Lets give the table rock lots ot action on a bad turn card!

Opponent is 14/7 over 80 hands. Has yet to 3bet or really show much of any life. He got his stack going set over set for 150bb (he raised the flop there.)

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($207.50)
UTG+1 ($72.00)
Hero ($304.00)
BTN ($569.00)
SB ($118.00)
BB ($450.75)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is CO
2 folds, Hero raises to $6, BTN calls $6, 1 fold, BB calls $4

Flop: ($19, 3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $14, BTN calls $14, BB folds

Turn: ($47, 2 players)
Hero bets $30, BTN raises to $70, Hero calls $40

Ok, so no replies so far. I guess I should post more routine hands.

My thoughts: No flop raise on a board like this makes me kinda discount a set. I have the :Kd: in hand and the :Ad: is on the flop. That eliminates a lot of flush hands he could have. AT? JTd? Bluff? kinda small raise size for a bruff. How often is a king an out here? How often does he check the river behind with a worse hand?

I think this is a fairly trivial turn fold. He rarely raises worse and you won't get paid off on the river 7 outer

I dunno, his raise is so small you arent that far off the price you need to chase your FD w/o any implied odds. The implied odds on catching your K, from AK & AQ should be > then the times you get owned by AA. If he is ever bluffing, has worse or has QdQx or something(and he'll check behind OR jam when we do hit) then it seems like its a close spot.

I like the turn bet, and implied odds are good enough to call his minraise, if you hit then even if he doesn't hand u his chips he'll still be emotionally affected by it

I'd put him on a flush btw so I woudl'nt say a K is an out, he almost never has AA, and and AK/AT is a good possibility

Almost min-raising with anything other than a made flush would be really bad here. Board seems way to wet to take chances. I call though, fair odds and he could be bluffing a scare card. For instance if I had JQ I might well pretend I was chasing the FD instead of the SD.

I'm going to agree with deanglow here.

i wud so say your crushed on turn, a 14/7 has next to no imagination for poker lines. he thinks he has you and now he raised. id say he will bet rivers alot

Why bet the turn to begin with?

if hes dumb enough to make this tiny raise on the turn so deep, im calling without a doubt.

argument is that hes dumb enough to pay u off when u hit,and hes also dumb enough to raise here w/ a worse hand that just plain doesnt make any sense.

Originally Posted by dsaxton

Why bet the turn to begin with?

How many flush draws are in his range?

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by dsaxton

Why bet the turn to begin with?

How many flush draws are in his range?

if you think there are few flush draws in his range then this implies he would rarely have a straight draw which your turn bet seems to want to charge. he also probably won't call with a worse made hand if he is so nitty. why did you bet 30? If I bet this turn I would definitely gaybet it for like 16$ (1/3 pot), since I don't think this dude's gonna make a creative play on me. He is able to call this bet with worse made hands. He also might do something dumb like minraise this bet if he has the goods which gives u much better odds to see the river than when he raises your 30$ bet.

Even if flush draws constitute a small part of his range on the flop, the idea is that betting the turn is a huge mistake against his flushes but only marginally correct against the rest of his range, so don't bet, at least not $30.

Think about it, if he has a hand like Q-J, you're just inducing a fold when he's completely smoked anyways, so you gain next to nothing. Betting with K-K without the K of diamonds might actually be more correct than betting with Kd-Kx.