How many hands needed to get a sense of your winrate?

In FR it seemed like 15k hands was good enough, but in 6-max there's a lot more varience. I was making like 20BB/100 over like 10k hands in 6-max while my brother who is just as good if not better than me was down after 15k hands! How many hands do you have to play in 6-max before you get a sense of what your winrate in the long run will be?

The long run is really long and your Win Rate is as much a function of table/seat/game selection as anything else.

100k

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

100k

lol

really hard to say as you're constantly playing in different games, against different players, while your game is adapting (and your opponents as well).

Lots.

Wow, i didn't think i'd get an answer like that... haha.

How about if you are a winning player? After how many hands should you most definitely be up if you play 200NL or less and your good enough to run 6 BB/100 in the long long run.

42.

Originally Posted by euphoricism

42.

The answer is obviously 69.

I played 500k hands of poker and I had run of 100k hands break even and 50k hands at 10bb/100.

So honestly, you can never say for sure what's your "real" winrate is.

Here's the problem.

Say you play 50k hands. Whats your winrate? Say its 6bb/100.

Now you play another 50k. Expect it to be 6bb/100? Havent you gotten better since then? Have you changed stakes?

Play another 50k. Are you the same player as you were during the first 50k? Are you playing the same stakes?

So if you look at the time period before your first hand of poker, and 200k hands later, youre not the same person. Youre not playing the same people, and hence your winrate is entirely meaningless.

I often wish PT had just thrown that little box out of the code.

Originally Posted by Zeraw30

I played 500k hands of poker and I had run of 100k hands break even and 50k hands at 10bb/100.

So honestly, you can never say for sure what's your "real" winrate is.

Welcome to the boards sir

I like the other box better. TRUE HOURLY WINRATE $$/HR that's how I know when I can quit my day job.

You do realize that fluctuates as much as your winrate, right?

yea but every time it's at $100/hr I think about calling in sick the next day.

I like the way you think.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by Irisheyes

100k

lol

Sorry Imissed a few zeros...

I ment infinity.

Everytime i look at my PT stats i wonder why i'm in college....

Originally Posted by Massimo

Everytime i look at my PT stats i wonder why i'm in college....

So you can understand those PT stats.

I'm glad to see this question is asked as much in this forum as it is in LHE. Frankly, I'm tired of answering.

There is no real answer to this question since it fluctuates so often.

95% confidence interval: winrate +/- 2*(standard deviation)/sqrt(#hands)

Make sure to get the units right.

That's just a typical math law, right?

can you get the standard deviation through PT?

You can, but I dont remember where.

Found it.

Sessions tab, more detail, its in the white box on the bottom of the screen that pops up.

It's usually around 40 bb/100.

Originally Posted by johnny_fish

It's usually around 40 bb/100.

That seems kinda low to me.