KK, 200bbs horrible line.

Games looked good, so i dropped in.
30/9 over 200~hands, his showdown% is crap and he doesnt buy in 200bbs deep like many regs, but only 100bbs deep.

Push river...?

Absolute Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($726.30)
MP ($406.90)
CO ($204.25)
Button ($808)
SB ($775.10)
BB ($513.95)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K, K.
Hero raises to $16, 3 folds, SB calls $14, 1 fold.

Flop: ($36) 7, T, 2 (2 players)
SB bets $44, Hero calls $44.

Turn: ($124) 6 (2 players)
SB bets $84, Hero calls $84.

River: ($292) 2 (2 players)
SB bets $144, Hero thinks about a value raise...?

Unless he triple barrel bluffs a board like this with a high frequency, his most likely holdings are 7-7/10-10, and also 8-9.

I like just calling the flop, and to me raising/shoving the turn just forces worse hands out - the draw came in - so you lose value from hands like 10-x.

IMO this spot just sucks and i think your line is fine.

You need 25% equity to call on the river, but need >25% equity to make shoving +EV. How much of his range consists of 10-x? Without any notes i wouldn't assume 10-x made up even that much of his range, since that hand almost always checks the river.

I think you can fold this river...

SB bets $144, Hero thinks about a fold...?

FYP

I don't see how we are ahead here. After the turn it's obvious you have an overpair and will call any river bet. A 10 checks this river. I only see a made turn straight and a set playing it this way.

He is trying to get an assload of money in on the flop and turn and value bets the river. Raising this river is bad. If he is more of a donk than you make it out to be from your read, then by all means go for it.

This is a really shitty spot and I'm not sure what the best play is on any street . I think I play it this way most of the time, often folding river.

no

Good line call river.

he flipped up JJ, i considered a river fold fwiw.

Originally Posted by Vi-Zer0Skill

You need 25% equity to call on the river, but need >25% equity to make shoving +EV.

Surely we need >50% equity to make a shove better than a call.

edit: In fact we dont even need >50% equity against his river range. we need >50% equity against his shove calling range.

I think once we just call the flop and turn we can't really raise river.

Originally Posted by Pelion

Originally Posted by Vi-Zer0Skill

You need 25% equity to call on the river, but need >25% equity to make shoving +EV.

Surely we need >50% equity to make a shove better than a call.

edit: In fact we dont even need >50% equity against his river range. we need >50% equity against his shove calling range.

We are getting 3:1 pot odds on this river bet. So, if we need approximately 25% equity to call and villain is never folding to a river shove, then shoving becomes +EV if we have >25% equity.

Originally Posted by Vi-Zer0Skill

We are getting 3:1 pot odds on this river bet. So, if we need approximately 25% equity to call and villain is never folding to a river shove, then shoving becomes +EV if we have >25% equity.

I dont understand that logic. If we have 25% equity then that means we expect to be behind but are calling for pot odds. In order for a shove to be better than calling there need to be more hands that call us and lose, than call us and win.

In this hand his range is bla and we have 25% equity. We win one time for every 3 times we lose. Getting 3:1 from the pot makes a call fine 0EV.

But we have 3 more behind to shove. When we shove we still expect to win 25% since he never folds. Also our effective pot odds 6:4 since we now win 6 every time were ahead and lose 4 every time were behind.

So the 3 times we lose well lose 4 for a total of -12. The one time we win well win 6 for +6. Total EV in -6 which sucks.

All weve done is decided we are probably losing, decided we have good pot odds, and then decided to make our pot odds worse for some reason.

Originally Posted by Pelion

Originally Posted by Vi-Zer0Skill

We are getting 3:1 pot odds on this river bet. So, if we need approximately 25% equity to call and villain is never folding to a river shove, then shoving becomes +EV if we have >25% equity.

I dont understand that logic. If we have 25% equity then that means we expect to be behind but are calling for pot odds. In order for a shove to be better than calling there need to be more hands that call us and lose, than call us and win.

In this hand his range is bla and we have 25% equity. We win one time for every 3 times we lose. Getting 3:1 from the pot makes a call fine 0EV.

