Overpair in a weird spot

Both players involved in this hand were unpredictable. Button was semi-LAggy but hadn't done anything too donkish. SB was a very loose and erratic type who built up a lot of his stack on a previous hand against me where I had a set of eights against his jack-high straight in a pot where you'd never expect him to have J9 (there were two preflop raises and he'd been in early position). If it hadn't been for his weird, small reraise here I was 3betting preflop; instead this happened.

My question is really about two things: 1. flop bet (yes or no, and what size?) and 2. turn call (yes or no). I also suspect it might have been better to reraise pre and isolate the worse player of the two. I think the previous hand against him had me feeling a little gunshy.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($93.95)
MP ($50)
Button ($49.75)
SB ($140.70)
Hero ($50.75)

Preflop: Hero is BB with :Tc: :Ts:.
2 folds, Button raises to $1.75, SB raises to $4.00, Hero calls $3.50, Button calls $2.25.

Flop: ($12.25) , , (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6, Button calls $6, SB calls $6.

Turn: ($30.25) (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $19, Button raises to $39.75 (All-In), SB folds, Hero calls and...

(edit - had to correct the preflop reraise amount, hand converter messed that up)

I think this is a fold preflop, definately not a fourbet. I would check the flop, but since you bet I would bet $9 and c/f turn if BU calls. As played I would still c/f turn and try to get to showdown, I think you are beat a lot in this spot, i just don't see him doing this with lower overpairs than TT.

fold pf, you don't have set odds and thats all your TT is right now.

It depends on the read of the player. If he's "erratic" enough, I like a 4bet here. If button comes along we shut down. Some guys will felt AK unimproved. If you think SB will do something stupid like that, maybe go for it. Otherwise fold pre is probably right.

Originally Posted by thizzSantaCruz

fold pf, you don't have set odds and thats all your TT is right now.

I got the "fold preflop" response three times now which I don't get. It's 3.50 for me to call both raises and both villains have full stacks of 50 or more, which I also have - plus if the button ends up folding pre there's extra dead money in the pot - PLUS the SB in particular is an action player, and the button isn't far behind him - so how am I not getting set odds?

About the rest of it - I don't think I put this very well, so I'm going to explain in more detail. The table had gotten very aggressive as a whole over the previous orbit - there had been two people stacked (one of them was me), a lot of raises and a couple of 3-bets. The two other players in this hand were involved in all of that. The SB was very much a donk and I felt was capable of 3-betting from that spot with a pretty wide range. The button was not crazy but loose enough, and he was definitely calling the 3-bet preflop with most of his raising hands except maybe weak aces - probably he would call with any small or mid pairs, two overcards, or suited connectors. That was my read on the two of them.

The flop was a real problem. I thought there was a good chance I was leading the two of them. I figured the button was behind me for sure unless he happened to have like 56s or 22. The SB was kind of a mystery because I knew he wasn't 3-betting everything, but he could have a lot of big cards and medium pairs and even weird shit like QJ in his range. His check made me lean toward thinking he had missed big cards; then again I thought he was crazy enough to be capable of checking AA/KK/QQ in that spot and trying for a check-raise. (Believe me I've seen it, and believe me this guy was in the right demographic to do it.) So my intent there was twofold: 1. Maybe weed out some overcard type hands, or at least make them pay to play. 2. Same deal with flush draws, who would definitely call but hopefully not raise - I planned to bet bigger on the turn if it wasn't a spade and if I didn't get raised on the flop, which is how it went down. 3. Most importantly to gather information. I'm not an information bettor, but in this spot against these particular players, it seemed a lot more necessary than usual.

The flop call-call told me there was probably a couple draws (one flush and one overcards?) or a draw and a monster. On the turn I expected to bet-fold if the SB check-raised me; or just kinda wing it against the button. His push really bothered me but he gave sort of a timing tell (a delay of about 5 seconds before pushing) that I thought moved it more toward a call than a fold. And especially with the SB folding (missed his overs) I thought a call was the right decision.

the reason its a fold pre imo, is found exactly in this hand. you have an over pair, and a pretty decent one, and if you are forced to get it in, you are almost never ahead. the only way you are ahead is if you spike a set and as others said also you dont have set odds, which is pretty clear cut.

as played, if you are going to bet, make a real one to like 9-10. i just honestly dont know what the fuck is going on in this hand. definitely check turn. you got two calls in a 3 bet pot. you almost have to put the sb on overs, nothing else makes sense for him. why would JJ-AA not raise that. it bu's range seems to be very polarized.

Originally Posted by will641

the reason its a fold pre imo, is found exactly in this hand. you have an over pair, and a pretty decent one, and if you are forced to get it in, you are almost never ahead. the only way you are ahead is if you spike a set and as others said also you dont have set odds, which is pretty clear cut.

