QJo in squeezed pot vs unknown

What I know of villain from like 17 hands: He's not limped in 17 hands, has opened from late position twice in like 3 orbits and not from EP. He knows nothing of me, I've been fairly inactive since he's sat down.

BU 3-bets 8% and folds to 80% of 3 bets. He's just folding all day here preflop.

So I c bet this flop, making it fairly small and giving myself a good price to fold out AJ AQ KQ etc etc, got some equity if called, fairly standard I think.

So what's his range when he flats the flop. Maybe a few floats but going to discount these since we're unknown to each other etc, defo TT JJ show up here a ton and then sets and possibly some QQ KK AA too.

I feel like we get value from JJ TT by betting here, but also probably on the river. We also can't b'f here (unless we b/f lol small) which kind of sucks. I like my flop c-bet size never the less though since I planned to give up on a lot of turns expecting to fold out plenty overcards on the flop and there are only a few turns where the spr will be a problem for me.

So wtf now? One idea I had in my 12 seconds of time bank or w/e was to c/f the turn expecting him to rarely have air/floats, check back all TT JJ and bet mainly only better hands. I'd then bet for value on the river should he check back. Thoughts on this?

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($103)
UTG ($74.20)
MP ($112.50)
CO ($101)
Button ($117.40)
SB ($129.70)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J, Q
2 folds, CO bets $3, Button calls $3, 1 fold, Hero raises $12, CO calls $10, 1 fold

Flop: ($29.50) 9, 8, 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $15, CO calls $15

Turn: ($59.50) Q (2 players)
Hero? ($73)

in a 3bet pot with an SPR of 3:1 going to the flop, i usually set up my bets to get it in over two streets.

on turn as played i'd b/c $32 or something

Doesn't your range look a ton like {broadways, AA-JJ} on the flop? It would make sense that you check most of your air on the turn here...doesn't that make a c/f bad since he would actually bet his JJ-TT for protection?

Also, you say that b/f'ing would be bad unless we b/f a small amount. It seems we can get value from JJ-TT by betting a small amount since he probably doesn't shove these hands much (a shove is probably something more like {99, KK+} which we're pwnd by. I don't think a b/f is as bad as you make it seem.

What about a c/c turn, c/f river line (pending on bet-size)? Again, I believe he'd be protecting the turn here a lot and checking through the river with hands we're looking to get value from. He probably would see a lot of showdowns with these hands meaning he wouldn't bet them on the river much (if he bets river, we're probably beat).

If the turn checks through, betting the river a smallish amount ($25-$28?) would garner a lot of calls from JJ-TT.

You have to decide on the flop if you're going to go 3 streets, or two with this hand. You probably shouldn't size it to go in-between. You can't really go three streets with remaining stacks, so I'd just go 18-19 on flop, and jam turn.

I'm not ever jamming blank turns obv since he'll have TT+ and sets way more often than anything I can fold out. the problem is I feel his range is going to be really strong when he calls my c-bet on this board and so I don't wanna be jamming the turn very often. I was more picking an optimal size to get the most flop folds for the best price since there are easily enough unpaired combos I can fold out on the flop here.

I feel like his turn betting frequency is likely to be pretty low with TT JJ and protection not that much of a priority for many villains in this spot nor should it be. I hate c/c turn because I feel he has very little air and rarely TT JJ.

As played, I'm torn between b/f 1/2 pot (which prolly isnt bad upon reflection because he wont be shoving worse often at all) and c/f under the assumption TT JJ will frequently check and we can save ourselves money against the top of his range and still get value from TT JJ on the river if turn checks through. Needless to say I think b/c is pretty awful here for the same reason that b/f is okay.

I like betting like $18 on the flop and having a nicer spr on the turn to jam scare cards or cards that make our hand without overbetting. 18 may discourage any random floats which can't be a bad thing, although given this texture and lack of information, I don't think these are likely anyway on this flop.

don`t like pre, but as played i think he raises sets and KK/AA on the flop a lot of the time, so just betcall 2/3pot for value here

So we're mostly readless on villain. How are we assigning some ridiculously strong range here as TT+?

He could have some 67s,78s,8Ts,9Ts, QJ himself, JT sometimes (might raise flop sometimes).

Do you think TT/JJ will find an easy fold on the turn just because a Q peels? They don't think it necessarily hit you and now they have a gutter.

I think we can discount KK/AA quite a bit,given button isn't a fish.

If you don't want to get into these spots, don't 3bet QJo pre OOP. Gotta stack off now. If you lose this hand, I'm pretty certain it will be to a floated AQ. I don't think your flop cbet will fold AQ that often.

I don't expect JJ TT to fold the turn no, but if I can manipulate his turn betting range into being almost all better hands then surely c/f the turn can't be too bad since I can still value bet the river. I may not be able to be very sure of this vs an unknown though so point taken that he can have a wider range here. Saying that though, I would stilldiscount random floats somewhat since people don't generally get too out of hand readless vs unknowns in 3 bet pots. He does have a taggish appearance sofar, so I think we can say it's unlikely he's a total fish that can't fold to 3 bets.

You say we gotta stack off now. What line are you taking to do this, b/c? jam turn and expect to get called by TT JJ and discount AA KK enough for it to be good?

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.484% 45.74% 00.75% 644 10.50 { QcJs }
Hand 1: 53.516% 52.77% 00.75% 743 10.50 { AdAs, AhAs, KdKs, KhKs, QQ-88, AhQh, AsQs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s }

We're not doing super well vs a likely turn calling range here. If I give him T9s and 87s I also have to give him 98s and JTs which obv sucks for us. Note I've discounted KK AA and given him a couple of floats and some suited connectors. The latter tend to cancel each other out anyway since we lose to roughly as many combos as we beat.

