QJo in 3 bet pot, too thin?

Villain is a pretty basic, but solid, slightly on the nitty side type of guy. We've been playing for an hour or so. He goes through phases of 3 betting a good bit then not much and so on, it's usually pretty easy to tell when he's switching gears because his frequencies change dramatically and he neglects balance in the process.

Reads Relevant to this spot:

He once checked KQ on the turn 100 deep to me after 3 betting pre and c betting Kxx, not sure if his intentions were to c/c or c/r, but I'd assume c/r.

He will snap off bluffs often with A high etc in spots where it looks like my bluffing freq can be high

He's pretty straight forward so far post flop in that he hasn't taken any tricky lines.

So yeah I assume his range is mostly Qx hands and is somewhat capped. I think he can also have stuff like TT JJ etc and c/c turn, floating flops is something he defo sees me as capable of doing. Overall he views me as aggro.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (2 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($75.75)
Hero (SB) ($94.65)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J, Q
Hero bets $1.25, BB raises $5, Hero calls $4

Flop: ($11) 9, 6, Q (2 players)
BB bets $7, Hero calls $7

Turn: ($25) 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $16.50, BB calls $16.50

River: ($58) 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $65.65 (All-In)

So...what are you trying to accomplish by jamming river?

Value from Qx and worse pairs in a spot where I don't think he often has better.

what do you do with XsXs or JT or 87 on this flop

edit: OR a better question to be asking is probably. what do you think villain expects you to do with any 8+ out draw you flop here? i'm assuming if your image is aggro he would expect you to be raising flush draws and OESD's, floating some 9x, middle pairs, and ace highs, calling most Qx, and folding the rest. am i close?

I like this a lot if he had snapped you off on large multi-street bluffs before. There's a difference between snap-calling A-high for like $7 on the river on dry boards and calling a jam.

If not I don't think a nitty guy calls with JJ very often.

So I'm sort of torn between betting like $35 and doing this.

Originally Posted by baudib

So I'm sort of torn between betting like $35 and doing this.

they were my original thoughts exactly. at first i was leaning toward $35-$40 but i think this is a spot where we look more polarised than we actually are, plus we have an aggro image and know villain is perceptive of that (by his ace-high calls downs), and so i think i actually like it as played because villain can call us down with hands like JJ/TT/9x which he decided to turn into bluff-catchers when he checked the turn (which is what his line looks most like imo). also, his range is probably capped to some degree due to the frequency with which he check/shoves 99/AQ/KQ/Q9 on the turn

edit: although i'm not 100% his range would be capped here if he perceives you as both floaty and aggro. i personally would probably just C/jam anything top pair+ or anything with what is likely 9 or more clean outs on the turn against someone like carroters. but that doesn't mean that's a good play, or that it's what villain is likely to be doing.

Originally Posted by baudib

If not I don't think a nitty guy calls with JJ very often.

Note also though his 3 bet bluffing range which I perceive to be fairly wide at this point can contain plenty of Qx combos too, which are TOPEST PAIR!

Originally Posted by baudib

So I'm sort of torn between betting like $35 and doing this.

Note stack sizes here guys, he has like $47 left or something so I'm not overbet jamming as I think you are reading I am. We really only have one bet size option here. I mean we could bet like $30, but I doubt this widens our range, looks super weird for us to bluff 30 given our aggro image. I also think if his range is indeed capped here, shoving the rest in has to be best.

Originally Posted by rpm

i personally would probably just C/jam anything top pair+ or anything with what is likely 9 or more clean outs on the turn against someone like carroters. but that doesn't mean that's a good play, or that it's what villain is likely to be doing.

This is interesting and something I considered briefly in my 8 seconds or w/e I had to act. I defo think he's way more likely to c/jam on a board where flushdraws are prominent etc if he has a good made hand. C/C with the intention of calling bricks on the river just seemed too farfetched for this guy. I don't necessarily think his turn check caps his range but Ido feel his turn check/call does.

Originally Posted by rpm

what do you do with XsXs or JT or 87 on this flop

edit: OR a better question to be asking is probably. what do you think villain expects you to do with any 8+ out draw you flop here? i'm assuming if your image is aggro he would expect you to be raising flush draws and OESD's, floating some 9x, middle pairs, and ace highs, calling most Qx, and folding the rest. am i close?

Yeah think you're very close. I don't like raise/getting in a draw that's weak since I think a couple of things are the case.

1. He will consdier a flop raise by me to be very much draws and air and so can play his range pretty easily vs this, getting in anything that resembles top pair or slightly worse, bluff catching on blanks, and also jamming some draws that dominate us.

2. I think by calling the flop with a decent draw, we will have a profitable turn call and river spot too most of the time. reason for this is I think villain very rarely fires 3 with air and so we can call flops and turns to have FE on later streets, we also rep Qx and shit way better this way in his eyes as you mentioned.

Obv raise/getting in a draw like these on the flop isn't gonna be terrible. i might do it with AsXs since we dominate loads of his draws and have much better equity. Note there's a big difference between how we should play As4s here and 8x7x.

Originally Posted by Carroters

Note stack sizes here guys, he has like $47 left or something so I'm not overbet jamming as I think you are reading I am.

i did indeed misread that. jam seems absolutely fine then imo. i didn't even mind it when i thought it was slightly more than pot.

yeah so jamming is cool, still kinda weird for him to check Q7s on the turn though.

ninja edit to add: ZOMG TOPPEST OF PEARS!