Rethinking what a push means

Villian is 68/32/5 / over 50 hands but 4/6 at showdown for a 67%


STAGE #677030934: HOLDEM NO LIMIT $1 - 2007-06-07 22:58:45 (ET)
Table: BRANDYWINE AVE (Real Money) Seat #6 is the dealer
Seat 6 - GOING100K ($203.05 in chips)
Seat 1 - DBLACK ($319.86 in chips)
Seat 3 - DTR49 ($283.70 in chips)
Seat 4 - KEVINMCPALE ($96.50 in chips)
Seat 5 - RISSARAT ($204.69 in chips)
DBLACK - Posts small blind $0.50
DTR49 - Posts big blind $1
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to GOING100K [6s 6d]
KEVINMCPALE - Folds
RISSARAT - Folds
GOING100K - Raises $4 to $4
DBLACK - Folds
DTR49 - Raises $7 to $8
GOING100K - Calls $4
*** FLOP *** [8c 5s 7d]
DTR49 - Checks
GOING100K - Bets $8 <-he minraises a lot so I underbet to save the pot from ballooning
DTR49 - Raises $16 to $16
GOING100K - Calls $8
*** TURN *** [8c 5s 7d] [4h]
DTR49 - Checks
GOING100K - Checks
*** RIVER *** [8c 5s 7d 4h] [3d]
DTR49 - All-In $259.70
GOING100K ???????????

yous seriously thought about folding this?

This is how bad players get value out of sets

insta-call.

only 1 hand beats you. and that hand is probably not 3betting preflop. do you know if he 3bets light?

please bet the turn

Um, you basically have the nuts here.

His push is a horrible extreme Value line for his probably top set. He thinks your stupid enough to call the huge overbet with your AA/KK or if he's fortunate enough lower set, not even considering you for a 6 at all.

Or just for shits, he might even have the other 2 6's, never know? But yeah this is an easy Happy Call for me!

Looking back at this thread Im pretty sure TJ isn't asking if he should call or not. He's calling and that's obvious. He's not a $10nl noob wondering if he is getting coolered. He wants us to think about what probable holdings players with these stats take this kind of line with.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

Looking back at this thread Im pretty sure TJ isn't asking if he should call or not. He's calling and that's obvious. He's not a $10nl noob wondering if he is getting coolered. He wants us to think about what probable holdings players with these stats take this kind of line with.

Originally Posted by Trainer_jyms

GOING100K ???????????

i'm not so sure...the ?????? kind of implies whether he can find a fold.

and just to add, while this is the dumbest possible way for a set to extract value (only beat when called, win no more when winning), it's also by far the best way to get money with 96.

at 25/50 NL its usually someone who is now scared of the board and doesn't know what to do, so they push. at least it was back in the good ol' days. not sure if that happens a lot at 100nl, but that is what it looks like.

Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

Looking back at this thread Im pretty sure TJ isn't asking if he should call or not. He's calling and that's obvious. He's not a $10nl noob wondering if he is getting coolered. He wants us to think about what probable holdings players with these stats take this kind of line with.

Originally Posted by Trainer_jyms

GOING100K ???????????

i'm not so sure...the ?????? kind of implies whether he can find a fold.

Let me rephrase. I've spoken to him about this hand and folding was never a thought. We generally put players on the nuts when they open shove rivers. However, this is why reads and HUDs are important. They make decisions like this much easier than in a vacuum.

We generally put players on the nuts when they open shove rivers

We do? Maybe this is where I've been going wrong

Originally Posted by biondino

We generally put players on the nuts when they open shove rivers

We do? Maybe this is where I've been going wrong

depends. against most donks, they don't have it. against good players, they will mix it up enough so that you have no idea whether it's a bluff or the nuts.

Originally Posted by biondino

We generally put players on the nuts when they open shove rivers

We do? Maybe this is where I've been going wrong

WHO or let me re-phrase that, What LAGtard min. 3bets 9,6 OOP?? That's just DONKtacular if villain reveals that in the end, cause as we all know Hero is never folding here, but for the sake let's say hero doens't have 66, just amusing to try and put villain on a hand here!?! As stated earlier, villain in no way thinks hero has a 6, so a set in villain's eyes is the nuts! that's the only hand that i can see open push river.

