NFD +overs 210BBs, deep 3way

Both opps are regulars. MP is a lagtard and a big loser over a 30k hands sample, he runs 35/27 and does a lot of stupid stuff. I've seen him 5-bet 32o AI pre, I've stacked him for 200BBs with a flopped set vs KK, not many hands ago he got all in with AK high on the flop facing serious aggression, yesterday he called my 3bet with 86o and bet+instacalled my cr ai on a JT8 board, etc. On the flip side, yesterday he made a laydown on the river to my minraise AI after putting 80% of his stack in on all streets on a AAxxx board.

UTG runs 24/16 and seems pretty solid, here is some history: a while back I stacked his top two with a flopped straight after raising T8s UTG and playing the flop very fast. Yesterday he called my pfr with KQs 160BBs deep and planned a float on the flop, but picked up a flush draw and just called, and then called my A-high third barrel with the rivered top pair. He knows I'm capable of making big moves, but with the strength I'm shoving here he's gonna lay down a _lot_ of his raising range (even considering the fact that he knows that I know that MP is over-aggro).

Given reads, the 3bet shove is standard, right? How about the flop lead? In all honesty I didn't consider stack sizes when making it, I wanted to b/3b AI for 100BBs. What do we do when they are unknowns?

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $5/$10 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

Hero (SB): $2104
BB: $1112
UTG: $2369.25
MP: $2975
CO: $985
BTN: $985

Preflop: Hero is dealt T A (6 Players)
UTG raises to $33, MP calls $33, 2 folds, Hero calls $28, BB folds

Flop: ($109) 4 5 9 (3 Players)
Hero bets $85, UTG raises to $250, MP raises to $1111, Hero raises all-in to $2071

I think this is a fold dude. even with your reads.

Originally Posted by HalvSame

He knows I'm capable of making big moves, but with the strength I'm shoving here he's gonna lay down a _lot_ of his raising range (even considering the fact that he knows that I know that MP is over-aggro).

Given reads, the 3bet shove is standard, right?

The flop lead is ok (planning to 3-bet), but my standard play is to c/raise my big draws.

A fold would be standard.

You are giving MP 3.5 to 1 odds to call and I don't really see him passing on the bargain. He only needs to have a 22% chance to win for the call to be right. You don't really care if UTG calls here, in fact, if MP has two pair or a set, you desperately want UTG to call whatever he has.

Given that you are at best a 55% favorite against a committed aggro player, I think you have an easy fold. I'm not saying the shove is terrible, and it might give you the kind of image you like, but it's not standard and probably not even +EV.

Not that I know anything about play at this level but if hes so aggro isnt it better to wait until you hit an out and then let him play at you when hes drawing dead? (I mean before you bet out. Obviously this doesnt apply after its raised and reraised.)

Also a slight hijack. You say he lost 200BBs with a KK overpair. I assume you are implying that was a mistake but wouldnt it usually be a mistake to fold something so close to the top of his range when you play back at him, assuming he knows his own image?
I would have thought if hes getting it in with A high/bottom pair alot then he should pretty much never fold an overpair.

I sincerely doubt both your overs are good, even one of them for that matter.

i go allin alot

Originally Posted by gabe

i go allin alot

I may be wrong but you seem to get it all in with a FD no matter what.

Originally Posted by Pelion

Not that I know anything about play at this level but if hes so aggro isnt it better to wait until you hit an out and then let him play at you when hes drawing dead? (I mean before you bet out. Obviously this doesnt apply after its raised and reraised.)

The problem with this is that on the flop I have a huge equity versus his range given that I get to see both cards. Though I would probably get adequate odds for the flop call (alot of the time UTG will cbet and MP will just call), if I don't improve on the turn card I am in a pretty awkward spot having lost alot of my equity in the hand. Though he's aggro he's probably not going to put his whole stack in if the flush completes on either street, as there will just be too much money behind. It's just going to be really hard to get the full value of my hand especially since I'm out of position. And this is not to mention the times I don't improve and end up folding the best hand.

To clarify; my read on MP says that even with this huge raise I am ahead of his range. I probably have a tiny amount of FE against him as well. I gladely get this in on the flop HU against him for 200BBs. What makes this hand difficult is the presence of an UTG raiser. His raising range on the flop is probably something like QQ+, sets, combo draws, very occasionally air. I'm pretty sure that his calling range to this action is sets and OESFD only, and he might even find a fold with 44 once every blue moon.

The real question is wether or not he shows up with a set often enough that the dead money when he folds AA/KK plus my equity against MP isn't enough to offset it. Given the fact that there's an aggro player left to act, would UTG be more or less likely to flat call with a set here? I could see arguments for both sides, on the one hand a flat call seems more likely to induce a big move from MP, on the other hand it allows MP (and myself) to draw to a flush with correct odds.

