i take an uncommon line (for me) with 66.

Villan is 17/15 over 60 hands, and that put together with what i observed he seems really TAGGY.

POKERSTARS GAME #8121150743: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/01/25 - 20:37:03 (ET)
Table 'Hamiltonia II' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Weak Tite ($92 in chips)
Seat 2: cjoli95 ($71 in chips)
Seat 3: Egopig ($70.35 in chips)
Seat 4: AlphaMale626 ($100 in chips)
Seat 5: redgrape ($204.95 in chips)
Seat 6: WonderCall ($124.55 in chips)
cjoli95: posts small blind $0.50
Egopig: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to redgrape [6h 6d]
AlphaMale626: raises $3 to $4
redgrape: calls $4
WonderCall: folds
Weak Tite: folds
cjoli95: folds
Egopig: folds
*** FLOP *** [2s 3d 9c]
AlphaMale626: bets $6
redgrape: calls $6
*** TURN *** [2s 3d 9c] [6s]
AlphaMale626: bets $16
redgrape: calls $16

When he bets the turn here, it's close to pot which makes me almost positive he has an overpair. If i raise here i think he could find a fold, but no matter what the river is, even if it's an Ace, he will most likely still bet out. And when i raise him there it would be really hard for him to fold.

That was my logic anyway, what do you think of it?




Results in White:
*** RIVER *** [2s 3d 9c 6s] [9d]
AlphaMale626: bets $74 and is all-in
redgrape: calls $74
*** SHOW DOWN ***
AlphaMale626: shows [3h 3c] (a full house, Threes full of Nines)
redgrape: shows [6h 6d] (a full house, Sixes full of Nines)
redgrape collected $198.50 from pot

Well he has 72 behind, this is tough. If he bets 30 on the river, which is probably what he's betting on the river he'll be committed to a raise. If a 4, 5 or spade A or possibly K comes it may kill your action. And that will come ~33% of the time. Now if you push the turn, which I think is the only other option, because raising to 45/ pushing is pretty much the same no?

So pretty much he's going to have to fold to your push 33% of the time for you not to push If my reasoning is correct and assuming the rest of the variable aren't as prevalent.

I probably do your line too, you didn't set the flop and therefore you're not going to represent those 9x's and lower overpairs that he'll want to put into your range to make your call so he may fold a lot.

I like to raise pretty small here, to something like $38.

This is a really tough hand! A min/raise seems in order because it will make river PSB. But if you guys have a history, he might smell a rat (I am assuming you don't min/raise much on the turn). Call doesn't seem to get all the moneys often enough, and a regular raise or push seems to scare him off his most typical holdings.

I guess if you think he's FOS, then calling is better, because he's usually folding but might bluff off another bet, or catch something on the river (not a straight hopefully!).

If he has an overpair... I think he calls a min/raise, so if that's your read, I think that's best.