I like leading the flop too, I've found I'm making a lot more in situations where I flop a set and lead into the pfr and fish in the hand. The fact that you think your opponents ranges are pretty strong in this spot is all the more reason to lead then try to c/r.

Def raise bigger but I don't hate shoving the flop instead of raising, you might scare off the BB but given the situation I can't imagine CO having much of a raise/fold range at all, there's $24.50 in the pot already so getting the rest in seems straight forward. It also looks more like you're spazzing out with an AT kinda semibluff rather than you have a hand as strong a set or a straight.

As played if CO doesn't stick whatever he's raising in on the flop then it's hard to work out what the hell he has on the turn. The flop action is absolutely ideal for him to stick the rest in with sets or two pairs, and there's not enough behind to worry about slowplaying JT. Would he really raise/flat the flop with a bare ten? I just try to check it down and if villain doesn't try to put the rest of his effective 1/3 psb stack in on the turn, it makes me curious enough to consider c/c river.

If somehow villain does have a hand like 99 or JJ here, if he's not willing to put the rest of the money in himself on the turn, if stacks were slightly bigger in relation to the pot do we think they'd make a crying call to a river shove or fold? Essentially I think we'd have a hard time getting any more value out of stupidly played two pair or 77, so I think it's interesting to wonder if we can get a fold out of the top set on the flop or the top set overall vs a nit so we can win the pot more often. I hate the idea of checking the river and seeing 99 or JJ check back.