A-K0 200NL OOP RR Pot

Villain is 18/12/3.5 over 50 hands. I have 3bet 2-3 times already in 5 or so orbits, so my image may be that of a slightly reckless player.

Hero: ($227.65 in chips)
Villain$240.90 in chips)
4 other players

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero: [Kc As]
2 folds
Villain: raises $4 to $6
2 folds
Hero: raises $22 to $28
Villain: calls $22
*** FLOP *** [8c Ks Td]
Hero: bets $46
Villain: calls $46
*** TURN *** [8c Ks Td] [Qh]
Hero: checks
Villain: bets $70
Hero: ?

Obvious i am beat, right?

Villain flips JJ more often than you think here.

What's he repping that beats you, KK (unlikely, 3 combos), TT (would've raised the flop), J9? AJ? Would someone that nitty call a light 3bet with AJs? Would AJs call that flop (probably not). QQ, it's possible because villain is nitty, he might not 4bet QQ, but again look at the flop action he'd have to put you on a pair worse than TT or AQ to call. So what hands check call the flop, that flat call your 3bet. Yup, you guessed it AQ, AJ, JJ. You're beating 2 of those 3 hands. Easy turn call, re-eval on the river. If he goes nuclear on the river, fold.

villan could definetly have slowplayed 1010... AJ I dont think calls pf usually. QQ is def a possibilty. i guess slowplayed 88 too against some players. maybe AQ sometimes which is the only thing besides JJ that you beat. or he could possibly have AK too.
so basically yea i think you are behind his range here.
but i think bet/folding it would have been better.

Uhhh....


Board: Ks Td Qh 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.646% 38.74% 08.90% 716 164.50 { AsKc }
Hand 1: 52.354% 43.45% 08.90% 803 164.50 { TT+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+, KQo }

Originally Posted by Fnord

Uhhh....


Board: Ks Td Qh 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.646% 38.74% 08.90% 716 164.50 { AsKc }
Hand 1: 52.354% 43.45% 08.90% 803 164.50 { TT+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+, KQo }

Yeah exactly, so much more can be in play here as fnord notes!! Also remember opp doesnt actually have as tight a range as some are predicting bcoz since you have played back at him alot in a few orbits then opp will open up his range somewhat.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Uhhh....


Board: Ks Td Qh 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.646% 38.74% 08.90% 716 164.50 { AsKc }
Hand 1: 52.354% 43.45% 08.90% 803 164.50 { TT+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+, KQo }

I would not have imagined my hand would do so well against villains range in this spot. I did my own Pokerstove, and slightly adjusted villains range, to give villain half of the K-K/A-A combinations, and threw in some SC's for the flop float.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,584 games 0.005 secs 316,800 games/sec

Board: Ks Td Qh 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.758% 41.29% 09.47% 654 150.00 { AsKc }
Hand 1: 49.242% 39.77% 09.47% 630 150.00 { AcAs, AdAs, AhAs, KcKs, KdKs, KhKs, QQ, TT, 88, AKs, ATs, KQs, 86s-85s, AKo, ATo, KQo }


I was thinking about something that i think sbrugby said in a CR video; "never fold A-K in a RR pot if you flop TP or better". I thought this situation might not apply, but it clearly does. Thanks for the feedback guys.

you cant fold here for 1/2 pot bet

why are you raising so much pf in position?

he's out of position, but yeah the 3bet is pretty big.