Playing AA with a dirty flop out of position

This flop must of have hit him right in the face. How do you proceed with this?

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($193)
UTG ($115.35)
MP ($36)
CO ($125.40)
Button ($150.45)
SB ($100.60)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, A.
UTG raises to $3.5, 4 folds, Hero raises to $18, UTG calls $14.50.

Flop: ($36.50) J, K, T (2 players)
Hero...

Bet out and proceed with caution. Dont put too much more in if he sticks around.

check/fold

Originally Posted by Fnord

check/fold

what?!

Hmm Fnord I was saying you were right, but as AK (and QQ..and maybe even AQ) is in villains range, shouldn't we at least be trying to see a turn?
Or do we always have to fold to a flop raise, and AK and QQ will always raise this flop....as will anything that beats us.
(isn't AK, QQ, plus maybe AQ the biggest part of villains range?)

Maybe c/c flop, fold turn? Or block bet turn?

Originally Posted by minSim

Hmm Fnord I was saying you were right, but as AK (and QQ..and maybe even AQ) is in villains range, shouldn't we at least be trying to see a turn?
Or do we always have to fold to a flop raise, and AK and QQ will always raise this flop....as will anything that beats us.
(isn't AK, QQ, plus maybe AQ the biggest part of villains range?)

If he has AQ we're screwed too.

Im sure if we bet out say $20, he folds often enough for this to be goot.

Say he has:

Calls | Folds | Folds
TT/JJ/KK | QQ/AK | low PP/SCs 10%

Then he has a calling hand 12 times, and a folding hand 18 times (ignoring the junk) so Its worth betting.

If he never folds AK then its

Calls | Folds
TT/JJ/KK/AK | QQ / low PPs/SCs

Calls 18, Folds 12.

Calls 18/30 * 0.9 = 54%
Folds 12/30 *0.9 + 0.1(from the junk) = 46%

I think we get immediate value from making a cbet of $20 or so. (Using these percentages it comes out to be about +$9). Add to that the fact that if he just calls we still have a probably 2 outs to the full pot AND we disguise the times we flop the set/straight and I think a bet is pretty mandatory as long as we don't continue if called/raised.

Originally Posted by I Like Pie

Originally Posted by minSim

Hmm Fnord I was saying you were right, but as AK (and QQ..and maybe even AQ) is in villains range, shouldn't we at least be trying to see a turn?
Or do we always have to fold to a flop raise, and AK and QQ will always raise this flop....as will anything that beats us.
(isn't AK, QQ, plus maybe AQ the biggest part of villains range?)

If he has AQ we're screwed too.

Hehehe, I say C/F!!

I think we're making too many assumptions on utg's range, without knowing any reads/stats. You have any stats on villain?

I mean, I agree that hero re-raised it hard, so we have to narrow his range somewhat on the PF call. But I think there are a lot of ppl calling with low pairs here, thinking they have odds for a set etc.. that we shouldn't just be check/folding so easily?

I agree fold to resistance.. but certainly not give up right away!

I'm with pelion on this one.. bet out.

i just think C/F is giving up too easily. why are you not putting 22-99 in their range?

why not bet fold or is that to shitty?

Only "read" I had is from PAHud. His numbers were about 35/25/1.5 over 40 hands

Originally Posted by I Like Pie

35/25/1.5 over 40 hands

bet

Originally Posted by I Like Pie

Only "read" I had is from PAHud. His numbers were about 35/25/1.5 over 40 hands

35/25 is raising a wiiiiide range from UTG.. so for sure bet!

He is just as scared of this board as you are.

Either it hit him, or it didn't. Even if you think he has a wide range you should check, because he won't bluff on this board. You are ahead of exactly everything that folds, and behind almost everything that calls - the exception being exactly AK/KQ or club draw.

bet/fold or c/c
c/f turn either way tho unless hes crazy

Bet $20 and fold to a re-raise. There's a lot in his range that has us dead, but just as much that we're ahead. I think either he folds to your bet and or he calls/re-raises with us behind or close to it.

I think the worst thing to do is check/call as we have no clue where he is at.

Originally Posted by griffey24

Originally Posted by I Like Pie

Only "read" I had is from PAHud. His numbers were about 35/25/1.5 over 40 hands

35/25 is raising a wiiiiide range from UTG.. so for sure bet!

Im not sure. vp$ip is 35 and pfr is 25?
how can we tell he is raising with wide range from UTG?
vp$ip and pfr data is combination of voluntarily put $ into pot and pre-flop raise from all position.
villian could be vp$ip and pfr alot from other position and not UTG?

any advice. Thanks

Originally Posted by zenbitz

He is just as scared of this board as you are.

Either it hit him, or it didn't. Even if you think he has a wide range you should check, because he won't bluff on this board. You are ahead of exactly everything that folds, and behind almost everything that calls - the exception being exactly AK/KQ or club draw.

He seems pretty aggro. Dont you think we'll get bluffed off if we check/fold

Originally Posted by jtleon

Originally Posted by griffey24

Originally Posted by I Like Pie

Only "read" I had is from PAHud. His numbers were about 35/25/1.5 over 40 hands

35/25 is raising a wiiiiide range from UTG.. so for sure bet!

Im not sure. vp$ip is 35 and pfr is 25?
how can we tell he is raising with wide range from UTG?
vp$ip and pfr data is combination of voluntarily put $ into pot and pre-flop raise from all position.
villian could be vp$ip and pfr alot from other position and not UTG?

any advice. Thanks

I guess I'm just judging by my stats. But I run about 25/20, and I'm raising all pocket pairs UTG, and some suited connectors sometimes and even some weaker suited aces. His stats are looser than mine, so I'd imagine his range is larger than my UTG range.

Its possible that he's tighter than me UTG, but his range would be similar I'd think.

i would prob c/c the flop. not sure about the turn, but c/f might be best.

check/fold is dumb

how is that 3wpp? Do articles not count? Is "is" an article?

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

how is that 3wpp? Do articles not count? Is "is" an article?

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