River decision 200BB deep

Guy is very fishy, he takes a very wide range to the flop and has shown some pretty optimistic calls postflop. Few hands ago he flatted AA preflop in position and donk bet/shoved 100-odd BB on Kc9d3d. I was planning my bets so I can shove river easily, but now I wonder if shoving may be too thin and b/f 20ish > shove (> c/c > c/f)?

$0.25/$0.50 No Limit Holdem
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($129.05)
UTG+1 ($82.45)
CO ($56.25)
BTN ($102.35)
SB ($29.80)
Hero ($100.10)

Pre-Flop: ($0.75, 6 players) Hero is BB
UTG raises to $1, 4 folds, Hero raises to $5, UTG calls $4

Flop: ($10.25, 2 players)
Hero bets $8, UTG calls $8

Turn: ($26.25, 2 players)
Hero bets $22.50, UTG calls $22.50

River: ($71.25, 2 players)

If he's so terrible that he wont fold like 99 here I like a shove, but guess that's unlikely and still seems fairly thin vsa almost anyone.

If he's bluffy and spewy I like a c/c since there's a fuckload of missed draws and his made hand range is unlikely to call much of a bet anyway.

If he's not the bluffy type on the river, I like a small value bet because he'll talk himself into calling this with like A7, A5, 88 etc etc.

Its hard to put him on a hand here. I think he might have raised a set on the turn given that there are two flush draws. The history about him shoving AA on the flop would also suggest, maybe, that he plays over pairs very fast. His UTG min raise and call would mostly be pocket pairs under ten or suited connectors.

I would mix it up between check calling and bet/folding in this spot. sizing would be a bit tricky coz of your turn bet. If you do bet 20ish he might read it as weakness and jam missed draws. I dont think there is any real value in betting coz there are really no hands that can call you except jacks. If i were to bet i would make it like 28-32.

value shove imo

I'm not gonna check, but I assume you have less than a psb shove left as you planned? Good plan if so and definitely value shove now.

shove

you aren't bet/ folding and checking is meh

imo

b/f for 20 seems pretty bad because the bet looks pretty weak so some aggro idiot like myself might auto raise it and then you have sick pot odds... enough to call considering the chance of the weak bet auto raise... if you think he is kinda crazy sure bet 20 but then call, standard is a shove though, no?

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