I still don't think c/f can be bad here unless I give him more floats than this, just not sure how we can credit this guy with a wide continuing range either to my squeeze or on this flop. It does suck if he bets like TT JJ on the turn so maybe we shouldn't assume he checks these with the frequency I first thought.

Also if I think I have a +EV squeeze and no better option then ofc I'm going to do it. Preflop fold equity more than makes up for "ohh noes what if I get into a tough spot" and this isn't a reason to refuse +EV play imo.

I think I'd C/R the turn in general here. You're in a good squeeze spot so he probably expects a decent amount of junk to be in your range, and he didn't raise a half pot bet on that board, makes me discount a lot of nutted hands and JT etc. Regardless of whether they should or not, most people bet the turn here when checked too a very high % of the time. If he checks back, then he probably doesn't have much equity in the hand and protection isn't that big of an issue - and you would probably only get one more street out of him anyway, if that.

It also is good for when you have hands like AK/AJ or w/e here

I think Carroters is pretty right on. Griffey, while I have mad respect for you, I think you are thinking from the perspective of more aggro/looser mid stakes games, not nitty TAG-lite 100NL games. Villian is running 10-15% PFR at this point and people are usually much more aggro when they first sit down and others have no read, so I can see the tighter range being assigned to villain.
I b/f the turn for $30 and c/f most rivers for all the reasons stated above by Boog.
I also prefer a bigger cbet so we can shove A turns more credibly.
Sorry that this all has been said before, but I think this thread has a good number of well thought out responses and I wanted to concur.

I would rather bet the turn than check the turn and take a bet/check/bet line. I think a wider range of worse hands will call the turn than will check back the turn and call the river. B/C/B really doesn't look very bluffy on this board at all. Your value from pairs+gutters will more likely come on the turn than on the river.

Furthermore, villain probably doesn't expect you to check KQ+ here on the turn. So why shouldn't he be betting TT/JJ on the turn for value/protection if you check?

Silly - I'll agree that I don't know how nitty ppl are, and how tight their ranges are in this game. B/F turn may be the best, but either way I think betting turn is best and re-eval.

Maybe i'm overestimating how wide people's ranges are here due to playing in insanely aggro euro games where they have hands like K9 and J8 in their range, also maybe it's just the games that I play where villains will almost always bet here because they default put you on AK.

Griffey, you think that because it's more likely he will call the turn with, say 9 10, then he will call a blank river, that we should bet here? If this is true then i'd def agree with you if those sort of hands made up the vast majority of his range.

Also from a theory standpoint, when you says things like "B/C/B really doesn't look very bluffy on this board at all." it really is so player dependent, I mean, if you think that they think that then you should always take this line as a bluff of course, and never for value, but it really depends on what the opponent is thinking here. He might think that too, or he might think you might think that. You really only know by playing with him a lot and really analysing how he plays.

Yeah I like b/f the turn.

Originally Posted by Carroters

Yeah I like b/f the turn.

I'm not too sure about this, if you bet even half pot, and he shoves, how much equity do you need to call? without stoving it I'd imagine it's too much to fold. It's be pretty difficult to put him on a range where you don't have enough equity to call if you bet the turn considering he called preflop and called the flop.

If we bet 25 here we'll need 23.3% equity to call off the rest. It might not be horrible if we can assume he doesn't just mindlessly shove JJ TT etc very much. Even if I give him better hands and then like 1/4 of the combos of JJ and TT it looks like this.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 21.420% 20.45% 00.97% 180 8.50 { QcJs }
Hand 1: 78.580% 77.61% 00.97% 683 8.50 { AdAs, AhAs, KdKh, KhKs, QQ, JcJd, JcJh, 99-88, AQs, JTs, 98s }



Don't think b/f is gonna be too bad if we can assume he's jus calling the turn the vast majority of the time with sd value hands we beat, think that's a reasonable assumption.

Probably betting $20 on flop and shoving broadway turns.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.484% 45.74% 00.75% 644 10.50 { QcJs }
Hand 1: 53.516% 52.77% 00.75% 743 10.50 { AdAs, AhAs, KdKs, KhKs, QQ-88, AhQh, AsQs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s }

We're not doing super well vs a likely turn calling range here.

Qh is on the board.

Coinflipping vs his calling range (if assessed correctly) seems pretty good to me. The slight -EV on the bet we put in on the turn doesn't outweigh the cost of potential mistakes if we check. Letting him improve to a better hand or bluff us off the best hand is obv a big concern when there's basically a PSB left.

Edit: don't like the bet small/fold, wanna get value and he's not gonna fold much more of the calling range to a big bet than to a small bet. And after making a big bet then odds are to good to fold to a shove. Might also just jam to avoid awkward river spots, still think he's calling a ton. A lot of the time when people have a nut hand on the flop they will be more aware of bet sizes and set up shoves. Small flop bet + overbet jam on the turn can easily be interpreted as either the Q or a spontaneous bluff.

Either way, a bigger flop bet makes the turn so much easier to play on any card. Might also decreases his float % enough to make it >= smaller bet outright.

The only reason why I've been saying we can't not stack off here is because I don't think we can c/f.

Given we can't c/f, there is no size that we bet on this turn such that we would have to fold after. Either we bet big enough that we have the odds to call a turn shove, or we bet so small that we'd be inducing enough worse hands that we would need to call a shove.

I would c/f.

I would raise on the flop. As played I would shove it in the turn. I know it's a pretty aggressive move but that's just how I roll.