Anyways i think TJ is gonna post an answer that has us all flabbergasted as to the meaning of his thread title!

Originally Posted by biondino

We generally put players on the nuts when they open shove rivers

We do? Maybe this is where I've been going wrong

Really? The river shove at these levels always seems to me to be a nut hand that had not gained enough value throughout the rest of the hand.

This guys shove $180 (effective) into a $48 pot. What type of hands would you expect someone to do that with?

There are a number of other reasons mentioned why idiots shove rivers like this. The two that stand out the best are either set making bad value and some hand (like AA-KK) scared of the board, getting confused, and shoving.

I think another question is should we bet the flop or not given our reads.

villain has a set and possibly the nuts. but who 3bets 69pf?

i think he has a 6 and you should call. it will be a split pot.

worst part of this hand is the turn. ytf didn't bet the turn?

We have villain's showdown stats, but we don't have what percentage of hands he wins without showing.

I think he's simply trying to represent the 6, and buy the hand.

yea just check the flop, or min bet to induce a min c/r so u can lol.

seriously tho he could be buying it after u check the turn, and any 6 is possible.

I have the question in my head everytime I read, "he shoved because he doesn't want the call". It seems more and more now, that shoves are a value line. Does this shove want a call?? That's where I'm going with this. Is this a bluff, if so, why a fullstack? I'm calling if I have a 6 so is he repping a 6, trying to get value out of a set, or just a stupid idiot that shoves with AA,KK or QQ on this board, putting me on a weaker holding.

Is shoving a value bet, or a bluff in most cases is my problem I'm having and this hand was perfect for me to get discussion going.

DTR49 - All-In $259.70
GOING100K - All-In $179.05
DTR49 - returned ($80.65) : not called
*** SHOW DOWN ***
DTR49 - Shows [2d Ad] (Straight, ace to five)
GOING100K - Shows [6s 6d] (Straight, four to eight)
GOING100K Collects $403.60 from main pot

Well he was shoving for value not realizing with that bet size that he was turning his hand into a bluff on this board b/c he is only called by better hands.

In his donkey mind it was for value.

That is the problem that is running around at $50 and $100NL. Shoves for value, even on the flop, when hitting monsters or pseudo monsters, seems to be a line many are playing. Is it a question of just making notes. Saying that a bet of certain sizes is not just a "he wants/doesn't want a call" anymore will not suffice.

call

Originally Posted by Genitruc

call

nice timing are u creal?

lol sometimes posting b4 reading other replies makes me look particularly bright

I think flop bet is okay, but checking is fine too. Turn check is vvv bad. As played call b/c you have 2 of the sixes and his stats are insane.

I should explain some of these turn checks that I do, just in case I may have done it here. In fact I may be 85% sure I did. When I complete a draw like this, an obvious one against an aggro fish, I will click auto check and when they check(if they check) it checks so fast behind them that they think I had check/fold option checked. A lot of times I can get away with either them pushing, like this, or me looking like I bluff at the pot and they will come over me many times. It seems to work at this level, since there are so many non thinking aggros at the stake.

Originally Posted by Trainer_jyms

Saying that a bet of certain sizes is not just a "he wants/doesn't want a call" anymore will not suffice.

In addition to whether or not he wants a call, you have to figure out WHY he does(n't) and look at how your hand compares to the hands he would (not) want a call with. No good knowing that he's bluffing and (thinks he) wants you to fold if you can't beat any bluffs. At the other end of the spectrum, if we have the nuts we don't care what hand he's valuebetting.

In between these extremes we need to first determine wether or not he's betting for value, and what range he's doing it with if so. This obviously comes down to reads on villain and our own image at the table, and we put him on a range accordingly. Ie, if villain is a fish, he often thinks 2pair/set is a monster on this board, and we can call with a wider range (which means that sometimes I'm not folding top set on this boards), whereas a strong player might have nuts/air always, and another strong player might have both nuts, air and occasional medium strength holdings.

Hmm, I don't really know where I'm going with this. I might try to continue on this tomorrow, been up 30 hours now, lol.