Lots of History with Weak Overpair

History :

Villain is 24/18 tagg. C-bets every flop HU from what I’ve seen.

I had called in position 3 times preflop.

1st time I folded to his c-bet.

2nd time I bluff-raised his c-bet on an an A high board and he folded.

3rd time i called w 5d8d and flopped bottom 2 on 5c8cQs board. I raised again and he shoved 110bb's with KQo (I boated up on turn, gg...)

My flop raise here was entirely for value since i think small PPs and draws... even overs might call.

If this is close, where do you lean and why?

$200 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Monday, May 28, 04:13:06 ET 2007
Table Table 125552 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: longlong5201 ( $192.35 USD )
Seat 2: HERO ( $693.45 USD )
Seat 3: Pavel55 ( $630.47 USD )
Seat 5: HotKazanGuy ( $255.70 USD )
Seat 6: PropositionMike ( $236.80 USD )
Seat 4: fhqwhgadss ( $200 USD )
Pavel55 posts small blind [$1 USD].
fhqwhgadss posts big blind [$2 USD].

** Dealing down cards **

Dealt to HERO
PropositionMike raises [$8 USD]
longlong5201 folds.
HERO calls [$8 USD]
Pavel55 did not respond in time
Pavel55 folds.
fhqwhgadss folds.

** Dealing Flop **

PropositionMike bets [$14 USD]
HERO raises [$41 USD]
PropositionMike is all-In.
HERO… (187$ to call)

i don't like it.

yeti theorem ftw?

I fold but im weirded out by it. I just assume opp is shoving AA/KK/A6/44 instead of playing it slow like everyone else.

I fold, he knows you're capable of calling with crap preflop and he has no reason to think you're bluffing him with your history.

Yeti theorem doesn't really work if there's a FD.

that being said, this is close. this guy may push 77-99, maybe even 55. We also know that he's pushing JJ-AA. He definitely could have overcards and a FD. It's possible that he's bluffing with overs, 67 is slightly possible, and I doubt he has 44.

I'm not sure i understand why you think overs are going to call your raise. Nothing in your history tells me that. I think in this spot, since i don't know if my opponent is willing to bluff here very much, i'm going to fold but i agree that it's close.

Originally Posted by Massimo

Yeti theorem doesn't really work if there's a FD.

that being said, this is close. this guy may push 77-99, maybe even 55. We also know that he's pushing JJ-AA. He definitely could have overcards and a FD. It's possible that he's bluffing with overs, 67 is slightly possible, and I doubt he has 44.

I'm not sure i understand why you think overs are going to call your raise. Nothing in your history tells me that. I think in this spot, since i don't know if my opponent is willing to bluff here very much, i'm going to fold but i agree that it's close.

i should have written that I thought he'd "raise" (about smaller PP's, overs etc...)

I wouldn't raise the flop to fold to a shove, so I'd call now, but I'd likely just call the flop. Raising is ok though, but it does get you into shitty spots like this one.

muck em say unnnhhh

i dont like ur flop raise here cause this guy is playing sub-optimally against you cause he doesnt understand that lags dont just indiscriminately shove chips in the middle.

i play this very passively with ur image... as in call, call, call/fold/vbet depending