overpair against tight player

villain is 22/12 over 200 hands.

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $2/$4 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $113.50
BB: $418.30
UTG: $536.10
Hero (MP): $397.90
CO: $783.90
BTN: $67.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt 9 9 (6 Players)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $14.00, CO raises to $44.00, 3 folds, Hero calls $30.00

Flop: ($94) 8 3 7 (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: ($94) 8 (2 Players)
Hero bets $67.00, CO calls $67.00

River: ($228) 7 (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $100.00, Hero ?

i call pf to stack an overpair with a set or because he has AK type hand. i think it is unlikely that this player is 3bet bluffing but he might be.
he checks the flop. this makes me think he has 2 overcards.
turn is a fairly safe card, i bet as a sort of blocking bet and so that he has to pay to draw out on me.
river is also quite a safe card. i check thinking he will check overcards behind. it is unlikely that he bets with overcards in an attempt for me to fold an overpair.
the 1 hand i do beat on the river is a bluff. but right from the start of the hand i think it is unlikely that he is bluffing. the only bluffing type hands i think he could play like this that i beat on the river are busted draws.
his river bet could be a cheap attempt at a bluff or it could be a value bet by TT+. he might even be value betting a boat and was bluffing pf, but then made a nice hand.
TT+ usually bets the flop though, so no hand fits perfectly.
i'm also getting over 3 to 1 PO and have to be ahead less than 25% of the time to call.
is a $30 blocking river bet a good idea? i think it is unlikely that he bluff raises me even though it looks like an obvious blocking bet to other players.

i don't have to much experience using PT stats. i've based a lot of my thought process for this hand on the fact that his PFR is 12%. am i assuming to much?

should i call or fold the river?

what makes you think he doesn't think you have overcards?
i call.

I call, if he hes got a bigger overpair he played it funny

Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi

what makes you think he doesn't think you have overcards?
i call.

he might think that. but i think he checks if i have overcards. what does he gain from a bet?
if he wasn't bluffing pf then he's holding an ace and he gains nothing from betting if i have overcards. AK doesn't bet this river unless he thinks he can get overpairs to fold.

do his stats not show us that he is unlikely to 3bet bluff pf? and also, why doesn't he follow up with a cbet if he was bluffing?

i think i should have bet closer to pot on the turn so that i could narrow his range more. i think if i bet pot on the turn he folds everything i beat and so minimizes the chance that he will bluff me. if he then bets the river i can confidently fold.