Well he has 72 behind, this is tough. If he bets 30 on the river, which is probably what he's betting on the river he'll be committed to a raise. If a 4, 5 or spade A or possibly K comes it may kill your action. And that will come ~33% of the time. Now if you push the turn, which I think is the only other option, because raising to 45/ pushing is pretty much the same no?

So pretty much he's going to have to fold to your push 33% of the time for you not to push If my reasoning is correct and assuming the rest of the variable aren't as prevalent.

I probably do your line too, you didn't set the flop and therefore you're not going to represent those 9x's and lower overpairs that he'll want to put into your range to make your call so he may fold a lot.