I usually don't post hands like this...

I wasn't on my comp when i played this hand, so no HUD. I've played probably 50 hands with the villain so far and he seems pretty good and decently aggressive. I haven't seen him showdown a bluff or anything retarded.

Knowing that this guy is a TAGG and solid, i thought there was a good chance that he thought the Q was a good two barrel card for me. Also, he took about 10-15 seconds before shoving the river.

Obviously, this is a marginal situation. I doubt he shows up with AQ here, KQ possibly but not likely for a lot of reasons. I feel like my hand is really nothing but a bluff catcher. But, i also think that he's bluffing here about 15%-25% of the time (my best guess). So pretty much i answered my own question that the river is a fold, but i'd like to hear if your analysis is any different.

POKERSTARS GAME #117437225: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2007/08/28 - 17:14:30 (ET)
Table 'Tucana IV' 2-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: PIMP1111 ($883.60 in chips)
Seat 2: hero($207.50 in chips)
hero: posts small blind $1
PIMP1111: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hero [Ad Qc]
hero: raises $4 to $6
PIMP1111: calls $4
*** FLOP *** [Ts 7d 7c]
PIMP1111: checks
hero: bets $8
PIMP1111: calls $8
*** TURN *** [Ts 7d 7c] [Qs]
PIMP1111: checks
hero: bets $20
PIMP1111: raises $40 to $60
hero: calls $40
*** RIVER *** [Ts 7d 7c Qs] [3d]
PIMP1111: bets $809.60 and is all-in

looks like a 7 or a bluff to me. i kinda think hes bluffing here more than 15-25%. he could have easily picked up a draw on the turn and C/Red it then decided he was going to try to continue the bluff after he missed. I just think there are more hands that he could have that contain like a flush draw then hands with 7s. because hes not calling preflop with too many hands with a 7 in them is he? but i guess he isnt guranteed to play a draw like this either. overall i think you are getting good enough odds for this to be a profitable call but it does seem kinda close.

Turn is probably a fold and river yeah i have to fold here. The only hand we beat is 98s or J9s i would think. Considering how long he took i'd expect QT, or a really bad 7.

or KJ

he had that? that's the least likely of hands he could have IMO

no he didn't have KJ, i'm just saying it's possible.

Does anyone think QJ is possible?

Originally Posted by Massimo

no he didn't have KJ, i'm just saying it's possible.

Does anyone think QJ is possible?

if he thinks tp is the nuts.