Interesting hand almost 150BB

I feel this is interesting because all of the action i questionable. Note:I probably shouldn't have bet the flop, my MAIN QUESTION is what i should do against this raise.

original raiser is a looish TAGG, cold caller Dodgy Aces is a 25/20 over 130 hand sample. I have no reads that are pertinent to this situation at all.

My image is fine, no spews and i haven't been threebetting much.

POKERSTARS GAME #9683822477: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2007/04/30 - 15:08:03 (ET)
Table 'Clorinde' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: IMSUPERCREAL ($434.75 in chips)
Seat 3: Pestezz ($38.55 in chips)
Seat 4: dNoUnTkSe ($309 in chips)
Seat 5: DodgyAces ($288 in chips)
Seat 6: RoundersAP ($124.40 in chips)
RoundersAP: posts small blind $1
IMSUPERCREAL: posts big blind $2
Jamie217: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to IMSUPERCREAL [Qd Kh]
Pestezz: folds
dNoUnTkSe: raises $6 to $8
DodgyAces: calls $8
RoundersAP: folds
IMSUPERCREAL: raises $22 to $30
dNoUnTkSe: folds
DodgyAces: calls $22
*** FLOP *** [4s Kd 8s]
IMSUPERCREAL: bets $48
DodgyAces: raises $52 to $100
IMSUPERCREAL??

Im not sure that you can really fold to a min-raise here (or what is essentially a min raise)

I call and lead the turn. Though at that point you might be committed to call another raise.

I think the a minraise is the best play here IMO. It may seem donkish but this is a WA/WB situation, and the minraise just seems so weird to me from a reg.

and of course don't bet flop IMO, but i know that's not the question.

Fold.

This is a nitty response, but this is a re-raised pot and you are OOP with *maybe* 3 outs vs AK/AA. If you are ahead, reverse implied odds are bad.

There is NO reason for him to semi-bluff-min-raise since you have reppped AK+. Is he trying to fold QQ? Does he do this with TT-QQ?

My image is fine, no spews and i haven't been threebetting much.

If you had AK I think you could reasonably continue - but even then I think you are toast.

how is ak any different from KQ here zen?

Originally Posted by Genitruc

how is ak any different from KQ here zen?

AK is "only", for our purposes, behind AA

but KQ is behind AA and AK. And since there are more combinations of AK than AA, KQ is actually behind several more hands than AK would be.

Yah I guess i agree with Zen now, to fold, though it does seem super nitty folding to a min raise and in the moment I know I wouldn't do it. He cooooould show up with AQs here.. but now I'm just trying to find a reason to stick around.

very weird for 25/20 villain to flat call a 3 bet w AK

AA is much more likely than AK imo

I'm almost positive he doesn't have AK.

why is anyone putting him on AK/AA, that's like maybe 1% of the time.
His range: KJ, FD, 88, 44, air.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

why is anyone putting him on AK/AA, that's like maybe 1% of the time.
His range: KJ, FD, 88, 44, air.

AK and AA are very possible tho less likely than a lot of other hands. KJ KT and FD and sets are the most likely and I dont think you get away from TPGK here

Originally Posted by sauce123

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

why is anyone putting him on AK/AA, that's like maybe 1% of the time.
His range: KJ, FD, 88, 44, air.

AK and AA are very possible tho less likely than a lot of other hands. KJ KT and FD and sets are the most likely and I dont think you get away from TPGK here

ehhhh idk dude, I don't think your use to the nitty 200nl games.

i played 200nl today btw

200NL isn't nitty Danny what are you talking about...

Originally Posted by Massimo

200NL isn't nitty Danny what are you talking about...

compared to danny, everyone is nitty

From 95% of regs here you will never see anything less than 88/44

Ok, if i feel that i have to felt this, what is the best way to do it? Even if you disagree please answer.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

From 95% of regs here you will never see anything less than 88/44

I agree, and Dodgy is a wannabe lag type. He calls all day with any small pair here. If he is on a flush draw, why would he minraise? Doesn't he need to push to get enough folds for his draw to be +ev? Also on your squeeze amount, is this standard for you or anyone else? I usually squeeze 3.5x + 1 raise amount or $38 here. With the $9 worth of preflop dead money, are we really discouraging 44/88 from calling preflop when we he has to call $22?

