This is probably horrible.

Villain is 18/16 over 50 hands. I don't know much about him at all. He has cold 4-bet once and it was a very reggy size so I assume he's possibly at least farmiliar with how to play like a reg at 200NL.

I could fold the turn here, but feel like he'll barrel it fairly wide if he raises this flop with air. It's a shitty fucking turn to call on when I think about it though since all his gutters either make pairs to slow them down or make the nuts. KQ also improves to the best hand. He bet the turn lol snap fast!

Think I prefer a turn fold. Most guys don't c/r board like this without a gutter etc and this turn card is just too shitty vs his likely range.

Anyways, on this river I assume he doesn't check a T here ever. He knows virtually nothing about me, assuming he's not too incompetent to hand read he can fold 2 pair and sets here right? This maybe be total FPS, but I feel like he just can't assume I can turn shit into bluffs here and like wtf can he beat. I should probably have investiagted whether he's a tard or not before I try this shit though.

Thoughts?

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Javifdez10 ($236)
UTG+1 th3xbo ($376.45)
CO megga19 ($200)
BTN Hero ($223.20)
SB nozaking ($296.10)
BB Rhaegar7 ($589)

Pre-Flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is BTN
3 folds, Hero raises to $5, nozaking calls $4, 1 fold

Flop: ($12, 2 players)
nozaking checks, Hero bets $8, nozaking raises to $27, Hero calls $19

Turn: ($66, 2 players)
nozaking bets $44, Hero calls $44

River: ($154, 2 players)
nozaking checks, Hero bets $147.20

It's just a question of how often it works to me. I think I get looked up by two pair or a set a lot here just because they checked for the exact reason of not value towning themself when you have the ten and folding everything else out. I don't think you should turn your hand into a bluff in this spot. I think it actually works more often when you are first to act.

I think your turn call is ok, he might view it as a good card to keep barreling air to get you to fold hands like JJ/TT, 9x that decided to call the flop and might fold the turn.

On the river I don't think he's checking a ten, why would he expect us to vb anything else that might hero call a bet anyway. Mostly I think he's check/deciding with a hand like KQ/QJ/99/22, even though can't have many Tx hands in our range (T9, KT, random floats) your bet size probably gets him to fold enough imo.

Regarding checking back we don't really have SDV since we lose to almost everything except complete air like 87, guess it depends on how often he c/r's flop with total air.

Very nice river play.

I know that if villain is playing well this is technically a very sound play. My worry is though that without info at 200NL there are still too many morons to expect this to work when they have 2 pair, sets etc. With info he's competent I'm snap doing this.

Thoughts on assuming this reg can fold based on info we got?

I'd fold turn, river seems alright

Meh, that flop raise size looks pretty serious. Btn vs SB makes me want to think he could be a little light, but I think I fold turn. From what you posted about villain I think they are more likely to be playing basic and face-up than anything else. How confident can we be villain ever raises a worse king here as opposed to c/c down cuz lolpotcontrol?

If you're flatting AK on the flop here are you also flatting AA to keep his range wide? What do you get to the river with and value ship that he should be scared of if he does have a set? Would you call flop with QQ? JJ? Do you ever get to the river with Tx apart from JTs with a backdoor FD? I guess you'd flat KK a bunch but flat 99 with a lesser frequency as villain will have Kx more often?

I think the river is the best part of the hand. In a weird way I think you might get lucky on the river if he isn't a competent hand reader, says "oh noes scary board" and nitfolds. It's also prettttttty sweet if he has AK too.

This is well above my stakes but I dunno, from what you posted it sounds like the kind of basic player you come across lower down, and is prone to give in to pressure without really asking themselves what you could have here. Flipside is the "has set can't fold" mentality you mentioned.

Cool hand.

Without some crazy image or dynamic for 3 betting flops this is a really standard call on the flop with my whole continuing range. That includes overpairs sets and weaker stuff.

KT QT JT T9 KK are all concievably in my range here on the river. Not like massively but at least enough of the time for me to have enough Tx combos to rep a better hand. The thing is if he can fold stuff here there really isn't any worse hand Icanhave unless I can turmn shit into a bluff and only a mad man assumes that in this spot at 200Nl vs a relative unknown.

