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KK - fd on monotone flop
Can't find a FTP converter that works for this forum and don't wanna kill all of your eyes so I'll type this up. Villain is a TAG regular, he's 16/14 from what I have on him (600 hands). Most of those hands have been datamined, but I have stacked him once before with a set vs an overpair, no other big pots so far.
Effective stacks $22
I'm UTG+1 with K K and raise to $1. Folds to villain in BB who flat calls.
Flop 8 5 J
Villain checks, I check behind
Mixing up my play, I'm probably not getting much from this villain unless he has the A , otherwise I'm probably behind.
Turn 8 5 J [ 3 ]
Villain bets out $1.50 into the $2.25 pot, I flat call.
River 8 5 J 3 [ A ]
Villain bets $3.75 into ~$5.25, I flat call.
Any reason to raise this turn? River I'm looking to get to showdown cheap, even though it was the worst card in the deck.
I think folding this river seems optimal because villain can logically put us on the A (if he doesn't have it himself), so if I hit my ace on the river, I'm gonna call, there's no point in betting a worse hand right? I think river is spew, but could be shown otherwise.
Also, if we're raising turn, how much are we raising to? $6 sounds about right IMO.
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