How often?

This is an experimental thread of a sort. All I want you to do is post a percentage answer x 3, no comment, no discussion, to the question below. I also want you to work out your answer before you read the rest of the thread, so that you're not influenced by that of others.

You have position on a $50NL/$100NL 6max table vs an unknown. You raise pre-flop and he calls. The flop has two of a suit on it. He check calls your 4/5 pot bet. Turn is raggy; again he check calls your 3/4 pot bet. River is a third of that suit (board is unpaired) and the villain bets:

a) 1/3 pot
b) 2/3 pot
c) all-in

How often, in percentage terms, does he have a made flush (any flush beats you in this example) in each case?

Please give your answers to a, b and c and then, once we've got 25 or so replies, I'll take an average. Remember, please decide on your answer before checking out what cocco_bill said

a) 50%

b) 70%

c) 80%

edit : kind of impossible to answer without reads, but oh well.

a) 40%
b) 60%
c) 20%

This is highly dependent on reads and stack sizes!

A) 40%
B) 70%
C) 80% - he is obv a check calling donk! I HIT A FLUSSSSH!!!

Check calling down and then betting out when a flush hits, fairly obv a flush high % of time, those DONKS!

a) 50%
b) 80%
c) 50%

Originally Posted by Hornsta9

c) 20%

I obviously give the Donks too much credit! DOH!!!!!

1. 40% (edited from 30%) 30% biatch

2. 75%

3. 65%


P.S wheres coco's post?

a) 40%

b) 75%

c) 60%

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

P.S wheres coco's post?

He hasn't made one yet but simply by asking that I know you've been cheating

Originally Posted by biondino

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

P.S wheres coco's post?

He hasn't made one yet but simply by asking that I know you've been cheating

hmmm, but my answers are diff from most others, although i admit i changed the first!

Edit: note P.S post script! doh!

Enough to the point where you're going to have to fold a lot to everyone of them except the 1/3rd pot bet.

40, 80, 81

a) 60 - I call here tho if I have a decent hand with showdown value
b) 80
c) 90

Why no discussion?

This is very inaccurate without reads:

50%
66%
85%

You don't have reads, he's unknown. The problem is that unless you're playing a game with mostly regs, most of your opponents are unknown. I made this choice intentionally because it happens so often.

Thanks to everyone who's replied so far - a few more over the weekend and I'll do the maths, and THEN we can have the discussion

not enough to fold
not enough to fold
not enough to fold