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I'm willing to gamble here. I think he has other than AA at least enough to cover the times he has AA.
I am trying to do the math, but I can't figure it out. Can somebody help with the EV calculations and how often %-wise he has to hold AA for our call to be break-even.
I am coming up with only about 1/6th of the time, but intuition tells me that can't be right. That would mean he has to hold AA over 5/6ths or 83% of the time for us to fold? Is that right?
If he has AA here is our EV I think:
20% of the time we suck out for $290: EV = $58
80% of the time his AA holds for -$105: EV = -$84
Net EV = -$26
If he holds AK, JJ-QQ our equity is approx. ~70% so:
70% KK holds up for $290: EV= $203
30% villain sux out for -$110: EV = -$33
Net EV = $170
$170/$26 ~ 6.5
I am sure I'm off on my calculations. Maybe I should get pokerstove and figure equity for JJ+ & AK and go from there, yes?
Whatever, now I'm really confused.
EDIT: I think I realized my error. We don't win $290, we only win about $290-$110 or $180. Right? Mathwiz, anyone, help?
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