J-J Middle Pos On a table full of Regs

Was playing on my last orbit since the table turned into one full of Regs. Then I was caught up on this hand. How often should I call this pre to make this profitable? Thoughts or in-depth analysis is appreciated.

UTG: 21/20 over 250 hands
SB: 24/19/9.1 over 500 hands

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

Hero (CO) ($98.25)
Button ($117)
SB ($111.75)
BB ($91.50)
UTG ($106.50)
MP ($118.50)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J, J
UTG bets $3.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $3.50, 1 fold, SB raises $14.50, 2 folds

Hero?????

Total pot: $11.50

I don't usually play cash games, so take this with a grain of salt.

As played I would 4b shove here.
1) SB is squeezing a fair lot here, as suggested by his fairly high aggression factor (if I'm reading those stats right, goddamn huds)
2) JJ is too strong to setmine with it
3) UTG, which is the one we should fear the most, laid down.
4) Stacksizes are wrong, as in if you bet anything meaningful, more than 1/3 of your stack should go in the pot making you committed anyway.
5) Your play can be interpreted as either weakness or trappyness.
6) Pot is already worth winning (?)

A shove in this spot should be very profitable, especially with the description that SB is a reg and knows a thing or two supposedly.
Some could argue that a smaller 4b is prefferable, saving you some money when SB is not bullshitting. But see point 4 (and 1).

Even better would be to 3b raise yourself instead of flatting in the first place.

If his 3 bet is in fact 9 then shove is fine. If not folding is fine as well.

if the 24/19 guy doesnt fold to 4bets ( i guess u have a smallish sample )
then getting it in is prob cool...

depending on his post-flop stats you could see a flop... for instance if he's passive post flop and doesn't cbet/barrel etc that much it'll be quite easy to play.

AS AN ASIDE: if i use the HEM large popup window in game, is there a way to get a "Squeeze" stat in there? i dont seem to have this. just 3bet% by position...

Originally Posted by Jack Sawyer

I don't usually play cash games, so take this with a grain of salt.

As played I would 4b shove here.
1) SB is squeezing a fair lot here, as suggested by his fairly high aggression factor (if I'm reading those stats right, goddamn huds)
2) JJ is too strong to setmine with it
3) UTG, which is the one we should fear the most, laid down.
4) Stacksizes are wrong, as in if you bet anything meaningful, more than 1/3 of your stack should go in the pot making you committed anyway.
5) Your play can be interpreted as either weakness or trappyness.
6) Pot is already worth winning (?)

A shove in this spot should be very profitable, especially with the description that SB is a reg and knows a thing or two supposedly.
Some could argue that a smaller 4b is prefferable, saving you some money when SB is not bullshitting. But see point 4 (and 1).

Even better would be to 3b raise yourself instead of flatting in the first place.

All your points makes perfect sense. But in a $100 cash, I just don't see why SB would squeeze anything but premium cards especially against an UTG reg. Or maybe he has an idea of the UTG range based on history?? I know I can't just call, but anyone else thinks a 4 bet shove is fine still even though I just smooth called UTG raise?? He could be doing this with 99-1010 as well...

Originally Posted by bspahn

if the 24/19 guy doesnt fold to 4bets ( i guess u have a smallish sample )
then getting it in is prob cool...

depending on his post-flop stats you could see a flop... for instance if he's passive post flop and doesn't cbet/barrel etc that much it'll be quite easy to play.

AS AN ASIDE: if i use the HEM large popup window in game, is there a way to get a "Squeeze" stat in there? i dont seem to have this. just 3bet% by position...

Hmm...I think he shoves with A-K,AA,99,ect on any flop which will put me in a difficult spot on any board. I don't know if calling pre is good.

But to answer you SQUEEZE stat, on the main HEM window choose HUD Options -> Player Preferences. Under Available Stats, you can add Squeeze to the player stats.

Two things.

Three bet this preflop IP A four bet from the small blind means a little more in that case.

As played I guess I fourbet preflop but Im not happy about it. I feel that of your thinking about calling a three bet than you should have been the one to three bet preflop.

Dont ever flat this please as played. IMHO

Originally Posted by The Izebox

Two things.

Three bet this preflop IP A four bet from the small blind means a little more in that case.

As played I guess I fourbet preflop but Im not happy about it. I feel that of your thinking about calling a three bet than you should have been the one to three bet preflop.

Dont ever flat this please as played. IMHO

Good point. Probably made the mistake of not 3betting this pre now that I think about it

Originally Posted by bspahn

AS AN ASIDE: if i use the HEM large popup window in game, is there a way to get a "Squeeze" stat in there? i dont seem to have this. just 3bet% by position...

switch your 3bet pop up stat from old style pop-up to the preflop default in player preferences

No don't 3 bet just because it makes your life easier.

If you are 3 betting an utg raiser it's because you are gonna get called by worse / can get it all in preflop ahead more often than not. Very doubtful that that's the case here.

You should have a better idea of his 3 betting range / dynamic before you consider doing anything other than folding.

i would call, i don't understand shoving vs what seems like a smart player squeezing a utg open.

i agree with not 3betting pre, very few taggs open UTG and play back hard at UTG+1 or CO 3bets with junk... i'm generally 3betting QQ+/AK against tagg UTG raises UNLESS they specifically call 3bets with a wide range AND don't 4bet much (then 3bet liberally w TT/JJ/AQ etc )

I think in this spot after shoving a few times I realized that people are not usually squeezing TT and calling a shove, and just call with worse hands like that

so a call is probably better

Yeah I'm sure you can play super profitably going call call preflop... Good luck with that.

Thanks everyone! Bleh, I just love these tough decisions in poker...even pre-flop will fry your brain like scrambled eggs.

I dont know of theres one right answer here. I always three bet jacks preflop so ive never been in this position before...so what did you end up doing anyway?

Originally Posted by meeloche

Yeah I'm sure you can play super profitably going call call preflop... Good luck with that.

In position, sure
we're keeping his range wide and we're probably going to call or raise his cbet, depending on the board

we probably get value from people who cbet once in 3b pots and give up
against people who barrel a lot in 3b pots we can probably take one off on the flop with an overpair and call turn jam

Originally Posted by The Izebox

I dont know of theres one right answer here. I always three bet jacks preflop so ive never been in this position before...so what did you end up doing anyway?

this is one of those leaks someone was talking about in another thread. auto default 3betting JJ, especially vs an UTG raiser is not going to be a profitable play vs the majority of villains.

calling pre is better then 3betting here imo.

bode-

But if im making a good profit off of it (2.54 big bets per hand), then why is it "a major leak"?

I thought a leak was something that made you lose money...man this poker thing is hard!

Originally Posted by The Izebox

bode-

But if im making a good profit off of it (2.54 big bets per hand), then why is it "a major leak"?

I thought a leak was something that made you lose money...man this poker thing is hard!

no, a leak could be something that makes you less money than you would have otherwise made

I mean a donk is probably positive on AA, but does that mean they play it right?

think about it as one way makes 2.54 but another makes 12.54