Massimo tells me he'd kill me if I fold this...

200 Hands this guy is 18/9/4.33.

PokerStars Game #7975590376: Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/01/16 - 20:41:33 (ET)
Table 'Phoinix III' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: RiKDaYToN ($108.75 in chips)
Seat 2: redgrape ($145.85 in chips)
Seat 3: csage ($284.30 in chips)
Seat 4: OM MARS ($92 in chips)
Seat 5: deboneman ($222.30 in chips)
Seat 6: mambreno ($115.15 in chips)
OM MARS: posts small blind $0.50
deboneman: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to redgrape [Kh Ks]
mambreno: folds
RiKDaYToN: folds
redgrape: raises $3 to $4
csage: raises $10 to $14
OM MARS: folds
deboneman: folds
redgrape: raises $26 to $40
csage: raises $244.30 to $284.30 and is all-in INSTANTLY
redgrape: Wants to fold but fri

have you ever got in any preflop battles with him before

I had, unfortunately I had a lot of post flop notes on him and the one that i had preflop i didn't see until after the hand was over. So im not giving you the read.

This session i haven't got out of line and haven't got into any preflop battles

If neither of you has gotten out of line & no read & deep stack, I am thinking fold

If you don't want to get it all in Pre-flop, why not just call the 3 bet and play post flop?

Originally Posted by Silly String

If you don't want to get it all in Pre-flop, why not just call the 3 bet and play post flop?

Because I'm OOP.

easy call, hello AK

Originally Posted by Renton

easy call, hello AK

With no preflop history and facing a 5-bet with fairly big stacks? Good-bye stack.

I call the 3-bet. But like I've stated before, I'm a nit with KK unless I have reason to believe otherwise.

I stand by my statement.

Originally Posted by Galapogos

I'm a nit with KK unless I have reason to believe otherwise.

This sounds like a leak.

Its like saying "If i flop a K high flush, and bet the flop, and an unknown raises me, and I threebet, and he shoves, my default play would be to be nitty and fold to his obvious A high flush."

Todays games are a lot more aggressive, so much so that without really deep stacks (this isn't deep, its 145bb whoopteedoo) you can pretty much never lay down KK in a shorthanded game.

It wouldn't make sense for him to push AA here. He has position and he's up against a player who's fourbetting a semi-wide range (AK, QQ, JJ, KK, AA, most of which fold to a push with these stacks). The obvious play is to call redgrapes 4bet and get all in on any flop.

Im not saying he cant have AA, sure he can. But the overwhelming hand we see here is AK, maybe even KK or QQ.

Originally Posted by Renton

Originally Posted by Galapogos

I'm a nit with KK unless I have reason to believe otherwise.

This sounds like a leak.

Its like saying "If i flop a K high flush, and bet the flop, and an unknown raises me, and I threebet, and he shoves, my default play would be to be nitty and fold to his obvious A high flush."

No it's not, there's so many more flush hands people will play aggressively with, plus sets and A high draws could play for stacks on the flop. Preflop where I play there's only two hands people play like this with.

Originally Posted by Renton

Todays games are a lot more aggressive, so much so that without really deep stacks (this isn't deep, its 145bb whoopteedoo) you can pretty much never lay down KK in a shorthanded game.

It wouldn't make sense for him to push AA here. He has position and he's up against a player who's fourbetting a semi-wide range (AK, QQ, JJ, KK, AA, most of which fold to a push with these stacks). The obvious play is to call redgrapes 4bet and get all in on any flop.

Im not saying he cant have AA, sure he can. But the overwhelming hand we see here is AK, maybe even KK or QQ.

The difference is probably the games we play in. Where I play at 100NL people are still only reraising AA-KK preflop. I have notes on only two guys that will reraise with more than AA-KK preflop. And still at 200NL there's not a lot more that reraise with more preflop, just a few regulars.

So with more sites I guess it's more aggressive, but I couldn't see someone risking ~150bbs preflop with AK after all this preflop aggression which we haven't encountered yet. But like I said, my point of view is probably tainted because I have yet to play in a game this aggressive.

I'm willing to gamble here. I think he has other than AA at least enough to cover the times he has AA.
I am trying to do the math, but I can't figure it out. Can somebody help with the EV calculations and how often %-wise he has to hold AA for our call to be break-even.
I am coming up with only about 1/6th of the time, but intuition tells me that can't be right. That would mean he has to hold AA over 5/6ths or 83% of the time for us to fold? Is that right?
If he has AA here is our EV I think:
20% of the time we suck out for $290: EV = $58
80% of the time his AA holds for -$105: EV = -$84
Net EV = -$26

If he holds AK, JJ-QQ our equity is approx. ~70% so:
70% KK holds up for $290: EV= $203
30% villain sux out for -$110: EV = -$33
Net EV = $170

$170/$26 ~ 6.5

I am sure I'm off on my calculations. Maybe I should get pokerstove and figure equity for JJ+ & AK and go from there, yes?
Whatever, now I'm really confused.

