Roll a 3-sided die?

First hand i can remember in forever that literally had me completely - and i mean literally and utterly - scratching my head.

Flop and turn are pretty standard for me, villain is unknown, just showed up at the table.

what. the. fuck. river.

$100.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Thursday, December 02, 02:03:12 ET 2010
Table (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Seat 1: Loooooouis ( $98.00 USD )
Seat 2: Jughead5 ( $95.50 USD )
Seat 3: Genitruc ( $108.25 USD )
Seat 4: Pablo484 ( $61.50 USD )
Seat 5: timetopay ( $130.18 USD )
Seat 6: RASTAAAMAN ( $99.00 USD )
RASTAAAMAN posts small blind [$0.50 USD].
Loooooouis posts big blind [$1.00 USD].

Dealt to Genitruc

Jughead5 folds
Genitruc raises [$3.00 USD]
Pablo484 folds
timetopay calls [$3.00 USD]
RASTAAAMAN folds
Loooooouis calls [$2.00 USD]

** Dealing Flop **

Loooooouis checks
Genitruc bets [$6.00 USD]
timetopay folds
Loooooouis calls [$6.00 USD]

** Dealing Turn **

Loooooouis checks
Genitruc bets [$17.00 USD]
Loooooouis calls [$17.00 USD]

** Dealing River **

Loooooouis bets [$27.75 USD]
Genitruc

Why "roll a 3-sided die"? We're certainly never folding here.

Calling or raising are our only options here. My first thoughts are that this is an easy river shove....not sure what I am missing?

Originally Posted by JL

Why "roll a 3-sided die"? We're certainly never folding here.

Calling or raising are our only options here. My first thoughts are that this is an easy river shove....not sure what I am missing?

yeah i gotta say the same thing here

seriously wtf is he leading the river with? is there any reason for him to block AJ in this spot?

Looks like he's leading AT or something, who knows why. Trying to get you off a chop I'd imagine.

The fact that his most likely 8x hands are 78 and 98 also makes this an easier shove.

Originally Posted by griffey24

The fact that his most likely 8x hands are 78 and 98 also makes this an easier shove.

well that doesn't matter because we split the pot with every 8x that doesn't make a boat.

jam it in

yeah this is a 2-sided die.....jamming seems best, he can level himself thinking you're trying to get him off a split. If you noticed he's passive postflop though calling would be fine.

just wanna make sure no one ever even thinks of folding here, thx for replies so far

also i should probably mention, i just expected to see 2's full soooo fking often here... nothing else really convinces me, which is why my 3-sided die would include a "fold" side

super nitty obv

Ya easy jam; his range that beats you is so narrow and he can be block betting all of his Ax here. I don't think you're going to get him off 98/87 but if he's a postflop nit it could be likely...still we have that bit
Of FE vs his range we're chopping with ( but given this logic if he is that type of player we're never getting value from Ax but we obv dont know this readless).

I don't think you should jam here, it's pretty optimistic to try and justify a jam by saying he might play Ax this way, in the unlikely event he does, then it's debatable whether he puts any more money in if you raise.

I'm not sure I like a Jam either. I don't see what calls that we beat. This is almost always a block bet, and if he is just trying to get value from worse, then we risk so much more for nothing. I'd need to know he's a drooler that can call with TP here enough to even think about putting more in.

Originally Posted by Toadstool

I don't think you should jam here, it's pretty optimistic to try and justify a jam by saying he might play Ax this way, in the unlikely event he does, then it's debatable whether he puts any more money in if you raise.

this.

Originally Posted by Toadstool

I don't think you should jam here, it's pretty optimistic to try and justify a jam by saying he might play Ax this way, in the unlikely event he does, then it's debatable whether he puts any more money in if you raise.

I don't Think it's unlikely he plays Ax this way but thinking about it he may rarely call a jam with Ax. So I've changed my mind: kind of on the fence on jamming or calling. The great thing about calling is we gain a read and don't value own ourselves (which necessarily isn't a bad thing given that we'll be good some x% of time he does call).

Jam, if he's playing 22/A8s like this he's probably playing 98/87 like this and there's only 1 combo of A8s.

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

Jam, if he's playing 22/A8s like this he's probably playing 98/87 like this and there's only 1 combo of A8s.

But we don't beat any of those hands. What hands do we beat that he calls with when we put more money in the pot?

finally, some dissent!

Originally Posted by jyms

But we don't beat any of those hands. What hands do we beat that he calls with when we put more money in the pot?

Whoops I misread the board, yeah then I guess I agree with the previous posters ldo.

Well I guess most people said to jam when I actually read the first few posts, I don't understand why we'd do this unless we have seen him make some pretty silly leads/spewy calls in the past.

Maybe it's just me, but a half pot donk lead here seems a whole lot more like a blocking bet with Ax than with some hand I should be worried about?

I agree, but it could be that he want's you to exactly have an 8. I would have to be pretty confident he can call a shove with an A here to jam. He's either B/F'ing or B/Calling our jam, and I don't like our chances vs a B/Call, particularily if we have been aggressive at all at the table.

Read dependent. It depends on how he's played before.

nothing seems to make sense but call unless hes some uber retard

let's minraise to make him call his ace

Originally Posted by pantherhound

let's minraise to make him call his ace

I like this