QQ vs. meganit

Lame, weak nit with stats like 15/6/2 makes a pot raise pre-flop from the CO. He doesn't steal blinds, ever. I have QQ on the button. What's my gameplan?

make it 3x+1bb

even though he is a nit, hes still raising 6% of his hands, and 6% is more than AA/KK, so im 3 betting. then im proceeding with caution, and if he raises at any point im probably going to fold.

Originally Posted by deanglow

make it 3x+1bb

I'd like more detail than that if you don't mind. Obviously my options are raise or call, so what's the case for them?

Also - let's say I reraise and he calls. Flop is Axx or Kxx and he checks. What am I doing from there?

Or let's say I flat call and the flop comes a bunch of rags, and he leads into me. What am I doing now?

idk i dont mind just flatting.

Originally Posted by will641

even though he is a nit, hes still raising 6% of his hands, and 6% is more than AA/KK, so im 3 betting.

Anybody know exactly what range that might be? I don't want to turn into a HUDbot, but it seems like if we have the information we should use it. I know that AA + KK + AK make up 2.1% of hands. If he's raising 6% and isn't a randomizer (raising weak and slowplaying strong), what's the other <4%? QQ, JJ, TT, AQ, AJ maybe? If so I am squarely in the middle of his range more or less. Tied with one hand, dominated by two, dominating two others, flipping against one, 70/30 vs. another two. My equity against that is really close to even money.

Call, see a frop.

I play it the same against guys who are like 20+/3/meow (live donks)

Why do you like the call, Fnord?

I apparently liked it myself because that's what I did. Frop was some vaguely coordinated garbage - I want to say 7 high with two spades. Also, some donk in the blinds tagged along. Donk checked, nit bet almost the pot, I called (showdown value moderate, fold equity very low - good thinking or bad?), donk folded.

p.s. I shoving relative unknowns into the four categories of bad players and then making assumptions about how they play based on those labels. Yum.

Originally Posted by dalecooper

Originally Posted by will641

even though he is a nit, hes still raising 6% of his hands, and 6% is more than AA/KK, so im 3 betting.

Anybody know exactly what range that might be? I don't want to turn into a HUDbot, but it seems like if we have the information we should use it. I know that AA + KK + AK make up 2.1% of hands. If he's raising 6% and isn't a randomizer (raising weak and slowplaying strong), what's the other <4%? QQ, JJ, TT, AQ, AJ maybe? If so I am squarely in the middle of his range more or less. Tied with one hand, dominated by two, dominating two others, flipping against one, 70/30 vs. another two. My equity against that is really close to even money.

its really hard to say actually, because ive seen these nits that raise almost never raise the most random shithole hands like 7Qo. i think they just decide that once every few orbits they should raise a random hand.

Originally Posted by dalecooper

Why do you like the call, Fnord?

We have position, probably a better hand but there is reasonable doubt. I want to see his reaction and give myself a chance to out-play him post-frop.

Originally Posted by dalecooper

I apparently liked it myself because that's what I did. Frop was some vaguely coordinated garbage - I want to say 7 high with two spades. Also, some donk in the blinds tagged along. Donk checked, nit bet almost the pot, I called (showdown value moderate, fold equity very low - good thinking or bad?), donk folded.

Call flop bet and re-evaluate if you can't rule out 2 big cards yet. If he is unlikely to bet AK into 2 other players (including a "donk"), then think about a tight laydown. I don't hate a min-raise either.

Originally Posted by dalecooper

p.s. I shoving relative unknowns into the four categories of bad players and then making assumptions about how they play based on those labels. Yum.

I've never done this. So many different varieties of fish in the sea.

Originally Posted by Fnord

I've never done this. So many different varieties of fish in the sea.

Yeah, I was more giving myself a hard time for calling them nits and donks. That kind of shorthand is fun but destructive sometimes, I think. Anyhow -

Originally Posted by Fnord

Call flop bet and re-evaluate. Can't rule out 2 big cards yet. I don't hate a min-raise either.

Oh, min-raise is saucy. That is almost out of my playbook now except for the occasional CiB, but in this situation it's interesting. Do you think it gives him a little too much info though? It also has the weird effect of repping a frush draw, which I don't know if that's good or bad - might compel him to start pumping in huge bets that I won't feel giddy about calling.

Anyway, I flatted it as mentioned. Turn was another little spade (did I mention I had the Qs?) and he fired a large cannonball across my port bow... er, bet $14 into the $18 pot. Now here's where the hand gets troubling to me. I know at that point he very, very likely had AA, KK, or JJ, and somewhat likely that one of his cards was a spade. What's the best play here? Call and hope for a cheap showdown (I'm getting the pot odds to just ride it out, unless he goes apeshit on the river) or rep the frush and try to make him fold his big pair that he really won't want to fold? I don't see any way he has two big cards now unless they are both spades. On the other hand, he could still have a big pair without a spade, and if so I have a flush draw. Decisions, decisions.

Originally Posted by dalecooper

That kind of shorthand is fun but destructive sometimes, I think.

Dead on the money.

Originally Posted by dalecooper

Oh, min-raise is saucy.

Min-raising pot sized bets into built pots is pretty standard in my book. Also, the sorts of hands you're repping with the raise doesn't really need protecting, it just wants a big pot.

As for the turn play, I probably just let it go right there. That said, online he's more likely to be super-TAgg and we're giving up too much. Got a post-flop read?

but 2.3:1 pot odds OMG

Do you think I'm right about his range? Also do you think I'm right about this guess - that unless he has a big spade and nails a fourth one on the river, he's probably check/calling there?

Originally Posted by dalecooper

but 2.3:1 pot odds OMG

Do you think I'm right about his range? Also do you think I'm right about this guess - that unless he has a big spade and nails a fourth one on the river, he's probably check/calling there?

Meh, yeah prob a call. How aggro is he post-flop?

Not very. I hadn't seen him bluff and he wasn't ever betting past the turn that I remembered. He never check-raised either.

Fold the flop!
If that's giving up too much, then the turn is a super-easy fold.