My most -EV bluff to date (low content)

Opponent seems loose and overly aggressive.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG ($199.85)
Hero ($180)
Button ($404.80)
SB ($201.30)
BB ($261.75)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 7, 9.
1 fold, Hero raises to $8, Button calls $8, 2 folds.

Flop: ($19) 5, 2, T (2 players)
Hero bets $12, Button raises to $30, Hero raises to $172

heh. repping Doyle?

I hope you at least bought some image with that bluff. Maybe the table will stay together for more than 15 minutes.

Yeah i don't get the three bet all in on the flop unless you have a read that he likes to raise flops with air.

I don't understand you dsaxton. Every time I see you give advice on the boards or IRC you give the nittiest advice ever, but I've played with you a decent amount and you're a pretty good player who isn't a nit at all.

Anyway, what's that theorem from 2+2 about how when a TAG 3-bets a dry flop it's always a bluff?

this flop isn't dry

The play would be fine with air since you would have outs if called (assuming he doesn't have a set) but this seems a bad spot to try this. Make it 95$ and c/f if you're called on the turn? Might accomplish same thing.
But yeah, bleh fold and do this with outs next time.

Originally Posted by mcatdog

Anyway, what's that theorem from 2+2 about how when a TAG 3-bets a dry flop it's always a bluff?

I think the theory was something like every time a TAG 3bets a flop with a pair they have nothing. I don't agree with this at all, but remember reading it.

no, the theory is if someone leads into the PFR then 3 bets without pushing on a dry paired board then they are bluffing