Also a slight hijack. You say he lost 200BBs with a KK overpair. I assume you are implying that was a mistake but wouldnt it usually be a mistake to fold something so close to the top of his range when you play back at him, assuming he knows his own image? I would have thought if hes getting it in with A high/bottom pair alot then he should pretty much never fold an overpair.

This is probably true. I included this because in addition to the fact that he plays huge pots with one pair, he's seen me show up with a big hand in the only 400BBs pot we've played (I think).

Originally Posted by HalvSame

he's seen me show up with a big hand in the only 400BBs pot we've played (I think).

So you're suggesting he'll base his game on a sample size of 1 hand?

Originally Posted by biondino

Originally Posted by HalvSame

he's seen me show up with a big hand in the only 400BBs pot we've played (I think).

So you're suggesting he'll base his game on a sample size of 1 hand?

No. I'm suggesting it might be in there in the back of his head when he's making his decision. We have of course played alot more hands than this one, but it would be kinda hard to list them all .

Edit: I don't even know if he remembers the hand or not. He might have notes on me that include other hands that I have forgotten too. But you've really got to run with what you have, right?

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Originally Posted by gabe

i go allin alot

I may be wrong but you seem to get it all in with a FD no matter what.

*nut FD

but yea, might not be good for everyone though

At first I thought you were just trying to justify a spew, but actually I think you played it OK.
The reason (reads aside) is that you do have at least 25% equity in a 3 way pot assuming UTG calls. If UTG folds, then you are talking the worst of it unless ace-high is good against MP laggtard.

It's pretty thin though - you almost never have >33% equity vs. 2 villians or >50% vs. laggtard (although there is $285 more dead money than the first case)

Originally Posted by zenbitz

At first I thought you were just trying to justify a spew

Haha, of course I was. UTG instacalls with 9s9x top set, MP instacalls with 7s6s, I have 6 outs and spike one of them one the turn and my flush holds up.

I do really think it's a pretty close decision though.

Originally Posted by gabe

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Originally Posted by gabe

i go allin alot

I may be wrong but you seem to get it all in with a FD no matter what.

*nut FD

but yea, might not be good for everyone though

I think it's the only way to do it if you play a lot against thinking regs.

Originally Posted by HalvSame

Originally Posted by zenbitz

At first I thought you were just trying to justify a spew

Haha, of course I was. UTG instacalls with 9s9x top set, MP instacalls with 7s6s, I have 6 outs and spike one of them one the turn and my flush holds up.

Look again, you only had 3 outs.

Lol yeah, I forgot to count the two spades in MP's hand when I made the post.

Originally Posted by HalvSame

Lol yeah, I forgot to count the two spades in MP's hand when I made the post.

And the fact that the 8 and 3 would have been very bad for you.

Yeah, I focused so much on those while counting my outs that I forgot to count the spades he held. I was 12.6% to win the hand, so it was a pretty big suckout.

But let's not be results oriented. I wonder if it is close enough that the shove is okay, considering metagame issues as well as $EV.

Yeah I was commenting, there's no way you would consider that before the end of the hand. I just like to post in the High Stakes forum and feel cool.

Metagame is almost irrelvant here. DUCY?

(I say this because MP is never folding in this spot anyways, and you almost want UTG to call with overpairs since you are at least going to have to beat one anyways. Also, they may think you have a nut flush draw here sometimes anyways)

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Metagame is almost irrelvant here. DUCY?

I don't really CY, elaborate pls . Because similar situations will never come up?

I say this because MP is never folding in this spot anyways

I think he's capable of raising air here every now and then, and capable of folding some other hands as well.

and you almost want UTG to call with overpairs since you are at least going to have to beat one anyways.

I agree that if I get called by MP it's better to have UTG in there with an overpair, but I think that if UTG calls here I'm toast to a set almost every time.

Also, they may think you have a nut flush draw here sometimes anyways

which means that..

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Metagame is almost irrelvant here. DUCY?

wronngggggg

Originally Posted by gabe

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Metagame is almost irrelvant here. DUCY?

wronngggggg

Explain please. Because as far as my thinking goes, there is almost no metagame here.

villian's are going to still remember when you did this and probably think different of you

Originally Posted by gabe

villian's are going to still remember when you did this and probably think different of you

Is this really relelvant since anytime you ever show any draw you played fast opponents are automatically going to put them in your range? Or is this bad logic?

its alot simpler than you are making it i think. villian sees tihs and will think you are kinda crazier than he thought of you the before this. thats metagame.

I know this is late, But i think this is fine. You're right, UTG is folding a good amount ofd his raising range, he may even be nitty enough to fold 44 here! MP probably isn't raising this much with a set and the only two pair he could have is 45.

You just got unlucky that UTG had top set.