Pushing a draw

Villian in this hand was a solid player. He wasn't exactly LAG, but he did like to open it up in position. I have been reading a lot of high stakes NL on 2+2, and it seems like this is a standard line with a big draw. Good or no good? +/-EV?

Game # 232500765 - Texas Hold'em No Limit EUR 0,50/1,00 - Table "Montmell"
Game ended 2006-01-29 06:45:56 GMT+01:00

Players:
Bananskal (EUR 88,39 in seat 1)
lifeabeach (EUR 197,80 in seat 2)
bdawg56kg (EUR 100,20 in seat 3)
SilasA (EUR 82,25 in seat 4)
gudski (EUR 62,28 in seat 5)
ILL_INI (EUR 190,80 in seat 6)

Dealer: Bananskal
Small Blind: lifeabeach (0,50)
Big Blind: bdawg56kg (1,00)

bdawg56kg was dealt: 7s - 9s

SilasA Call (1,00)
gudski Fold
ILL_INI Fold
Bananskal Raise (4,00)
lifeabeach Fold
bdawg56kg Call (3,00)
SilasA Fold

Flop 3s - 6c - Ts

bdawg56kg Bet (6,00)
Bananskal Raise (16,00)
bdawg56kg All-In (90,20)
Bananskal Fold
bdawg56kg Payback (80,20)

bdawg56kg didn't show hand

bdawg56kg wins: EUR 39,45
Rake: EUR 2,05

If you think he'll fold, I like this.

If you think he won't, this is bad.

It's all about reads.

With 12 outs you are a around 46% favorite to make a straight or a flush by the river (note: opp might have a small redraw to a full house). With the dead money in the pot already and with some folding equity I like it. Its a very high variance play though if you only have little folding equity!

I like this against LAG's. If he is aggressive he will raise your lead with any decent holdings in which case you shove. 3-betting is better than CR'ing here because it wont be such an overbet.

Maybe it's better to play these kind of draws the same as top 2 and set.. Certain aware players might see this as an standard move from a big draw so you'll lose the fold equity.

There's always the ''remember it's a high variance move'' reply, but that shouldn't be an issue in a cash game. It's about maximizing EV; BR management deals with variance.

no empirical evidence to support this claim, but in my experience, i think lower limit players are more likely to call your massive overbet here than higher limits (i.e. you'll get more calls and showdowns @ $100NL than you would at $1000NL). i would be curious to hear from ping and spino and others who have escalated up to higher stakes about their perception of this claim. so you actually have to be really careful about the types of players you try this against at a level like 100 EUR. as ping suggests, i like this play against LAGs.

I fold this preflop, but other then that, I like it. I'm also capable of playing a set the exact same way.

There's always the ''remember it's a high variance move'' reply, but that shouldn't be an issue in a cash game. It's about maximizing EV; BR management deals with variance.

quoted for truth.

Thanks for the replies guys. What about these two hands? In both hands the villian was a solid player, so I decided to try to make a couple moves, hoping they would lay down their hands.

Game # 235623868 - Texas Hold'em No Limit EUR 0,50/1,00 - Table "Cartagena"
Game ended 2006-02-01 03:45:55 GMT+01:00

Players:
Negreanda (EUR 101,23 in seat 2)
MrOstkaka (EUR 114,95 in seat 3)
bdawg56kg (EUR 84,05 in seat 4)
Odman_SWE (EUR 221,10 in seat 6)

Dealer: Negreanda
Small Blind: MrOstkaka (0,50)
Big Blind: bdawg56kg (1,00)

bdawg56kg was dealt: 6s - 5s

Odman_SWE Fold
Negreanda Raise (3,25)
MrOstkaka Call (2,75)
bdawg56kg Call (2,25)

Flop 5h - 2s - 3s

MrOstkaka Check
bdawg56kg Bet (5,00)
Negreanda Raise (10,00)
MrOstkaka Fold
bdawg56kg Raise (40,00)
Negreanda All-In (87,98)
bdawg56kg All-In (35,80)
Negreanda Payback (17,18)

Turn 5h - 2s - 3s - 6h
River 5h - 2s - 3s - 6h - 8c

bdawg56kg shows: 6s - 5s (two pairs, sixes and fives)
Negreanda didn't show: Ac - As (a pair of aces)

bdawg56kg wins: EUR 169,35 (with two pairs, sixes and fives)



Game # 235626829 - Texas Hold'em No Limit EUR 0,50/1,00 - Table "Cartagena"
Game ended 2006-02-01 03:57:23 GMT+01:00

Players:
Oblivion (EUR 21,85 in seat 1)
Negreanda (EUR 99,60 in seat 2)
MrOstkaka (EUR 116,45 in seat 3)
bdawg56kg (EUR 180,35 in seat 4)

kpovlick (EUR 98,00 in seat 5)
Odman_SWE (EUR 224,70 in seat 6)

Dealer: Oblivion
Small Blind: Negreanda (0,50)
Big Blind: MrOstkaka (1,00)

bdawg56kg was dealt: Qc - Kc

bdawg56kg Raise (4,00)
kpovlick Fold
Odman_SWE Fold
Oblivion Fold
Negreanda Fold
MrOstkaka Call (3,00)

Flop 8h - 5c - Tc

MrOstkaka Check
bdawg56kg Bet (6,00)
MrOstkaka Raise (16,00)
bdawg56kg All-In (170,35)
MrOstkaka All-In (96,45)
bdawg56kg Payback (63,90)

Turn 8h - 5c - Tc - 4c
River 8h - 5c - Tc - 4c - As

MrOstkaka shows: Qd - Qh (a pair of queens)
bdawg56kg shows: Qc - Kc (a flush, king high)

bdawg56kg wins: EUR 230,40 (with a flush, king high)

Originally Posted by alias2211

no empirical evidence to support this claim, but in my experience, i think lower limit players are more likely to call your massive overbet here than higher limits (i.e. you'll get more calls and showdowns @ $100NL than you would at $1000NL). i would be curious to hear from ping and spino and others who have escalated up to higher stakes about their perception of this claim. so you actually have to be really careful about the types of players you try this against at a level like 100 EUR. as ping suggests, i like this play against LAGs.

I also suspect that this is probably true. However, I am really trying to open up my game and get away from just camping. I am way overbankrolled for 100NL, but I find this allows me to throw around my chips without being scared, and I really like the results so far. I don't do this kind of stuff against calling stations or total fish; I try to pick decent thinking players to try to make moves against. Now I just have to work on playing sets and monsters the same way.

getting all in on a gutshot/pair and flush draw.
every time