I understand variance in the short term- over 1k, 2k, 5k, 10k hands maybe. At the same time, how long is it possible (as in reasonable likely) to run significantly worse than normal. For example, over my poker career (which at the time was like 100k hands) I had a win sd % of about 51. For the last 45k hands (april) it has been 48%, and needless to say, my results have suffered. There have been no grand, sweeping changes in my game.

Essentially, one of the reasons we play a lot of hands is so we dont have losing months. The thing is, I feel like i am crushing the games I play in, but judging from winrate I feel like I should be making adjustments. Does anyone have a link to a thread, or can do math to give what maybe a std deviation in win SD % would be over 50k hands, 100k hands etc and how this correlates to winrate. ...?