JJ faces weird line on wet board.

[Carroters]

Villain is 27/17 over 60 hands and has been minraising pre, calling 3 bets lightly and looks pretty fishy in general. I feel like I should maybe call here solely because of how much his flop line looks line a draw. The 7 sucks though because he calls wide enough pre to have a few in his range.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.834% 38.83% 00.00% 393 0.00 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 61.166% 61.17% 00.00% 619 0.00 { 66, 33, AdQd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ah8h, A7s, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdQd, KdTd, 87s, 76s }

If there are this many fds then obviously we can snap this quite happily getting a good price. My intention was to b/f the turn though because he didn't seem too aggro and normally when a fish min bet/calls the flop with a draw they play passively and try to make their hand.

Thoughts.

$0.25/$0.50 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Hero ($56.25)
UTG+1 Cloud990 ($95.75)
CO aztuonauta ($60.15)
BTN biggjohnnyy ($48.50)
SB Lockk ($101.50)
BB SevSlon ($49.90)

Pre-Flop: ($0.75, 6 players) Hero is UTG
Hero raises to $2, 4 folds, SevSlon calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.25, 2 players)
SevSlon bets $0.50, Hero raises to $4, SevSlon calls $3.50

Turn: ($12.25, 2 players)
SevSlon checks, Hero bets $9.50, SevSlon goes all-in $43.90, Hero?

[shakesss]

I dont think you can call here. Your line looks strong, your sizing is strong, and he check raised all in. I think he shows up with like A7, 78, 57, 47 sort of stuff really often. Since you did bet i like the size. It gives u enough info about his hand. Fish snap shove spots like this because they think ur too committed to fold.

I think i would check behind the turn and make my decision depending on the river card.

[minSim]

I play it the same and fold now. Villain has a lot of better hands in his range and it's definately a line fish take with strong hands.

[Dex]

Any reads on villains play postflop?

Do you really see a lot (enough?) of donkish players shoving flush draws on the turn, especially when the board pairs like this?

Bet/fold is obviously fine however I don't mind checking back the turn and looking at calling a reasonable bet on the river or vbetting if checked to. When the turn pairs the high card on this board you're unlikely to get 3 streets in good vs calls if his range is top pair, tp+gutshot, pair+gutshot or flush draws, so checking back still gives you 2 streets plus an increased opportunity to see villain's hand. You can maybe add in overpairs like 88, 99 but I doubt he c/shoves them on the turn and I can see a tard having a better overpair sometimes too. Plus if we're bet/folding turn we're only committing to 2 streets anyway, so it's essentially the same thing except we get closer to showdown and allow villains bricked flush draws on the river to go lolBET!

[baudib]

I check behind and look to call a bet on a blank river...you do run the risk of getting bluffed off by a worst hand but when even when we're ahead we're usually not that far ahead of stuff like Ad6d or 9s8s and obviously we're destroyed by 7x.

[oskar]

I play it the same and fold the turn. On a dryer board I would consider calling and hope he bombs the turn, because his mindonking range is so weak and will fold to a raise a lot, and fail that he'll c/f the turn most of the time.

I don't like checking back the turn. he has 6x or 55, 44, 22 a whole lot there imo.
I disagree that the flop line looks like a draw. It could be a draw, but it's also a lot of weak hands or AK high type stuff.

[eragotte]

imo the boats are alot less likely now, the 7 makes him less worried about the draws so if he wanted to slowplay a flopped set why would he stop slowplaying now that it is safe?

Now I think 7x is very likely but all signs point to him being fishy which makes me want to put 44-55 88-AA is in range much more so than 66 and 33. I call.

I don't like checking back the turn. he has 6x or 55, 44, 22 a whole lot there imo.
I disagree that the flop line looks like a draw. It could be a draw, but it's also a lot of weak hands or AK high type stuff.

this too.

[aka_red]

what is your sizing on the turn trying to accomplish?

[Carroters]

what is your sizing on the turn trying to accomplish?

Maximising value from draws that I thought he was likely to c/c and made up a pretty sizable part of his range. I also didn't think he was folding 88-TT or 6x to this sizing so I get more value from them too.