What do you guys consider to be "set odds"? It costs me 3.50 to call and effective stacks are 50.00. I hit my set on the flop 12% of the time, 8.5:1. The money behind plus the pot relative to what I have to call preflop is way, way higher than 8.5:1, and that's even if you count out one of the two players by assuming the button will fold pre-flop or on the flop. Frankly I think I am *clearly* getting set odds and it's not even close - I don't know how four people have concluded otherwise. Someone do the math for me.

By the way he reraised to 4.00, not 4.25 - hand converter screwed the pooch on that. I've corrected it. It was 4.00 and I was the big blind so it cost me 3.50 to call.

Originally Posted by will641

as played, if you are going to bet, make a real one to like 9-10. i just honestly dont know what the fuck is going on in this hand.

Ha - tell me about it...

Originally Posted by will641

definitely check turn. you got two calls in a 3 bet pot. you almost have to put the sb on overs, nothing else makes sense for him. why would JJ-AA not raise that. it bu's range seems to be very polarized.

I don't like checking that turn at all. I'm almost certainly ahead of SB at this point but if he's riding along with overs I cannot give him a free draw, and if either of them has a flush draw (and now straight draws are also in the mix potentially) checking is a horrific mistake, even though it's not completely obvious where I am.

Calling for set odds depends if you're a fan of the 10x rule, the 15x rule or the 20x rule, so assume that everyone who's saying it's a fold are in the latter camps. I'm with you actually, 'cause of reads plus it's 3-way and our hand has showdown value unimproved.

Yeah, my general rule is "at least 10x, more if I think the player is less likely to pay off." Certain people are of that exact type that they ONLY 3-bet with big pairs and NEVER fold big pairs after the flop; those people you really only need about 10x in my book. Same deal with any short stack because they are generally more pot-committed in their own minds. But those are rarer cases. Against normal players I aim for about 15x. Here I'm getting about 15x just from the guy who reraised (who I also have position on, glory hallelujah, and who I know will put a lot of money in when he probably shouldn't) and there's gravy in the form of another player as well. I think folding this preflop is way, way too nitty.

flop def sucks tho. plays way different if you don't bet like a girl.

call turn

i like the way you played it. preflop is cheap enough so i dont fold. the SB checks so i would think you were head, so i like betting. turn is close, i lean towards fold tho

Originally Posted by Warpe

flop def sucks tho. plays way different if you don't bet like a girl.

Oh yeah, well your MOM!

I'm still up in the air about that bet. With a reasonable fear of a check-raise from SB I don't want to go strong to the hole, but maybe 8 or 9 would be a better bet from the standpoint of both clarifying hand strengths and folding out certain draws (mainly the overcards). Then again, SB was donkish enough that he might have called any flop bet except a pot-sized or larger, and I really don't like to start out that strong in this spot. Button was probably calling most reasonable bets (not to give his hand away...).

If you're calling preflop for set odds then why are you getting it in?

Originally Posted by badgers

If you're calling preflop for set odds then why are you getting it in?

This is a strain of commentary that has really bugged me here lately. It goes like this: "If you are doing X with intent Y, then why change your mind and do Z?" The answer is, because that's how poker goes if you're playing it right. You learn as the hand goes along. Your opponents' hand ranges change. See also: "Got my flush but now I want to fold it." Sometimes "making your hand" doesn't mean you should still put all your chips in, and sometimes "missing your hand" doesn't mean you should auto-fold.

In this case, the direct answer to this question is:
1. Because I wasn't just calling for set odds. I did have set odds which helps, but I also felt like my tens had a moderate probability of being the best hand preflop, and therefore have showdown value. It wasn't exactly like I had 22.
2. Because even if I had been just calling for set odds, the SB's opening check (combined with the button's preflop flat call) changed my mind.

preflop is ok i think.

for turn its close but i think he has 88/99 hand a decent ammount here.

88 or 99 was my thought too - I would never play that hand that way (pushing the turn with it seems pretty terrible), but plenty of players do, even ones that haven't been especially bone-headed before. So it seemed like a reasonable guess. I also thought there was a chance he had a flush draw turned combo draw, maybe 89 or 68 of spades, or something along those lines. And I thought there was a reasonable chance he had 22 or 77, although he really doesn't need to push there if he has those hands - calling is almost certainly better with a loose player yet to act and a flush draw sitting out there.

Outcome for those who want to know:

Button had 6s 7s and my hand held up.

Preflop is fine, i don't get why people are getting so hung-up about it especially since you have position. I really like your flop bet size because it forces the SB to reveal his hand. At this point i can't see myself folding the turn but you're probably screwed, it's just really hard to fold when he's basically never beating you with an overpair higher.

calling $3.5 with an effective stack of $50 is great set odds imo. Especially the fact that it is a 3 bet and a lot of 50nl donks love to min 3 bet monsters pre. The problem is that after your flop lead you've committed 20% of your stack which is unprofitable if you're folding later in the hand. So like massimo said, you can't really get away from the hand on the turn. I prefer a check on the flop and try to get to a cheap showdown without a set.