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 Originally Posted by nutsinho
why do you all think that getting it in for 130bb vs an 18/13 on this flop is a good play
I agree so much that there's way more into this hand than the comments show.
What if villain was 13/10, or 25/20?
What if the board was;
5 6 3 ?
5 6 2 ?
5 6 T ?
5 6 4 ?
5 6 4 ?
Some thoughts I have:
1. We can't fold flop to the raise.
2. If we 3bet we almost always get it in on the flop.
3. If we call we are looking to get away sometimes (depending on cards and actions)
I did some pokerstove against the following ranges, to give an indication what really matters.
Without 33 and overpairs:
-77-44,87s,76s: 32%
-77-44,AdQd,AdJd,AdTd,Ad5d,9d8d,87s,75s: 36%
-77-44,AdQd,AdJd,AdTd,Ad9d,Ad8d,Ad7d,Ad5d,Ad3d,Ad2d,Kd Qd,KdJd,KdTd,QdJd,JdTd,Td9d,9d8d,87s,75s: 40%
With 33, without JJ/TT:
- 77-33,87s,76s: 39%
- 77-33,AdQd,AdJd,AdTd,Ad5d,9d8d,87s,75s: 41%
- 77-44,AdQd,AdJd,AdTd,Ad9d,Ad8d,Ad7d,Ad5d,Ad3d,Ad2d,Kd Qd,KdJd,KdTd,QdJd,JdTd,Td9d,9d8d,87s,75s: 43,5%
Without 33, with JJ/TT:
- JJ-TT,77-44,87s,76s: 52%
- JJ-TT,77-44,AdQd,AdJd,AdTd,Ad5d,9d8d,87s,75s: 52,5%
- JJ-TT,77-44,AdQd,AdJd,AdTd,Ad9d,Ad8d,Ad7d,Ad5d,Ad3d,Ad2d,Kd Qd,KdJd,KdTd,QdJd,JdTd,Td9d,9d8d,87s,75s: 53%
With 33 and JJ/TT:
- JJ-TT,77-33,87s,76s: 54%
- JJ-TT,77-33,AdQd,AdJd,AdTd,Ad5d,9d8d,87s,75s: 52%
- JJ-TT,77-33,AdQd,AdJd,AdTd,Ad9d,Ad8d,Ad7d,Ad5d,Ad3d,Ad2d,Kd Qd,KdJd,KdTd,QdJd,JdTd,Td9d,9d8d,87s,75s: 54%
First conflusion; this isn't an auto stack off against every villain; overpairs <KK getting it in matters A LOT (then we should always 3bet flop). 33 has influence as well as number of bare FD's.
Assuming we call the flop raise, what are bad turn cards for us?
I have pokerstoved the above mentioned groups without JJ/TT (both with and without 33).
Bad turn cards are:
- any 3, 7 or 8 against all ranges. (we c/f)
- a blank diamond only against the widest range, the one with all the FD's in it (we c/f and c/c depending on range and betsizing)
- any Ace, against most mentioned ranges (we c/f)
I have no advice on wether to c/c, c/r, b/f or b/c blank turns (like 6s in this hand), because I just don't know for sure what's best. Better players should comment on it.
I also didn't touch the subject of adjustments to hero's play if villain continues to show strength on blank turns and/or rivers, because it's highly player dependant and we haven't got any info here. (and I'm not 100% positive what to do myself)
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