If you want to proceed with the hand and win money I'd call and check both the turn and river

The "best" way to felt it and win $ depends what he does on turn. I,d suggest you not stack-a-donk the turn. Just call and shove the river for the pathetic leftover stack remaining.

Originally Posted by Genitruc

If you want to proceed with the hand and win money I'd call and check both the turn and river

LDO

i don't get calling, since there's not even a psb left. why not just push? or just fold if a flush draw is too unlikely?

if he has a flush draw he calls a push now. if he was bluffing with a worse pair i doubt he puts in any more without hitting a 2 outer.
if his range is only pairs id just fold, it's tough though since maybe he has a SC.

This is soooo often a set, and not enough times KJ, KT. Looking at it now I'd probably fold flop.

I dont mind betting the flop either.

if you were deeper I'd call and c/r a spade turn if you're cool

c/c is because he may still shove the turn as a pure bluff and idk that anyone here has the discipline to raise here and not shove turn even with a draw. the only thing he wonty shove with is KJ.

Also, I'd like to note that i think reraising here was bad because of this exact situation. When we're 150BB deep i'd rather be in a WA/WB situation than this one, and it's really hard to be in a WA/WB situation with KQ.

is this really KJ more likely than AK?

I don't think either are big chunks of his range, which seems likely mostly 44/88. I don't think he has a f/d because we have not been 3-betting light, so min/raising flop is a terrible semi-bluff.

call/check/check seems not much worth it to me since you have to dodge both a spade and a bet - but seems to be better than voluntarily putting more in this situation.

I guess KQ is about the same as AK here (for heros' hand) except you split with AK if he's being goofy, plus less likely he has AA.

It's very odd for a 25/20 to call twice pre-flop with ANYTHING. Almost seems like it has to be 44.

I SERIOUSLY doubt opponent has KJ or a FD. This is the easiest fold of the day, IMO. The fact that he had position and the guy before him folded (making the pot HU) puts AA and KK into his range. Based on his stats alone (I don't play stars) he would probably push those in a 3 way pot.

Based on preflop and flop play, his range is 44, 88, KK, AA, AK. Theres a lot of possibilities. You're not getting anywhere near enough odds to stack off here on the chance he has KQ or lower.

I like SmackinYaUp's reasoning. Plus, as Zen said, what is a 25/20 cold calling with preflop twice? Definately not KJ or a drawing hand me thinks.

Are griffey, Sauce, and me the only people who think i need to felt this?

Idk i keep looking over my HH's and seeing me minraise as a bluff mostly and think "wtf this looks so bluffy/blocky."

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Idk i keep looking over my HH's and seeing me minraise as a bluff mostly and think "wtf this looks so bluffy/blocky."

This is the crux of the issue. I think that different villians min/raise the flop differently. In fact, even good players do it as a mix up. To me, I think this SPECIFIC case is less likely a bluff/probe/block than a pot-build because it's a re-raised pot.

If you are in position and he check min/raises you - I think calling or 3-betting is better (than in the OOP case) because position on the turn is so important. The kinda guy who will probe-min-raise the flop is the kinda guy who will give up if you call and you can get a cheap showdown (which I think is kinda what you want with TPGK here).

There could be metagame reasons to felt this... but that depends (meta-meta game?)

The lighter you ve been 3-betting, the easier you can felt this.

If you haven't been 3-betting light there's no reason for villain to think you don't have JJ+ here

sidenote :

When I was playing vs regs on party I'd regularly minraise their c bets in 3-bet pots since their range was large and it was a very profitable move since they didn't know what to make of the minraise and figured I was a fish who'd never fold.