A set facing weird action and messed up SPR on turn

Last week Marshall took on minSim for posting the same hands over and over again and seemingly not learning much from the advice he got. I dont know about minSim, but what Marshall said could have been addressed at me as well and I realized how I must get serious with studying and analysing again. I can´t beat the games anymore by just grinding out 25k hands a month and hope not to run too bad.

So here I am, trying to wrap my head around new concepts and not just posting cooler.


CO seems kinda nitty over the past ten orbits his numbers read 18/11, he hasn´t done anything noteworthy or shown down much.
BTN is a loose and aggressive halfstacker, he 50BBs four tables and bets a lot as PFR
BB is a poor player who sat down with like 40BB or so and has been limping and calling a bunch. He hasn´t shown a lot of aggression preflop.

Preflop: CO opens moderately tight, since he refused to 4bet Id guess {JdJh,JdJs,JhJs,TT-22,AQs-A9s,KJs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,AQo+,KQo,JTo} including half the JJ combos is what he flats. I suspect the BB being very strong, given that he didn’t open much preflop at all until now, also I dont want to put much emphasize on his sizing as he prob doesn’t know any better.

Flop: Id lead out here some time, but Im fairly confident BB being so strong that he´s cbetting frequently, if not CO will surely bet almost anything we could get value from himself. Im not sure about what he´s raising here, as the 50 hands sample is pretty much useless. 77, 99, TT, 98, 87, JT for value, I dont know how often I can expect him to be (semi)bluffing AT or JJ. His call should narrow his range to {JcJd,JdJh,JdJs,JhJs,TT,ATs,JTs,T9s,JTo}

Turn: Sucky SPR, I have 23% vs the range I estimated before.
I think 3bet sizing on flop is as interesting as whether to shove or c/f turn.


No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) ($73.55)
BB ($15.50)
UTG ($50)
MP ($19.50)
CO ($50)
Button ($47.30)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8, 8
2 folds, CO bets $1.50, Button calls $1.50, Hero calls $1.25, BB raises $2, CO calls $1, Button calls $1, Hero calls $1

Flop: ($10) 7, 8, 9 (4 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $4.50, CO raises $10, 1 fold, Hero raises $24, 1 fold, CO calls $14

Turn: ($62.50) J (2 players)

The flop is multiway and coordinated, and its not a spot I expect the PFR to cbet lightly at all. The chances of CO checking and btn checking back are pretty high so I'd rather just lead this flop $7-8ish.

As played, prob 3bet a bit bigger to 28ish on flop. Turn is meh... not even sure whats best now.

Your discounting is borked. You discounted half the JJs because he might 4bet (fair enough), but you discounted them by selecting combos with the Js and leaving out others. Thats fine until a J appears on the board. You need to figure out your equity vs the JJ part of his range and then weight it so its importance is halved. I don't think it really changes your equity here though since there are only 3 combos of JJ left and 50% weighting makes it 1.5. So there are like a million combos of 25% equity and 1 combo of 7%. But it will certainly screw up your analysis if you make the same mistake in other spots.

As played CO must check back a fair amount of the stuff we beat. He has to be worried we flopped some kind of combodraw/ straight, and even if he thinks we could have a set he doesnt necessarily expect us to fold it. Since you said hes a nit I think we can probably c/f and expect him to check back overpairs and 2 pairs and probably even 77/99. I dont think he value bets worse (apart from maybe 77). Hes always going to have some showdown value here and nits dont tend to turn made hands into bluffs. Im not sure if we c/f the river unimproved though.

I think I like a lead on this flop. i agree that everyone will play pretty face up on this flop. Guess it puts us in a meh spot if we get raised. Turn is kinda barf card. That Poker stove range look pretty good to me though. Maybe as played raise more on flop?

I like leading the flop too, I've found I'm making a lot more in situations where I flop a set and lead into the pfr and fish in the hand. The fact that you think your opponents ranges are pretty strong in this spot is all the more reason to lead then try to c/r.

Def raise bigger but I don't hate shoving the flop instead of raising, you might scare off the BB but given the situation I can't imagine CO having much of a raise/fold range at all, there's $24.50 in the pot already so getting the rest in seems straight forward. It also looks more like you're spazzing out with an AT kinda semibluff rather than you have a hand as strong a set or a straight.

As played if CO doesn't stick whatever he's raising in on the flop then it's hard to work out what the hell he has on the turn. The flop action is absolutely ideal for him to stick the rest in with sets or two pairs, and there's not enough behind to worry about slowplaying JT. Would he really raise/flat the flop with a bare ten? I just try to check it down and if villain doesn't try to put the rest of his effective 1/3 psb stack in on the turn, it makes me curious enough to consider c/c river.

If somehow villain does have a hand like 99 or JJ here, if he's not willing to put the rest of the money in himself on the turn, if stacks were slightly bigger in relation to the pot do we think they'd make a crying call to a river shove or fold? Essentially I think we'd have a hard time getting any more value out of stupidly played two pair or 77, so I think it's interesting to wonder if we can get a fold out of the top set on the flop or the top set overall vs a nit so we can win the pot more often. I hate the idea of checking the river and seeing 99 or JJ check back.

btw I really like your read/analysis of the hand. I think that poker stove range is pretty close. I read Marshals response in Minsims thread as well. Im guilty of a few of the things he brought up as well. I'll make a HH to post then as Im typing it I will realize what a tard I am and figure out the answer myself with poker stove etc.