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Interesting bluff catch possibility

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  1. #1

    Default Interesting bluff catch possibility

    Please read entire analysis because I feel the reads are important here.

    Opp is a HU reg who is a standard reg. I know he thinks highly of me as a player because he has told me this in the past. I have been playing very aggressively so far, he had been winning but has quickly began losing it all back. He is now down a little under a buy in.

    PokerStars Game #46816867669: Hold'em No Limit ($25/$50 USD) - 2010/07/15 14:19:06 PT [2010/07/15 17:19:06 ET]
    Table 'Bellona VI' 2-max Seat #1 is the button
    Seat 1: Opp ($5347.50 in chips)
    Seat 2: heybude ($8947 in chips)
    Opp: posts small blind $25
    heybude: posts big blind $50
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to heybude [Kh Kd]
    Opp: raises $100 to $150
    heybude: raises $350 to $500
    Opp: calls $350
    *** FLOP *** [3s 2d Qc]
    heybude: bets $450
    Opp: calls $450
    *** TURN *** [3s 2d Qc] [Ks]
    heybude: bets $1150
    Opp: calls $1150
    *** RIVER *** [3s 2d Qc Ks] [7s]
    heybude

    He's been calling my pre 3bets pretty loosely, I'd estimate only folding something like 40% of the time, opening 75% preflop, although I haven't checked quite yet as its still early in the session. He has folded to my flop cbets moderately.

    My guess is that he would not raise this flop with air against me because I am capable of rebluffing and because I'm "good." Therefore, if he continues in the hand with air, he would float.

    Now obviously this is a pretty standard 3 barrel with this hand given how obvious the turn and river cards are as good barreling cards. Given I've played very aggro so far I could also inspire a hero call. But given I have a semi deck crippling hand and my suspicion about him floating is checking the river and calling a shove better than betting?
    Last edited by IowaSkinsFan; 08-12-2010 at 01:05 PM.
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