Set Folding on the flop

PokerStars Game #16950589027: Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2008/04/23 - 23:00:23 (ET)
Table 'Fringilla' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 2: birdzai ($192.25 in chips)
Seat 3: ajones9er ($85.50 in chips)
Seat 4: Goodie ($295.50 in chips)
Seat 5: teradog ($51.40 in chips)
Seat 6: MrCarloCoxx ($138.50 in chips)
Goodie: posts small blind $0.50
teradog: posts big blind $1
metal_muts: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to birdzai [2h 2d]
MrCarloCoxx: calls $1
birdzai: raises $2 to $3
ajones9er: calls $3
Goodie: calls $2.50
teradog: calls $2
MrCarloCoxx: raises $2 to $5
birdzai: calls $2
ajones9er: calls $2
Goodie: calls $2
teradog: calls $2
*** FLOP *** [7c 8d 2c]
Goodie: checks
teradog: checks
MrCarloCoxx: bets $10
birdzai: raises $11 to $21
ajones9er: raises $59.50 to $80.50 and is all-in
Goodie: raises $210 to $290.50 and is all-in
teradog: folds
MrCarloCoxx: folds



ajones and goodie are decent tags
200bb deep bottom set... hobbled pot.. who foldz?


arguments for: dude its 200bb
against: dude its a set

uhhh this is pretty gay actually. why did u make a pussy raise on the flop?

dude it's a set

That draw heavy board makes me wanna call. Besides if the short stack is the one with the set you are good for the sidepot. Yeah f it i call.

pussy raise was a misclick btw, meant 31 and was shooting myslef at the time

call because you minclicked and the last raise might be put in thinking that dude that 3 bet you is doing it because of our small raise size.

I can only remember one instance when I folded a set. Top 2 plus draws are certainly in Goodie's range. I don't care about the others as they don't have full stacks. I would base my decision on my reads on Goodie alone but even close to 200bb's I don't like to fold.

uh yea this is super snap fold. a cold 4bet shove from a coldcaller decent tag 200bb deep. whats the only only only hand we beat he ever has? T9cc

eh it may not be super snap fold since i guess it may be plausible that he has 78. i dunno though.

u r beat, and if u arent beat, your opponent is drawing super super live. this is a pretty clear cut fold--ESPECIALLY since u miniraised on a super draw heavy board in a multiway pot after cold calling 2 bets preflop. your hand is face-up. best case scenario is he has 78, but i find that to be a small portion of his range and thus quite unlikely

i know that the flop raise was a misclick, but preflop raise is weak too. both hands ive seen you post today you have some weird (read: bad) bet sizing. idk if your experimenting or what, but this seems like a fairly big leak imo.

as for the hand, its tough for me to fold here because a) its a set, b) your flop raise looks really donkish, and c) because its a set. That said all your beating here is top 2, Tc9c, and maybe Ac8c, but thats unlikely. i can find a fold here usually because goodies c/r4bet is so strong, but i still think the reason your in a shitty situation here stems from your shitty pfr size and letting everyone in the pot so cheap. its not like goodie folds 77/88 pre if you make it $5 instead of $3, but you probly get 2 or 3 of the other people out of the pot.

Fold.

Board: 7c 2c 8d

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.711% 34.71% 00.00% 3780 0.00 { 2d2h }
Hand 1: 65.289% 65.29% 00.00% 7110 0.00 { 88-77, Ac8c, Tc9c, 87s, 6c5c }

raise more preflop, on teh flop, and fold now.

I agree that it's a fold, though I'd be cursing god and life for making me do it. So - what did they show down?

I call this all day. That misclick has underrepped your hand and you have a ton of outs vs any FD and overs. You have a ton of dead money and this could be 99-JJ. No way I fold a set after that flop bet.

You have 7 outs on the turn and 10 on the river to pair up and catch a FH. Your ahead of any overs with the FD so they don't matter. A FD has less that 9 outs, and an OESD has less than 8 because of all the tainted outs that pair the board. Your good here enough with 2:1 ( $300 plus in pot and $170 behind). What the hell are we putting him on that is that far ahead? 77, 88 and 78 is all.

How do we do pot odds math when there's a sidepot? If there was no sidepot then we'd need 166.5/490.5 = 33.9 percent equity, so against P4's range we would call, right? I think we might also add a few percents of equity against the range to naked NFD+overs hands and the WOW factor, so if there was no sidepot I'd call for sure.

Not sure how the sidepot affects our pot odds though, someone better at math please chime in.

At the table I would call because I never fold. After thinking about it it's probably incorrect.

Edit: miscalculated pot.

Originally Posted by Trainer_jyms

What the hell are we putting him on that is that far ahead? 77, 88 and 78 is all.

What other hands c/r 4bet shove 200bb's over a 3bet shove in a 3bet 5way pot? Oh ya...this is an overpair pretty much never btw.

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Originally Posted by Trainer_jyms

What the hell are we putting him on that is that far ahead? 77, 88 and 78 is all.

What other hands c/r 4bet shove 200bb's over a 3bet shove in a 3bet 5way pot? Oh ya...this is an overpair pretty much never btw.

15 out draws.

I folded and the big stack had 88

i wanted to make sure i wasn't going insane folding a set, and it does make sense to me to fold here, but very tough to do. I don't want to be results oriented so needed input.

bode, yes ive been experimenting a lot this week, im sure renton wants to shoot me after all the advice i got from him and i post bet sizing like that. but really im mostly just guilty of too many tables when i make all these betsizing mistakes