Like you say dex, it's this shrug call shit Ihave to be careful of. It sickens and thrills me how terrible people are at poker, even those who grind millions of hands at 200NL.

The problem is if he thinks you would value shove two pairs here etc, in which case he'll probably call his sets some of the time. He reps pretty narrow for value, so I'm not convinced that our hand doesn't have enough value to check back here.

All that really matters is whether he folds hands that beat you >50% of the time, and that's so player dependent. against the generic mass of 18/16's though, I think that you probably are getting a fold >50% with hands that beat you.

I think this is all good but I suppose fold turn but its only because of lol nittyness from most people who fit his description.

I think if hes decently reggy then his raising range on the flop has a lot of gutshot type of hands in it and a decent amount of air because of the frequencey that you would be betting this flop with. I think he might take a check call line on the flop with a lot of his kings and so his range is probably either like QJ or random air. When you ship the river ur pretty polarized urself so its likely that he might look u up with 2 pairs of just insta pitch his air. His value range like sets and stuff might react the same way to ur river play. I would call flop and turn and check back river.

Yah I'm in the same camp as Shakesss. If he's reggy he's prob c/r the flop with some type of hand like AJ maybe, KQ, a gutter or set.

When he checks the river with his strong hands, a lot of these regs are thinking "crap I can't value shove anymore.. but now I can get him to bluff", and are likely checking sets/KQ etc here to c/c.

On the river I think he folds more than 50% of the time. But the majority of his folds I feel are hands that we beat anyhow, and he'll probably convince himself to call with better. Or maybe I'm the only one that stubborn c/c 999 here hah.

I mean, what do we rep? JT (discounted - calling flop & slowplaying turn), TT (very discounted - getting to river), KT (discounted pre)

Originally Posted by griffey24

KT (discounted pre)

Wot? I have never open folded KT suited or otherwise OTB in my life.

Your range isnt that wide you have a fair amount of tens in it and no air, I can't think of a better bluff spot.

Originally Posted by pocketfours

Wot? I have never open folded KT suited or otherwise OTB in my life.

Lol yeah KT is not discounted in the slightest.

The point is if he's decent he'll realise there's no air in my range at all! I can defo have some Tx combos and if I don't have anything that "needs" to bluff then wtf can he beat with KQ here? Decent regs at 200s I don't think generally make a habit of assuming their unknown villains are capable of bluff shoving the bluff catchers in my range here, especially since some of these are as strong as 2 pair, which btw I wouldn't ever expect him to think I would value bet here (and certainly not shove the river with to shove KJ here seems so absurdly terrible.)

I still think this is only bad if villain is a shitty hand reader, and its whether or not I can assume he's decent enough to read hands well enough to fold that is most relevant here.

Originally Posted by pocketfours

Wot? I have never open folded KT suited or otherwise OTB in my life.

sorry didn't notice it was BTN! Yah def not discounting KT suited or offsuit then, and prob a lot more combos of 9To and JTo then as well.

that adds a ton more combos of Tx to our range. Though I'm still not convinced that if villain takes this line with a huge hand that he's doing it to fold.

Originally Posted by Rondavu

It's just a question of how often it works to me. I think I get looked up by two pair or a set a lot here just because they checked for the exact reason of not value towning themself when you have the ten and folding everything else out. I don't think you should turn your hand into a bluff in this spot. I think it actually works more often when you are first to act.

Who's the new guy?

Why the small raise pre flop though, was there a reason for it?

Originally Posted by ggpokergg

Why the small raise pre flop though, was there a reason for it?

Yes, it's optimal with my whole range as a balacned strategy.

we're considering folding the turn with AK yet we also think we can have Tx in our river range often enough?

Originally Posted by gabe

we're considering folding the turn with AK yet we also think we can have Tx in our river range often enough?

I do think it's a fairly easy jam with any hand that beats 22. I'd also be more inclined to call the turn with KT than with AK.

Originally Posted by gabe

we're considering folding the turn with AK yet we also think we can have Tx in our river range often enough?

Yeah I get what you're saying but I'm betting most would give us credit for KT,QT, and JT despite the fact we're not calling the turn with the former two.