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Let's fold an overpair.
Villain is 13/5, with a 2.2% 3bet over a decent enough sample size. His stack size may lead us to believe that he isn't very good, although he does multi table. Seems kinda timid. 63% fold to cbet.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
saw flop
BB ($183.75)
UTG ($205.39)
MP ($199.80)
CO ($119.75)
Hero (Button) ($356.33)
SB ($221.15)
Preflop: Hero is Button with K , K
2 folds, CO calls $2, Hero bets $9, 1 fold, BB calls $7, CO calls $7
Flop: ($28) J , 8 , Q (3 players)
BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets $22, BB raises to $66, 1 fold, Hero folds
Total pot: $72 | Rake: $3
This might be overly nitty, but the way I saw it is usually when you miss those kind of flops you'll check behind cos they hit cold callers' ranges often and pretty hard. So for me to bet out there it shows that I probably like my hand.
A part of his range is obviously big draws, but I tend to feel that maybe with a big draw he'd want to try to keep the other guy in too and elect to just call.
Given his low 3b %, I think it's conceivable that he could have any set on the flop, although I'd put more weight on JJ and 88, assuming he'd 3bet QQ sometimes.
Anyway, thoughts? Plus if we're not folding do we prefer calling or jamming?
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