But we have 3 more behind to shove. When we shove we still expect to win 25% since he never folds. Also our effective pot odds 6:4 since we now win 6 every time were ahead and lose 4 every time were behind.

So the 3 times we lose well lose 4 for a total of -12. The one time we win well win 6 for +6. Total EV in -6 which sucks.

All weve done is decided we are probably losing, decided we have good pot odds, and then decided to make our pot odds worse for some reason.

I completely missed that villain was 200BB deep. For the record, i think we probably don't have 25% equity here anyways and would prefer a fold, so my faulty logic wouldn't have cost me here anyways.

If villain were 100BB deep(what my numbers for shoving were based on), my logic wouldn't be far off - even if my numbers actually were. We would need something like 33% equity or better to make shoving +EV

You are still missing the point. If we have 25% equity then it means we expect to lose. Why would we put more money in than we have to when we expect to lose [IF HES NEVER FOLDING].

The only reason we are calling in the first place is to protect our percentage equity of the dead money of the pot. If we think we are losing we would much prefer to check it down.

river decision.

step 1.

put opponent on a (weighted) range.

step 2.

Figure out equity against said range. If we have 25%+ equity, the decision is between calling and raising. If we have 25% or less equity, the decision is between folding and raising. For all intents and purposes, let's just say raising = shoving. Let's also ignore metagame and variance considerations.

In any case, figure out the EV of a shove. Quick, possibly flawed maths:

hero has 144 of 726 eff stack in pre-river. so once villain bets, we're looking at a 436 pot with 582 behind. if we shove and villain folds, we win 436. If we shove and get called by better, we lose 582. If we shove and get called by worse, we win 874 (current pot + rest of opponent's stack). So do your best to figure out the %'s of each based off what you perceive his weighted range to be, and voila! we have the EV of a shove. it might look something like .5(436) + .45(-582) + .05(874), which just so happens to be approximately 0. Whatever this number is, compare it to the EV of folding (0), and calling ((equity*580)-144). Pick the best option. If options run very close together, the general hierarchy is raising > calling > folding, for metagame purposes.

The alternative is to base your play on other people's one-liners which are based on what their pre-conceived notions of what's standard are in particular spots.

raise the flop not the river

Originally Posted by Lukie

river decision.

step 1.

put opponent on a (weighted) range.

step 2.

Figure out equity against said range. If we have 25%+ equity, the decision is between calling and raising. If we have 25% or less equity, the decision is between folding and raising. For all intents and purposes, let's just say raising = shoving. Let's also ignore metagame and variance considerations.

In any case, figure out the EV of a shove. Quick, possibly flawed maths:

hero has 144 of 726 eff stack in pre-river. so once villain bets, we're looking at a 436 pot with 582 behind. if we shove and villain folds, we win 436. If we shove and get called by better, we lose 582. If we shove and get called by worse, we win 874 (current pot + rest of opponent's stack). So do your best to figure out the %'s of each based off what you perceive his weighted range to be, and voila! we have the EV of a shove. it might look something like .5(436) + .45(-582) + .05(874), which just so happens to be approximately 0. Whatever this number is, compare it to the EV of folding (0), and calling ((equity*580)-144). Pick the best option. If options run very close together, the general hierarchy is raising > calling > folding, for metagame purposes.

The alternative is to base your play on other people's one-liners which are based on what their pre-conceived notions of what's standard are in particular spots.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=ieXETZVLJ...elated&search=

Originally Posted by gabe

raise the flop not the river

my normal line, however a 30/9 leading into me for a pot sized bet was unusual to say the least and had my spidey sense tingling.

Why would you not raise the flop? Yeah as u said 30/9 leading into you but your not going to find a fold anywhere so might as well get good value.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Why would you not raise the flop? Yeah as u said 30/9 leading into you but your not going to find a fold anywhere so might as well get good value.

he over pots the flop, so i thought a flop raise would make my hand too obvious.
Also, if i raise his turn bet i think id have committed him to taking a look at the river at least, which is why when i call the first two streets i thought of raising a total blank river, or shoving but that suggests strength rather than a bluff (might be a sickish bluff however if i have AK)
If we tip this round and im in the sb and i raise all in on river how would we play it?