"hit sets, get paid"

Hey everyone,

It's 8:30am EST and I can't sleep, hence you are in for an in-depth poker strategy post from yours truly.

If this is the motto which you play poker by, and you are a short handed hold'em player, you are the new fish in increasingly difficult mid-stakes games. I want to thank you for your contribution and for being so EASY to play against.

Why defend your button by reraising when the player in the CO is consistently raising hands like K7o. You can wait for AA-- THAT'LL SHOW HIM!!!

Forget that many 'solid taggs' will consistently put 15-20bb in the pot (preflop raise + cbet) with virtually nothing, leaving them WIDE open for exploitation by a simple raise (or even float), yet you will happily sit there, not making a big move at the pot unless you can beat AA (if you can beat AA in a raised pot, you generally have the nuts).

And you wonder why people constantly bitch about 'running bad' and 'variance not going their way' as the games get tougher, pots become more fiercely contested, etc.

Anyway, I need to go lay down before I fall down. I'm so goddamn tired but I can't sleep. ****ing poker gets me all worked up and ****.

nice post

Almost every predictable strategy to NLHE is exploitable.

How many people on this forum can't think outside their fucking HuD.

Online LHE is dead long live Online NLHE.

ya good post. To be honest, I only recently (after >1 yr playing) started thinking more in-depth about how poker isn't as much about getting paid on hands as exploiting your opponents, and getting them to make mistakes.

Lukie, very nice post. Not too many people are commenting on it but there's some good stuff in there, I hope people "get it."

Originally Posted by Fnord

Almost every predictable strategy to NLHE is exploitable.

I like.

How many people on this forum can't think outside their fucking HuD.

I like even more.

Originally Posted by Lukie

If this is the motto which you play poker by, and you are a short handed hold'em player, you are the new fish in increasingly difficult mid-stakes games. I want to thank you for your contribution and for being so EASY to play against.

There will always be the occasional fish who sits down and throws a party with his money. I'd say that the strategy of raising in position, betting the flop, and shutting down if that doesn't win the pot is closer to the new "19 Hands" -- a predictable strategy that every decent player has seen. It will result in you being a breakeven to marginally losing player in all but the easiest games.

If you want to beat the games soundly, you simply will have to open up. Make some tough calls, start playing back at the TAGs, and sometimes you might even need to *gasp* put your whole stack in on a bluff.

My advice: if you want to learn how to play real poker, then sit down at a table full of nits and practice running them over. Try to get a sense of just how much you can get away with. You might drop a buy-in or three if you get a little bit too out of line, but the lessons you learn will be worth exponentially more to your ability to keep beating the games in the long run.

Originally Posted by mcatdog

Originally Posted by Lukie

If this is the motto which you play poker by, and you are a short handed hold'em player, you are the new fish in increasingly difficult mid-stakes games. I want to thank you for your contribution and for being so EASY to play against.

There will always be the occasional fish who sits down and throws a party with his money. I'd say that the strategy of raising in position, betting the flop, and shutting down if that doesn't win the pot is closer to the new "19 Hands" -- a predictable strategy that every decent player has seen. It will result in you being a breakeven to marginally losing player in all but the easiest games.

If you want to beat the games soundly, you simply will have to open up. Make some tough calls, start playing back at the TAGs, and sometimes you might even need to *gasp* put your whole stack in on a bluff.

My advice: if you want to learn how to play real poker, then sit down at a table full of nits and practice running them over. Try to get a sense of just how much you can get away with. You might drop a buy-in or three if you get a little bit too out of line, but the lessons you learn will be worth exponentially more to your ability to keep beating the games in the long run.

This is good advice. On full tilt I run 12/7 and I'm considered "loose" by most of the regulars standards, its pretty sick. I think learning how to crush nits is a critical step in becoming a successful NLHE player.

Originally Posted by Margin Of Error

I think learning how to crush nits is a critical step in becoming a successful NLHE player.

agreed. eventually you get to a level where the nits are bountiful, and one can't expect to beat the game by much playing nit vs. nits.

Originally Posted by Fnord

How many people on this forum can't think outside their fucking HuD.

preach it

Originally Posted by mcatdog

My advice: if you want to learn how to play real poker, then sit down at a table full of nits and practice running them over. Try to get a sense of just how much you can get away with. You might drop a buy-in or three if you get a little bit too out of line, but the lessons you learn will be worth exponentially more to your ability to keep beating the games in the long run.

I'll put my hand up and say 'guilty' in response to the OP. I win consistently at 25NL but it doesn't take much more than half a brain and half a game. When looking at my stats not long ago and reflecting on how I need to improve my game it 'clicked' that I need to open up, stop playing cards and start playing poker.

I dropped down a stake and did exactly what mcatdog suggested. The results were enlightening. Opening up my range, pushing people off good hands 3-betting with air/marginal hands and firing second barrels when sensing weakness yielded great results - things I just don't do without nuts or close to at my normal stakes. I ended up something ridiculous like 130bb for the session but the point of the exercise was to learn and learn I did.

Good post Lukie!