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I might be thinking too hard...

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  1. #1

    Default I might be thinking too hard...

    Villain is gith who i really haven't played much with lately but from a datamine i have him at 16/13/3 with 3-bet of 4%. I thought the call preflop is standard. I'm also really not sure whether he reacts to minraises by 3-betting more, less or the same.

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    SB ($945)
    BB ($1255)
    UTG ($2053)
    MP ($1133)
    CO ($1030)
    Hero (Button) ($1192)

    Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, J
    3 folds, Hero raises to $20, SB raises to $70, BB calls $60, Hero calls $50

    Flop: ($210) 10, 7, Q (3 players)
    SB bets $140, 1 fold, Hero folds

    Total pot: $210 | Rake: $3

    I thought my problem here is that i'm rarely calling this flop with a strong hand against this sort of action, and that's what he probably assumes. I'm not gonna call a double barrel. So i thought my range was ridiculously exploitable and most players will take advantage. But is this illogical in position?

    Also i considered that in itself his betting range is pretty damn strong.
  2. #2
    nutsinho's Avatar
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  3. #3
    If we're folding on a Q high board, and we're folding to most double barrels then I'd rather just fold pre really. No harm in that to such a big nit?
  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by nutsinho
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  5. #5
    "Also i considered that in itself his betting range is pretty damn strong. "

    Agree with this, I also am a firm believer that people do not think as deeply as you think they do, thus folding here and playing QJs this way is unexploitable vs 99% of regs.
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  6. #6
    pocketfours's Avatar
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    Default Re: I might be thinking too hard...

    btw if flop was 9, 8, Q, then I'd certainly play.
  7. #7
    I mean.. I really don't get why people aren't just saying to muck this pre. The guy is a mega nit with a 3-bet % of 4! If a lot of money gets in on any J high or Q high flop, we're never happy about it.

    The only flops that we like are like 9Tx or like spades. Even KT probably isn't great, as he'll prob have a piece that likes it and have little fold equity anyhow.

    meh.. I don't know... maybe I just fold to too many 3bets...
  8. #8
    mixchange's Avatar
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    G, cuz a lot of mega nits still like to 3bet a lot in the blinds and then play like a nit post flop
  9. #9
    I think he's a lot more aggro then that.
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  10. #10
    pocketfours's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by griffey24
    I mean.. I really don't get why people aren't just saying to muck this pre. The guy is a mega nit with a 3-bet % of 4! If a lot of money gets in on any J high or Q high flop, we're never happy about it.

    The only flops that we like are like 9Tx or like spades. Even KT probably isn't great, as he'll prob have a piece that likes it and have little fold equity anyhow.

    meh.. I don't know... maybe I just fold to too many 3bets...
    Getting huge pot odds for playing in position against predictable opponents with a hand that plays well in multiway pots. I don't mind a fold, but I certainly don't mind a call either.
  11. #11
    spew pre.
  12. #12
    Lol yeah forgot to comment I think it actually is a call pre but based on datamined 3bet% folding would seem more correct. Gith has always been pretty aggro versus me at least.
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  13. #13
    it was only like 200 mined hands fwiw
  14. #14
    this is too good for me
    when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
  15. #15
    random Q : are you raising a low flop with 2 spades?
    when the vpip's are high and the value bets are like razors, who can be safe?
  16. #16

    Default Re: I might be thinking too hard...

    Quote Originally Posted by Massimo
    I thought my problem here is that i'm rarely calling this flop with a strong hand against this sort of action, and that's what he probably assumes. I'm not gonna call a double barrel. So i thought my range was ridiculously exploitable and most players will take advantage.
    I think this is an argument for not folding on the turn if he bets again and / or slow-playing strong hands on this flop, not an argument for folding the flop.

    I think the main reason for folding the flop is just the fact that his range is super strong, like you mentioned.

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