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 Originally Posted by Irisheyes
Check/fold flop because:
a) it is a low card flop which makes your opponents less likely to believe that you actually hit something.
b) There is a club draw he could chase.
c) His stats show that he is a loose player who is less likely to fold.
d) there are two opponents on the flop. This makes it more likely that someone either chaught something, or has a 66 type hand and will call your cbet.
Fold turn because you don't have odds..
Fold river because he just chaught 2 pair.
The flop I think is fine to cbet, even in a 3way pot, Im probably betting atleast 10 though. Paired boards are very unlikely to hit anybody, a thinking player will realize this and often float you, but a 70/3 is not a thinking player. Simply because somebody is loose preflop doesnt mean they call every cbet, Ive seen 80/20s, etc. who fold to 80%+ of cbets over a decent sample; however, that isnt always the case.
Id definitely take into consideration any reads or cbet stats when deciding whether or not to bet this flop though.
why are we calling this turn though, simply because it is a small bet?
This very easily could be a hand like AQ that picked up a pair on the turn and then two pair on the river, or even trips played very weirdly. I dont tink we are ahead enough to profitably call this river, I dont think we should have gotten that far though.
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