EDIT: I think I realized my error. We don't win $290, we only win about $290-$110 or $180. Right? Mathwiz, anyone, help?

In my experience AI preflop at $100NL or below from a full stack+ is AA or KK. If it's a shorty it could be anything, but I'd say 90%+ it's AA and I'm looking at a 2 outer. Still, I haven't been able to force myself to fold yet.

I'm playing for 1,5 stacks here.

Originally Posted by Renton

It wouldn't make sense for him to push AA here. He has position and he's up against a player who's fourbetting a semi-wide range (AK, QQ, JJ, KK, AA, most of which fold to a push with these stacks).

that was also my point. I mean, obviously this could be AA... it happened to be AA. However, he is in position and semi deepstacked... why isn't he just calling and getting it in on the flop? It's something to take into consideration.

I've never layed down KK preflop in my life, is that a leak?

Originally Posted by Silly String

EDIT: I think I realized my error. We don't win $290, we only win about $290-$110 or $180. Right? Mathwiz, anyone, help?

I think that's right, so I make it
NetAAEV = -48
NetOtherEV = +93

So, actually he has to have AA > 33% of the time to make it a bad call. Since you hold 2 Ks AK/KK is pretty uncommon. It comes down to QQ... If he shoves QQ ~100% of the time, it's a good call. If he shoves JJ+QQ 50% of the time, it's a good call.

I think that if it was a 3-bet a/i you could call safely, but not a 5-bet. 5 bet seems to be only AK/KK/AA unless you have evidence, and that's like a 60% chance of AA, which is CLEARLY a fold.

Originally Posted by zenbitz

I think that if it was a 3-bet a/i you could call safely, but not a 5-bet. 5 bet seems to be only AK/KK/AA unless you have evidence, and that's like a 60% chance of AA, which is CLEARLY a fold.

This sums up my thinking.

[quote="zenbitz"]

Originally Posted by Silly String

5 bet seems to be only AK/KK/AA unless you have evidence, and that's like a 60% chance of AA, which is CLEARLY a fold.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

154,107,360 games 0.005 secs 30,821,472,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.293% 43.79% 03.51% 67479612 5402286.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 52.707% 49.20% 03.51% 75823176 5402286.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }





pot odds make an easy call

Renton, the probability of hands delt has little to do with his actual range since he might *sometimes* play AA or AK like this.

This one totally comes down to how the game and player is playing. The money is deep enough that I don't hate a fold.

fuzzy math tells me that we have to have about 30% equity to call here, so put him on a weighted range and go with it. Obviously it has to be AA a large majority of the time for this to be a fold.

FWIW, I'd 5-bet shove AK at least some of the time in villain's spot.

Also, I don't like 4-betting and folding to a push here. Nobody just calls a 4-bet anyway, so why not do it with KJo instead?

Either calling the 3-bet and playing poker or 4-betting and calling a shove has to be better, I think. I could probably be convinced otherwise.

BTW, I'd insta-call here but that is in the context of my own game and the game I play in, both of which are probably (definitely) much more aggressive preflop then your typical .5/1 game, for better or for worse.

Also, one more thing that I felt went without saying was this is a CO/BN war which sometimes play out looser then other positions (as it should).

He instantly pushed. Like literally you'd think a bot did it. He didn't even think about it. You really think and 18/9 semi nit isn't even thinking of not pushing with AK/QQ?

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

He instantly pushed. Like literally you'd think a bot did it. He didn't even think about it. You really think and 18/9 semi nit isn't even thinking of not pushing with AK/QQ?

fuzzy math tells me that we have to have about 30% equity to call here, so put him on a weighted range and go with it.

^^ by far the best answer... I'm not folding this but I also 4-bet other hands then KK/AA and most people that I play with are capable of shoving more then AA here. If you think this guy has AA 90% of the time here or something, then fold. I'm still not crazy on 4-betting and then folding to a push, unless you think that in light of new information (insta-shoving) that he's much more likely to have bullets then you would have thought his 5-bet shoving range was when you 4-bet to begin with. I hope that made sense.

Easy fold for me if I haven't been given a reason to think he might be doing something crazy.

Wow, my math sucks. Why is my answer so different that pokerstove?