river line with flush vs donkey.

this guy is a big donkey. i stacked him a few orbits ago, where he called down with mp in a 3 bet pot QJxQx board, he had AJ. he runs like 60/24/1.2 over smallish sample. is this an easy shove?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (4 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($206.35)
Hero ($395)
SB ($211.65)
BB ($376.85)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T, Q.
UTG raises to $6, Hero calls $6, 2 folds.

Flop: ($15) 2, 5, 7 (2 players)
UTG bets $8, Hero raises to $32, UTG calls $24.

Turn: ($79) 8 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: ($79) 5 (2 players)
UTG bets $42, Hero...

How small of a sample? Has he shown down many of his raised hands?

My first instinct is just to call since the board paired and your flush is only the 3rd best. But that might be giving him too much credit. It's weird trying to figure out what a player this bad might have that you beat, that he would have raised pre-flop with, and that he would call a shove with.

I think I'm indifferent between a call and a shove. Him being awful means you probably get some value from shoving, but it's thin because he probably still does fold occasionally, and he can also have a lot of hands here that beat you. But if he's bad enough to show up with (and call with) hands like A5, 44, 66, 99, TT, 56, A7, 78, or a lower flush (not many of those out there, however) then a shove might be good.

shovel

I would shove. He doesn't fold any straight or 2 pair here I don't think. You've shown a ton of weakness as well so I don't see a ton of strength in his bet.

150, 200 and shove are all pretty good lines.

Are we ever betting turn against an unknown (not this villain)?

If not, are we ever betting a non-heart turn?

I would generally just call the flop since I really want to play the river.

Originally Posted by Fnord

I would generally just call the flop since I really want to play the river.

To get value from your flush or to try to get villain of his hand?

I assume you raise this flop with 75 and sets, so by calling I don't think we can represent a really strong hand on next streets, other than the one we have.

Assuming villain doesn't b/3b flop light, isn't a flop raise +EV in a vacuum, let alone with all the equity we have?

Also, assuming he checks a decent amount of turns to us when we raise flop, the flop raise only costs a bit more than calling 2 streets.
Do you assume villain won't 2nd barrel much when you call flop, so you can take it down on the turn often?

Originally Posted by minSim

To get value from your flush or to try to get villain of his hand?

Draw heavy board and I want room to feel this one out before I commit.

Given that he stacks off light, I'm not happy to win this on the flop and don't want to deal with any bets that blow me off my hand.

Do you still prefer a call if villains flop bet is 12+?

Originally Posted by minSim

Do you still prefer a call if villains flop bet is 12+?

I think we have far greater mistake equity playing turns and rivers here with money behind.

Overall our plan of attack against this guy is to extract value, not blow him off of hands.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by minSim

Do you still prefer a call if villains flop bet is 12+?

I think we have far greater mistake equity playing turns and rivers here with money behind.

Overall our plan of attack against this guy is to extract value, not blow him off of hands.

I disagree and agree at the same time.....I don't know how to weigh the arguments.

I agree completely that relatively seeing, this opponent is the worse one to blow of hands and is the better one to get value from.

Somewhere in my mind is a blog strategy post from ISF about draws and made hands, where (imo) he states somewhere that because draws have pretty static equity against strong and weak hands on the same street, we should aim to get it in against the strong hands and profit from the FE against weak hands. With a second argument that the equity of draws changes a lot on following streets, imo meaning we should put money in on the street(s) when our equity is best.

Ofcourse that are general drawing hands characteristics that should always be put in the proper perspective. But I really like the general idea and even though it leaves out some of the arguments for being agressive with draws, keeping these in my mind has helped me a lot.

But as mentioned, I don't know how to way both sides to come to the right conclusion.


Two important question I have in trying to understand your preference for calling are:
1. if you are going to bet a blank turn that villain checks to you.
2. if you prefer calling to an unknown opponent as well, and if not if your argument to prefer raising is more FE on flop or less implied odds.


Here are some general thoughts that run through my head, which I have trouble with weighing.....would be great if you have some tips how to get some of these things straight:
- Villains range is wide, so there's flop FE (especially on this board)
- Villain isn't great so might continue light
- Villain isn't aggressive so isn't likely to b/3b light (gives us FE, but we're not happy with a flop stack off)
- Raising builds a pot
- Raising might buy us a free card
- Raising might hide our actual hand (although more overrepping than underreping, so I'm not that sure it helps us getting paid)
- Calling seems transparant, but at least leaves some weak hands in our range
- Weak players are generally afraid of 3 to a flush board
- Calling is cheap
- Calling gives villain a cheap turn card as well
- Villain dominates some of our outs
- We dominate some of villains outs
- Continuing on the turn might get expensive

If he had AT, is he folding the flop or would he need to see a big turn bet to fold?

Originally Posted by Fnord

If he had AT, is he folding the flop or would he need to see a big turn bet to fold?

Tbh I expect the first, you do not?

(it's not like we're minraising or something, if he's bad enough to call flop isn't he bad enough to think "that's a big raise, I have nothing, I fold?")

Might be different for AhT or A5 or A7.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Originally Posted by minSim

To get value from your flush or to try to get villain of his hand?

Draw heavy board and I want room to feel this one out before I commit.

Given that he stacks off light, I'm not happy to win this on the flop and don't want to deal with any bets that blow me off my hand.

so would you raise with the nut frush draw on the frop?

Originally Posted by minSim

Tbh I expect the first, you do not?

Lots of terrible players won't fold a street after putting in money unless you confront them with what they consider to be a lot of money or an all-in. Lots of others will donk, then fold to a raise to "see where they're at" or to test you. Figure out which breed you're dealing with.