Was there something you don't like about it specifically?

[nutsinho]

very bad turn sizing. probably fold now

[Carroters]

Can someone expalin why it's bad to me please?

[nutsinho]

you are giving a horrible price to draws and weak hands so your equity vs his continuing range is very poor compared to your equity against his continuing range if you bet half pot. you narrow his c/c range to just a few hands you beat while his c/r range will probably contain more draws yet still have you burned. this is not to say that your jacks arent very strong heading into the turn action but in way ahead/way behind situations your sizing simply must be smaller. yes there are two flush draws but when you are at the turn and the board is paired you must consider that you are wa/wb the vast majority of the time

[shakesss]

you are giving a horrible price to draws and weak hands so your equity vs his continuing range is very poor compared to your equity against his continuing range if you bet half pot. you narrow his c/c range to just a few hands you beat while his c/r range will probably contain more draws yet still have you burned. this is not to say that your jacks arent very strong heading into the turn action but in way ahead/way behind situations your sizing simply must be smaller. yes there are two flush draws but when you are at the turn and the board is paired you must consider that you are wa/wb the vast majority of the time

This makes a lot of sense. Before reading this i thought that ur sizing was good, but it turns out that i thought it was good coz it makes it easier to fold our hand, or his. Meanwhile, nutsinho's line is trying to maximize our profit.

[Carroters]

Thanks for the explanation nuts. I understand what you're saying and Vs a reg or more solid player there's no way I'm ever betting this much. I guess I got greedy due to his stationy fishy appearance and didn't expect him to fold any of his draws or even many of his weak made hands. if you think he will be folding a lot of these then I'll take that into account.

Shakess - my intention was also trying to maximise profit, I may just be off on my estimation of his continuing range to this bet size. When you say you thought it was good betting large becasue I'm expecting him to fold his hand a lot to a big bet: that just makes no sense at all since i'm value betting and ahead of what i exepct his calling range to be. He folds nothing better, ever, so yeah, I'm glad you realised that isn't a reason to bet big here, because it's like the opposite of what we're trying to do on this turn.

[shakesss]

Thanks for the explanation nuts. I understand what you're saying and Vs a reg or more solid player there's no way I'm ever betting this much. I guess I got greedy due to his stationy fishy appearance and didn't expect him to fold any of his draws or even many of his weak made hands. if you think he will be folding a lot of these then I'll take that into account.

Shakess - my intention was also trying to maximise profit, I may just be off on my estimation of his continuing range to this bet size. When you say you thought it was good betting large becasue I'm expecting him to fold his hand a lot to a big bet: that just makes no sense at all since i'm value betting and ahead of what i exepct his calling range to be. He folds nothing better, ever, so yeah, I'm glad you realised that isn't a reason to bet big here, because it's like the opposite of what we're trying to do on this turn.

Thanks for pointing that our Carroters. You articulated what i was thinking much better than i did. Good post. Great insight.

[Dragon Slayer]

you are giving a horrible price to draws and weak hands so your equity vs his continuing range is very poor compared to your equity against his continuing range if you bet half pot. you narrow his c/c range to just a few hands you beat while his c/r range will probably contain more draws yet still have you burned. this is not to say that your jacks arent very strong heading into the turn action but in way ahead/way behind situations your sizing simply must be smaller. yes there are two flush draws but when you are at the turn and the board is paired you must consider that you are wa/wb the vast majority of the time

Damn son, this is gold. But yea Car-dawg I think its pretty safe to fold. I would have played the same way until reading Nuts post.

[mixchange]

Wow, pretty awesome explanation Nuts, your posts in this thread help me think way outside my robot box, if only for a little bit

[minSim]

Great reply nuts, thanks.

[larsmars]

I don't think you're putting villain on the correct range of hands. I agree that his flop line looks like a draw, but once he pushes turn I think you should at best limit the draws in his range to 6dXd and AdKd (which of course the fish play completely different from any other AdXd). Especially since you said he didn't seem too aggro. Also you excluded 45 for the flopped nuts, and my personal favourite AA.

I would fold this against passive/fishy player and don't worry too much about it.