impliedoddsaments

Its the age-old question.

6max 100NL, eff. stacks $150.

I'm SB with

:Qd:

UTG+1 raises $4, CO + D call, I reraise $15, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $11 more, CO folds + D calls.
pot probably $50 or so.

flop comes :Ks: :Ad:




checked around.

turn is the .




UTG+1 bets $35, D folds.

UTG+1 is standard taggy villain.

I got $100 behind.

What are my implied odds at this point, and how do I calculate them?
Assume laggtard villain. How do my implied odds change?

In both situations, WWYD?


edited to add 5d instead of 4d in my hand LOL

????


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It's pretty clear that he mistyped something...

It's likely that he was still on the 4flush draw, though, with 9 outs, and wants educated opinions on the spot. (That isn't me, so this is the end of my post)

I'm folding here i think. Basically you can only call if you're 100% sure he's going to stack off when that flush comes. If he's laggy, he probably isn't strong so you won't get enough of his chips on a diamond river to justify the call. Depends on your read though, and how loosely he calls 3-bets, he was the first raiser then flat called your re-raise - may have been going for a check-raise on that flop?

meh. UTG+1´s range should be quite narrow {AQs,66,44} and some weak pairs/KQ testing the waters. Problem is, that we cant really represent anything that plays for stacks on a diamond river beside running diamonds after we called turn.

The simple stuff says we need ~4:1. We're getting 85:35 pot odds. We need another 55 in on the river to break even. Against any half-way decent player, we have to muck. The only player we can call against here will be one that calls off a push fairly light, regardless of what the river is.

There's a chance we have to worry about reverse implied odds as well, if the player was slow playing a set or two pair.

I know this is kind of off-topic... but a push is probably a better play here. We repped huge strength pre, we could have been slow playing a set or AK. If V is capable of folding here (and I think his range is fairly polarized here between mid pairs and monsters) it might be a good spot for a push.

Originally Posted by dev

The simple stuff says we need ~4:1. We're getting 85:35 pot odds. We need another 55 in on the river to break even.

I think it's more like 5:1 which means we need $90 on the river to break even.

Originally Posted by XTR1000

meh. UTG+1´s range should be quite narrow {AQs,66,44} and some weak pairs/KQ testing the waters. Problem is, that we cant really represent anything that plays for stacks on a diamond river beside running diamonds after we called turn.

but what hands repop pf that have diamonds on this board?

so....

You have to call $35 into a $85 pot which is ~2.5:1 to win.

Odds of FD are 9/46 which is ~4:1.

So roughly we need to make up at least that 1.5:1 difference in odds on the river on average, so we need to make $55 (ish) on the river. With $100 effective stacks that seems reasonable, but it's close. I don't think it matters too much what you do here, it's a v. marginal spot.

You will notice that everything I wrote is approximate. I'm not good enough at maths to go into more detail in game so this is my thought process while playing amd the most helpful way to analyse since you can use this in the future.

44 games 0.005 secs 8,800 games/sec

Board: 6c Ks Ad 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 20.455% 20.45% 00.00% 9 0.00 { Qd5d }
Hand 1: 79.545% 79.55% 00.00% 35 0.00 { AsJs }

4:1

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

Originally Posted by dev

The simple stuff says we need ~4:1. We're getting 85:35 pot odds. We need another 55 in on the river to break even.

I think it's more like 5:1 which means we need $90 on the river to break even.

If he's got a set, the Kd and 6d aren't outs. They make his full house. Worst case here, we've got 7 outs from 46 remaining cards. Which is 5.4 to 1. But the 3 Q's are outs if he's playing JJ or TT like he's lost his mind.

All that said, imo, we've got to discount at least one of our flush outs to be realistic, so 5 to 1 is fair (probability of 8 / 46 => 4.75 to 1 odds).

Board: 6c Ks Ad 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 18.831% 18.83% 00.00% 348 0.00 { Qd5d }
Hand 1: 81.169% 81.17% 00.00% 1500 0.00 { QQ+, 66, AJs+, AJo+ }

But honestly, we're getting into awefully complicated territory for an on-the-spot decision. If he's got a set, not only do we lose outs, we also lose cards from the deck, meaning we're at 7/44, not 7/46. I don't know that there's a situation in game that calls for splitting hairs for implied odds. We still have to guestimate whether we can get paid on the river. This one is a fold or a push, I lean towards fold.

Originally Posted by dev

This one is a fold or a push, I lean towards fold.

ummmm sorry what? There are many players that this is a clear call against...

we're up against a "standard taggy villain". If we're sure the V will stack off on the river, yes it's a clear call. Against a tagg I think this is a push/fold spot.