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 Originally Posted by Jack Sawyer
do you always push sets (for value) unimproved on turn with 3flush flops and blank turn?
"Always" is usually a bad way to go about most decisions, and the set on monotone flop/blank turn is probably one of the cases that I'm playing cautiously more often than not. I usually just get it in on the flop if I get the chance though.
In this particular situation I think it was reasonable to believe no-one had a made flush on the turn based on the action. I don't remember the absolute positions, just the relative ones, so I'll call them SB and BB. I'd expect the BB fish to raise made non-nut flushes on the flop alot. I'd also expect the SB to lead non-nut flushes on the turn when the BB came along, because the turn will check through so often, and there are a number of hand/action killing cards that can come on the river. When the BB leads the turn small I think there's a fair chance he did infact flop a flush, but that type of lead also means "I want to keep this street cheap" alot (ie two pair, pair+high club etc). Him being a fish makes weird hands at least as likely as made flushes imo, and I don't want to let either of them see a cheap river.
As it turned out my read on the SB was wrong and he did show up with a mid-flush, I do consider this a cooler and I would've most likely stacked off on the flop anyway. I think that he should have led the turn when he decided to slowplay the flop - chances are the SB fish isn't gonna fold, and the turn checking through is such an awful result for the SB. If he had led the turn I'm not sure if I should've shoved or just drawn to the boat, I'm probably just calling.
In percentages, how many times do you expect to get called by a nonmade nut-hand (K-high FD, A-high FD) in this spot?
Hard to put a number on it, the fact that the turn bettor was a fish (or at least had fishy stats) makes the percentage fairly substantial, and at this point the pot is so big that just protecting my hand becomes important as well.
Edit: I'm fairly confident with my play in that specific pot, but of course I welcome arguments to prove me wrong!
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