Intersting hand with thoughts on all streets

100NL with 102bb stax.

1 fold, 19/14/3 standard TAG opens to $3.50 in MP. I have 500ish hands on him but I've never really noticed him before. Probably pretty unimaginative. CO folds and I cold call with K Q OTB. Blinds fold.

Thoughts on preflop? Traditionally I just 3bet/fold here, mostly folding because his stats err on the side of too tight to 3bet. However I've been trying to open myself up to the option of calling because I've been trying to experiment with taking flops away from people.

Flop: A 7 7 Pot: $8.50
He cbets for $6, I flat call.

Personally I think this float is bad because I think the Ace is the most likely card in the deck for him to hit but I've been seeing so many posts recently on 2+2 etc. where people are advocating c/r bluffing or generally getting tricky on A/K high flops that I decided to call. Thoughts?

Turn: 8 Pot: $20.50
He checks, I bet $14.35.

I believe that this is fine as it stands. However I am of the opinion that if I'm going to bet this turn in this spot then I need to follow up on the river a high percentage of the time because I can see him calling one street with an ace-good-kicker a lot but rather rarely will he call two streets. Thoughts?

He calls the turn bet.

River: 5 Pot: $49
He leads for $15.

Here basically this bet means to me that he has a pair of aces with a not-so-good kicker and he wants to deter me from making further aggressive action because his hand can't call a big bet. Is there another way to interpret this bet?

Based on my interpretation of the situation I decide to shove all in. He has $67 left to call and after my shove the pot is ~$140.

is he a good hand reader?
you're representing: 77,88, A7s, AT+
is he gonna believe you and fold his weak ace?

I may just fold preflop.

On the flop i definetely fold. On the turn i definetely dont bet. I don't hate your river play, i kind of like it as played.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

On the turn i definetely dont bet.

Why not? I think he folds enough to make it profitable. Could you explain what's wrong with my reasoning given below.

Let's say he raises PF with ATs, AJ+, 22+, KQs, and he c-bets this flop with everything except 77, JJ+. Are these good assumptions for a tight TAG? Most of the time he'd check the turn with 22-66, 99, TT, KQs (44 combos) planning on folding to a bet. Most of the time he'd check with ATs and AJ (15 combos) planning on calling a bet, and he'd sometimes bet and sometimes check with AQ, AK, AA, 88, 77 (31 combos) obviously not folding to a bet.

Even if he checks every single time with those 31 monsters, a bet still wins the pot 44/90 so it's a clear bet. When you take into account that he often bets with his monsters it's even more clear of a bet.

I like 3bet/fold pre.. flop, idk, I think it's close.. I thought turn was standard but obviously not..

.. River is superawesomestandard.

Originally Posted by mcatdog

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

On the turn i definetely dont bet.

Why not? I think he folds enough to make it profitable. Could you explain what's wrong with my reasoning given below.

Let's say he raises PF with ATs, AJ+, 22+, KQs, and he c-bets this flop with everything except 77, JJ+. Are these good assumptions for a tight TAG? Most of the time he'd check the turn with 22-66, 99, TT, KQs (44 combos) planning on folding to a bet. Most of the time he'd check with ATs and AJ (15 combos) planning on calling a bet, and he'd sometimes bet and sometimes check with AQ, AK, AA, 88, 77 (31 combos) obviously not folding to a bet.

Even if he checks every single time with those 31 monsters, a bet still wins the pot 44/90 so it's a clear bet. When you take into account that he often bets with his monsters it's even more clear of a bet.

Only think i disagree with is him folding TT/99 to a bet, but other than that i think you're right. So I'm probably wrong.

How is the shove so small?

In a 100nl game the only players calling this a re people who know that if your good you wouldnt play a 7 this way much (you simply make it too easy for him to fold)
Also, he may not even fold AK here. Add to that its a hero call with hands like TT-KK here when again you possibly wouldnt push Ax hands so hard (AK/AQ are the exceptions i think, AK especially)

At these stakes i like it because it forces opp to call under a lot of pressure, folds all his hands that are good but cant call here (ATs/AJsTT-KK) without a solid read.

Seems utterly standard when UTG either has a big ace or nothing that can call here considering most of his range should be ATs+all PPs.

Id be interested in how you play the river if its a spade, although i guess its a mute point because the turn plays so differently as opp should fire second barrel there.

u should fold this flop or make it $16 against this player

Originally Posted by Massimo

How is the shove so small?

I have $78 left on the river.

Originally Posted by mcatdog

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

On the turn i definetely dont bet.

Why not? I think he folds enough to make it profitable. Could you explain what's wrong with my reasoning given below.

Let's say he raises PF with ATs, AJ+, 22+, KQs, and he c-bets this flop with everything except 77, JJ+. Are these good assumptions for a tight TAG? Most of the time he'd check the turn with 22-66, 99, TT, KQs (44 combos) planning on folding to a bet. Most of the time he'd check with ATs and AJ (15 combos) planning on calling a bet, and he'd sometimes bet and sometimes check with AQ, AK, AA, 88, 77 (31 combos) obviously not folding to a bet.

Even if he checks every single time with those 31 monsters, a bet still wins the pot 44/90 so it's a clear bet. When you take into account that he often bets with his monsters it's even more clear of a bet.

thanks for that.

Originally Posted by sauce123

u should fold this flop or make it $16 against this player

Can you explain why this is please?

I don't mind the turn/river play, but I also don't think he's folding an ace very often.

The problem I think is your range vs what you're trying to rep.

His weak ace loses to a strong ace, but based on your preflop play he probably doesn't put you on an ace thats willing to felt 3-streets like this.

His weak ace loses to a 7, but based on your flop call you likely don't have this (I'd imagine you'd raise a 7 on this flop since he'd have a hard time believing you? ... which may be why sauce is advocating raising this flop)

Maybe you got there with 88, but thats pretty unlikely. Also the paired board probably makes him think he's worst case chopping with most of your aces, since its unlikely you have many aces better than A8 due to preflop.

If you think he can believe you slowplayed a 7 here, then I don't mind it.