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 Originally Posted by Fnord
Originally Posted by minSim
Do you still prefer a call if villains flop bet is 12+?
I think we have far greater mistake equity playing turns and rivers here with money behind.
Overall our plan of attack against this guy is to extract value, not blow him off of hands.
I disagree and agree at the same time.....I don't know how to weigh the arguments.
I agree completely that relatively seeing, this opponent is the worse one to blow of hands and is the better one to get value from.
Somewhere in my mind is a blog strategy post from ISF about draws and made hands, where (imo) he states somewhere that because draws have pretty static equity against strong and weak hands on the same street, we should aim to get it in against the strong hands and profit from the FE against weak hands. With a second argument that the equity of draws changes a lot on following streets, imo meaning we should put money in on the street(s) when our equity is best.
Ofcourse that are general drawing hands characteristics that should always be put in the proper perspective. But I really like the general idea and even though it leaves out some of the arguments for being agressive with draws, keeping these in my mind has helped me a lot.
But as mentioned, I don't know how to way both sides to come to the right conclusion.
Two important question I have in trying to understand your preference for calling are:
1. if you are going to bet a blank turn that villain checks to you.
2. if you prefer calling to an unknown opponent as well, and if not if your argument to prefer raising is more FE on flop or less implied odds.
Here are some general thoughts that run through my head, which I have trouble with weighing.....would be great if you have some tips how to get some of these things straight:
- Villains range is wide, so there's flop FE (especially on this board)
- Villain isn't great so might continue light
- Villain isn't aggressive so isn't likely to b/3b light (gives us FE, but we're not happy with a flop stack off)
- Raising builds a pot
- Raising might buy us a free card
- Raising might hide our actual hand (although more overrepping than underreping, so I'm not that sure it helps us getting paid)
- Calling seems transparant, but at least leaves some weak hands in our range
- Weak players are generally afraid of 3 to a flush board
- Calling is cheap
- Calling gives villain a cheap turn card as well
- Villain dominates some of our outs
- We dominate some of villains outs
- Continuing on the turn might get expensive
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