Interesting hand deep, 2/4.

Villain is definitely one of the tougher regs at 2/4, very creative and aggressive. I have him at 28/22 over 3.5k hands with an af of around 3.4 on every street. He's very cally both pre and post and hates folding to 3 bets (probably makes my 3 bet bad but whatever). He's helping me start a deep game and we've been playing for around 40 mins, in that time I've won 2 1/2 buy ins, none of which have gone to sd and it's obvious he's starting to tilt.

Thoughts on the turn/river? I'll share my thoughts after a few comments but in regards to the river I'm almost positive he'll turn aj and worse into a bluff and when I check it feels like I basically have no calling range bar 10s, which against this particular villain feels very exploitable, but on the flipside he has a ton of 10's in his range.


$2/$4 Ante $0.75 No Limit Holdem
FullTiltPoker
2 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com


Stacks:
SB ($898.50)
Hero ($1,797)



Pre-Flop: ($7.50, 2 players) Hero is BB
SB raises to $13.50, Hero raises to $48, SB calls $34.50



Flop: ($97.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $60, SB calls $60



Turn: ($217.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $162, SB calls $162



River: ($541.50, 2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets $436,

I have a slight preference for turn c/c, but I think a bet is fine as well.

On the river I think both calling every time and folding every time is exploitable. Do you think he bets 77/88/99 on the river for value? Kind of meh spot if he's tilted.

You have no idea what to do on the river because you don't know whether you're value betting or semi bluffing the turn. That's problematic in my mind.

If you want to 3bet this hand profitably though, pretty sure you need to make the right decisions in these spots otherwise you should really stay away from it I think.

I'm a little suspicious of his bet sizing on the river though given if he has Tx he wants a call and would have to be making it pot in some sort of attempt to level you into calling. I guess the reverse of that is he doesn't need to bet this big if he's going to bluff since you are likely trapping him if you have a ten and calling or are probably folding everything else to a bet of 120$ less.

Originally Posted by pocketfours

I have a slight preference for turn c/c, but I think a bet is fine as well.

On the river I think both calling every time and folding every time is exploitable. Do you think he bets 77/88/99 on the river for value? Kind of meh spot if he's tilted.

Yea I do think he bets 99/88/77 on the river for value, but I'm almost certain he'd have raised 77/88 on either the flop or turn, he plays nearly all of his stronger hands fast. The only hand I beat for value is 89 and due to his river timing (fairly quick, like 4 or 5 secs) + I'm unsure whether he'd bet it at all I think we can discount that.

Originally Posted by Marshall28

You have no idea what to do on the river because you don't know whether you're value betting or semi bluffing the turn. That's problematic in my mind.

If you want to 3bet this hand profitably though, pretty sure you need to make the right decisions in these spots otherwise you should really stay away from it I think.

I'm a little suspicious of his bet sizing on the river though given if he has Tx he wants a call and would have to be making it pot in some sort of attempt to level you into calling. I guess the reverse of that is he doesn't need to bet this big if he's going to bluff since you are likely trapping him if you have a ten and calling or are probably folding everything else to a bet of 120$ less.

My thoughts on betting the turn were that he's really cally, and will obv view the king as a card I will always barrel with air thus he'll call another street with 99/1010, 8x,7x. If the river is a huge brick that neither improves me or his range I planned to check and I'm fairly sure he'll be content with whatever sd value he has, will think I'm giving up and check back. Another reason I wanted to bet is I hate giving up the initiative vs this particular villain as he's the type to just go into monkey bet mode with weak sd value on this turn then bet big on alot of river's and I won't have a clue where I am in the hand unimproved. While the pro's of me betting are for value when I'm ahead, setting up a bigger pot when I spike a club and I can basically check/snap off his jam when the river's a 10/jack, 2 cards that he'll always go crazy on, the turn bet is a range merge of sorts also balancing for the times I have air.


Though the cons are I have no idea what to do when he raises the turn, it's very doubtful I'd fold just because he's easily capable of raising this turn with alot of hands as a bluff/semi bluff. I.e. a few hands previously he'd flatted my 4 bet oop, raised my $126 c bet on a j57 two d's flop to $308 then folded to a jam for 400ish more. Yet when I do get it in I'm often drawing to 20ish % equity.

On the river it feels really lame/exploitable to fold but I also picked up on his river sizing feeling it was strong, plus he does have tons of 10x in his range so I think a fold is best.


Are my thoughts off?

I think something like 50% call and 50% fold is fine here and you should choose when to call and when to fold based on how high up in your range your current hand is. That's a good starting point at least if you can't figure out how to exploit him better.

I'd fold here.

i'd also fold your flop and turn range is perceived as pretty strong. He also does have a lot of hands with T's in his range (he may recognize this but i feel like a bluff is probably gonna be a shove).

What was your reasoning for 3betting j9s? I'd only 3bet this hand if his calling range was pretty polarized.

Originally Posted by Numbr2intheWorld

i'd also fold your flop and turn range is perceived as pretty strong. He also does have a lot of hands with T's in his range (he may recognize this but i feel like a bluff is probably gonna be a shove).

What was your reasoning for 3betting j9s? I'd only 3bet this hand if his calling range was pretty polarized.

No particular reasoning, just clicking buttons, 3 betting deep vs this particular guy with j9s is fairly meh.

You realize the only air in your range here for betting the turn is AQ/AT/QT/Q9/56 right?

AQ and Q9 are the only ones that don't have a straight by the river.

I just don't think a bluff range that small needs a hand like J9 here to merge in order to be balanced.

If you are so sure he'll bomb the turn if checked to w/ weak SD value but unsure of what to do on a lot of rivers, I'd prefer to do something silly on the turn like bet 80$ or even smaller in order to induce him to turn some of those hands into bluffs so that I could then shove over and he'll sit there feeling owned really often. The other benefit to this is that if he just calls, your river situation is much improved and it's much less of a big deal to fold since the pot isn't nearly as big. (Also his range will be well defined as quite weak if he just flats).

Originally Posted by Marshall28

You realize the only air in your range here for betting the turn is AQ/AT/QT/Q9/56 right?

I think this is besides the point. It's not like villain is jamming this river trying to get us off air. I think the bigger point is that most people here aren't balanced (ie: rarely checking with Tx here) so once we check he almost knows (or at least strongly assumes) that we never have a straight, so can pretty confidently jam most of his range.

That being said, the only hands that would really need to bluff here are probably QJ and AJ. All his other hands have the straight or two pairs that will check back.

I'd fold, and like P4's said, probably call with some of my stronger hands like sets.