I think I'm being stupid. Halp?

Since I am an abject failure at math... maybe someone can help me out here and point out where my thinking is stinkin'.

Folded to me in SB with AQo.
I 4x (16x left in my stack) BB calls. (8x pot)

Flop Kxx.

I cbet around 6x (10x left in my stack, 13x pot)

Villain shoves (29x in the pot and I have to call 10x, getting roughly 3:1). Assuming I'm behind to a one pair King, this leaves me with about 13% equity and 6 outs. 3:1 means I need 25% equity to break even, so this is a fold with half my stack in the pot?

Why does that sound wrong to me?

you're giving your opponent's range way too much credit

Originally Posted by euphoricism

(8x pot)

Flop Kxx.

I cbet around 6x (10x left in my stack, 13x pot)

Well that's kinda a failure at math because 8+6=14, not 13.

Anyway, if you already put in 10BB when villain shoves, you have to call 10BB to win 40BB so 25% to call. Let's say he almost always has a king here, that means you're drawing to 4 outs (or 0 if he has AK).. that's about 15% so you can indeed fold it.

Let's try a different range.. 10% has you drawing dead (AK, set,..), 50% Kx giving you 15% equity, 20% some draw that you can beat with A high, giving you ~65% equity, 20% some pp below the Q, giving you 8 outs or 30%.

0.5*15%+0.2*65%+0.2*30%=26.5%.. a range like this and you can start to consider calling

it's wrong because you're betting so you can price yourself to call.

Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi

it's wrong because you're betting so you can price yourself to call.

This is what I was thinking, but I've yet to be shown a worse hand yet.

Just a shitty spot. This is why I open shove in the SB so much ;p

Your wrong because opp's range isn't a King 100%, if I had to guess I'd give it a 70%.