Misplayed AKs, now what: nut flush facing river c/r on paired board?

[Robin]

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (4 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($199.25)
SB ($229.55)
Hero (BB) ($164.60)
UTG ($100)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, K
2 folds, SB bets $3, Hero calls $2

Flop: ($6) 4, 6, 10 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4, SB calls $4

Turn: ($14) 10 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $11, SB calls $11

River: ($36) Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $26, SB raises to $70, Hero ?

Villain is a reg running 25/21 over about 400 hands with 70% fold to 3-bet, opening 20% sb v bb, AF 3. Probably sees me as spewy.

Comments:

Don't like preflop. I was worried about being 4-bet (since I didn't want to stack off pre), but stacks are big enough to flat a 4-bet in position with a pretty wide range and I think that's what I should have done with this hand.

My river sizing is probably too big, because at the time I thought my range was more bluff-heavy and had less Tx and flush combos compared with what I think now.

His check raise reps 3 combos of QQ and pretty much nothing else for value. On the other hand, he doesn't rep hands with no pair either. He might c/c twice with 77, 88, 99 then turn them into a bluff, he certainly can't call with those hands on this river. If I fold everything but my 7 combos of 44, 66, TT then bluffing is an awesome play for him, so I feel like without a read on how he plays this spot I have to call at least some flushes?

[ilikeaces86]

Ya gotta call

[IowaSkinsFan]

I'm close to wanting to shove but I think call is better here.

[bikes]

Probably calling but ???? @ pre logic

[shakesss]

never folding and might consider shoving if the dynamics are right. His c/r % should give u a clue about whether he does this often enough for it to be a bluff. AF 3 ppl might not take check/call lines with flush draws on this board often enough for us to be dominating other flushes. He might take check/call lines with 10-9 sorta hands coz the boards pretty good for ur perceived range and he wouldnt wanna get raised oop deep with a weak one piar hand. If he thinks ur spewey then ur probably pretty polarized after betting the river and if he has a 10 he might just ship to look polarized as well and hope to get called by a really weak bluff catcher. I think he could do this for value with QT, 66 or 44.

[Lukie]

Probably calling but ???? @ pre logic

agreed

I'll add that if he 4-bets pre, it isn't a mandatory shove, calling is an option as well. Depending on sizing and perceived ranges I very well might shove, though.

Maybe think less in the terms of 'oh noez 165bb deep need kk/aa' and more in the terms of how often you could/should be 3-betting his opens bb/sb with those sizes and the situation becomes a lot clearer.

[Robin]

Thanks for the replies. Yeah, my thinking pre-flop was dumb as I already said. He showed up with QQ so std. cooler post I guess... I actually thought a bunch of people might say "lol, river c/r from a 100NL reg is always the nuts, fold ldo".

The interesting part of this thread is that I was putting him on a very narrow range for this and you guys are giving him a much wider range (adding hands I thought he would surely raise on the flop or the turn). Dammit handreading is really hard.

[Ravageur]

meh I don't think your narrow range is that far off. Lame to chime in now that we have results, but I'd definitely only be calling here (as others said) and I think shoving would be bad. The "raise pre, c/call c/call c/raise" is so silly that I'd guestimate his range being 44/66/tt/qq/kk/aa/and throw in one combo of Jxhh. Run that and it's pretty close and I think I was being generous.

[sauce123]

call, shove is too thin

[aka_red]

i can't imagine he ever shows up with AA/KK/JhXh. 77-99 is infinitely more likely.

[scott_owen]

i can't imagine he ever shows up with AA/KK/JhXh. 77-99 is infinitely more likely.

confirm my thinking here?

this is because AA/KK should always raise on either flop or turn..

Jx is a stupid hand to raise from the SB and then chase a flush with.

77-99 are all calling down because they have showdown value vs missed overs like AK and will also be able to bluff a lot of rivers here.

..because he's called on the flop and turn he thinks that we think he's drawing, and the flush has hit so he can bluff us of any hand that isnt a FH or nut flush.

finally, we can only call on river because J high flush isnt in his range, and therefore we are facing a range consisting of bluffs, FH maybe trips with 9T. we obviously beat bluffs and trips and they wont call a shove? so the only hand calling is a FH therefore there is little or no value in shoving this river, but decent equity vs a range that consists of several hands we do beat?

[aka_red]

i'm pretty tired. but that still sounds horribly off. except the last part.

[Renton]

Cbet percentage is quite relevant here. I think if he sees you as spewy that could be enough to make it a shove. You are significantly ahead of his value range imo. so its just a matter of does he c/r/f legit hands vs you. Vs most he probably would but if your image sucks this would be the type of spot to take advantage of that.

[bosco4621]

I'm guessing that a big raise on the river means that he hit his boat, but the fact that most decent villains bluff the river at 100NL enough to make the hero 4 bet shove a realistic option. Tough spot to be in, though. I dont think your bet sizing was terribly bad, however. You stayed just shy of the thirty percent rule, and a laydown here would not be a horrible play.

However, IMAO villain is only repping the quad tens or the full boat that came with the river Queen. He would have played a set of fours or sixes more aggressively. I think villain's HUD stats would tell you if he is a legitimate river blufffer.

[aka_red]

Cbet percentage is quite relevant here. I think if he sees you as spewy that could be enough to make it a shove. You are significantly ahead of his value range imo. so its just a matter of does he c/r/f legit hands vs you. Vs most he probably would but if your image sucks this would be the type of spot to take advantage of that.

He'd have to have a REALLY shitty image and be bluffing a ton in this spot to get value from like 45hh or Tx imo.

[Renton]

He'd have to have a REALLY shitty image and be bluffing a ton in this spot to get value from like 45hh or Tx imo.

He should widen his value range and bluff range when you are value betting as low as 6x/77.

[scott_owen]

most decent villains bluff the river at 100NL enough to make the hero 4 bet shove a realistic option.

if the villain is bluffing, and will therefore fold more or less his entire range to a shove, what value do you get from shoving..? your theory is way off... bluff or boat makes this a call surely.. unless you believe the villain will call to manipulate his image for later hands.

[Micro2Macro]

call, shove is too thin

i can't imagine he ever shows up with AA/KK/JhXh. 77-99 is infinitely more likely.

.