set against a nit.. but he's raising!.. Deep

-Villain is a nit and runs about 12/9 and his AF is 1.65
-when he calls my flop raise, I'd imagine his range is JJ+, AK/AQs. I don't think JT is in his range
-I don't know if he'd raise a bare Q here, I've rarely seen him raise Post flop so I don't know his raising range at all. His turn AF is 0.86

Cryptologic
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $2/$5
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $527
UTG+1: $1157.05
CO: $839.55
Button: $528
SB: $87.65
Hero: $2126.75

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with
2 folds, CO raises to $20, 2 folds, Hero calls $15 (pot was $27).

Flop: ($42, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $30, Hero raises to $88, CO calls.

Turn: ($218, 2 players)
Hero bets $150, CO raises to $375, Hero ?? <-- #360ish behind if I just call

I don't see how we could fold as it would be hard to put a nit on 56s here. I get it all in on the turn, and hope for AQs although it looks like QQ might have just sucked out. If it's 99 then GG Mr. Nit.

i hate your flop raise size..

Originally Posted by gabe

i hate your flop raise size..

I'm assuming you mean, make it bigger...110ish?

surely your turn bet is to entice a raise so we can push right? and opp cant fold anything significant...

sux if he has QQ but that's all you're worried about.

This can be AA KK looking to get it in on non-spade turns

Very very very close imo. If I continue, I just get it in cuz there's a Q on board (and in his mind the Q is a blank for AA/KK)

JTs, 99 and 55 are all reaonable holdings.

Yeah I think a raise to 120$ on flops like these is better so you can do everything you can to get it in on the flop (Is he ever folding AA/KK no matter how much you raise the flop???). As played you just have to bet/call the turn. You're probably beat but you, sir, have a set.

Originally Posted by griffey24

Originally Posted by gabe

i hate your flop raise size..

I'm assuming you mean, make it bigger...110ish?

it gives away your hand...

ahahahahah didnt even notice that

Originally Posted by gabe

Originally Posted by griffey24

Originally Posted by gabe

i hate your flop raise size..

I'm assuming you mean, make it bigger...110ish?

it gives away your hand...

I would like to see a pot-sized rr on the flop (about $70 + the $30 he's got in already). Flush + inside str8 draw is about the best hand he can have. Any made hand is a dog (i just can't see T6 or 64). Pot raise does not give him odds for a call.

The way you played it, he missed his draw on the turn. He looks like a big pair to me. I'm tossing in a pot-sized raise. I pay off QQ. I'm pushing here, all-in rr against any action.

i think he would still raise AA KK and AsQs, which is still in his range.

120, 210, shove/callshove

why dont you think JT is in his range

and i was talking about raising to '88' on the flop

gabe you are too deep for us

lol at '88' bet. also, raise more to rep a draw, build pot, etc.
im also stacking off on the turn but not looking forward to showdown too much.

Originally Posted by gabe

why dont you think JT is in his range

and i was talking about raising to '88' on the flop

My understanding was that he's tight. Am I reading the "nit 12/9" wrong? I thought this was PokerTracker's VP$P / PreFlop Raise. If that's the case, he's only raising 9% of his hands, and that (for me) means no raises on JTs, even in the cutoff. Did I misunderstand the 12/9 stat?

The overall aggression factor of 1.5 is almost worrying, but I would think his chance of being in with a JT is less than 5%. If he has JT, I'm stacking off. If he has QQ, I'm stacking off. I think he has a flush draw, and I'm pushing to not give him odds to hit it. I think in 90% of his likely range, I'm either ahead or way ahead.

But maybe I'm missing something? I am a relatively new player, so I could certainly be wrong here.

yea his average pfr is 9%, but since its an average the CO and button positions are going to be higher than 9 because they are the best positions for raising

Upon further thinking, I agree that I should have also put JT in his range.

So given that, we're adding even more hands in his range that I'm behind, though I still agree with most of you that i'm pushing here. But im mostly pushing here cause "I have a set.. if you have me beat.. then cooler.. gg"... definitely no fist pumping going on as I pushed.

We're 170bb's deep here, how deep would people have to be to ACTUALLY consider folding on this turn?

this is enough bb's to fold it imo, but i would need to know more than his turn AF to fold..like he wouldn't semibluff there or over play AA/KK.