Set in limiped pot, facing heavy turn aggression

-Haven't played many hands with villain, but he seems like an average player
-Villain is 30/10/4 over a few hundred hands

How's the turn line? Is a flat call of his raise better?
I know I've heard lots of people say "don't fold a set", so I'm assuming
this is an obvious turn call to the push?

Cryptologic
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $44.21
CO: $170.25
Button: $140.50
SB: $39
Hero: $152.50

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is BB with
2 folds, Button calls, SB calls, Hero checks.

Flop: ($3, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.75, Button calls, SB calls.

Turn: ($8.25, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6.75, Button raises to $15, SB folds, Hero raises to $44.75, Button raises all-in $137.75, Hero??

You have a few hundred hands of stats but haven't played much with villain?

I see nothing wrong with this. There isn't a "don't go broke with a set in an un-raised pot" rule.

I raise here pre-flop FWIW

Originally Posted by swiggidy

You have a few hundred hands of stats but haven't played much with villain?

I see nothing wrong with this. There isn't a "don't go broke with a set in an un-raised pot" rule.

I raise here pre-flop FWIW

Thanks for the reply swiggidy.

Yah, my stats on villain are over 189 hands, but I've only seen about 8 of his hands to showdown. Him and I have stayed out of each others way for the most part.

Yah, I also raise here preflop pretty often, but check from time to time.

The turn action didn't make sense, since it seemed like a reasonably blank card. I don't think villain is playing his club draw this way, and there are no obvious two pair hands on this board (maybe 45).

Should I be more or less confident in felting a set on a dry board like this?

What do you think you are beating here?

Its an unraised pot so i think he has A3,36.
And i dont see him play a draw like this or any or cards that u beat on the turn.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

What do you think you are beating here?

Thats what confused me the most on this hand.. I really couldn't see many hands that would play this way.

I'm beating a set of 2's, two pair 45, a combo flush draw with a pair of 4's or 2's as well. Maybe a flush draw with a 3 in it, would push this turn hard as well, and I would still be ahead of that hand. A9, tptk, and turned inside straight draw.

I'm behind a set of 9's, 5's A3 and 36. So I guess the range of hands I'm ahead of (assuming, all the hands I listed above would play this way) is greater than those I'm behind. Though its close.

Of course there are more hands you are ahead of however the probability of villian holding those hands is far less. The probability of villian holding A3s/36s/99/55 is high IMO.

I didn't even consider :Ac:

I pay off the straight everytime, mostly because I never see it coming so my advice may not be worth much here.

Also bet more on the flop. Limped pot is always pot sized bet on flop IMO.

Originally Posted by Dislexsik

Its an unraised pot so i think he has A3,36.
And i dont see him play a draw like this or any or cards that u beat on the turn.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

Of course there are more hands you are ahead of however the probability of villian holding those hands is far less. The probability of villian holding A3s/36s/99/55 is high IMO.

Thanks for the replies guys.

So, given that you both think I'm beat, do you recommend a fold in this spot? or just a different line? Call villain's raise, and check call the river?

that does look like a tough spot, but as far as pre flop, I don't see a reason to mix it up at 100nl, I think it's worth it to raise pre there facing a deep stack button limp basically always, and bet more on the flop or c/r.

I tried plugging a pretty tight range into pokerstove for the turn:

Code:

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	25.055%  	25.06% 	00.00% 	           452 	        0.00   { 4c4d }
Hand 1: 	74.945%  	74.94% 	00.00% 	          1352 	        0.00   { 99, 55, A3s, 63s, 54s, A3o, 63o, 54o }

you're pot odds are like 33%, so I guess fold...
but I think if you decide to 3bet the turn it should be with the intent to get all in. otherwise, just call the button's raise, afterall it is repping at least 2pr.
I guess call turn block bet river strongly.

Originally Posted by benny999

that does look like a tough spot, but as far as pre flop, I don't see a reason to mix it up at 100nl, I think it's worth it to raise pre there facing a deep stack button limp basically always, and bet more on the flop or c/r.

I tried plugging a pretty tight range into pokerstove for the turn:

Code:

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	25.055%  	25.06% 	00.00% 	           452 	        0.00   { 4c4d }
Hand 1: 	74.945%  	74.94% 	00.00% 	          1352 	        0.00   { 99, 55, A3s, 63s, 54s, A3o, 63o, 54o }

you're pot odds are like 33%, so I guess fold...
but I think if you decide to 3bet the turn it should be with the intent to get all in. otherwise, just call the button's raise, afterall it is repping at least 2pr.
I guess call turn block bet river strongly.

Thanks for the reply, benny.

Yah, given that villains raise probably means at least 2 pair (and given that there are no obvious 2 pairs out there), I probably should have flat called the turn raise and lead into him on the river.

For those results oriented: I called the push, villain had A3 of clubs, turned the straight, and the river brought his flush (and not pairing the board). So even my river blocking bet (had I taken that line) would have gotten pounded hard, as he rivered the nut flush.

I definitely need to slow down and think more in these spots. Its easy to see afterwards, that villain's range was pretty narrow here, and that I should have slowed down! Damn hindsight...

It's a tough but doable fold. It's tough because so many players don't deserve your respect at this level it's hard to fold sets and not regret it.

looks like set over set but meh, can't really complain if you go broke with sets a lot...

If you just flat call the turn, I don't think you should block the river. The only reason we flat call the turn is because we are afraid we are beat. The hands that raise our river bet are the ones that beat us, but the hands that we are beating are neither folding to the river block, nor are they betting if we check.

If you do block the river, it allows villain to make a larger raise. If you don't block it, he may make a small value bet, which you can call, or he may make a larger value bet, which you can fold to. It allows you to see a showdown more often, but without costing you another bet when you do have to fold.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

What do you think you are beating here?

Originally Posted by Galapogos

It's a tough but doable fold.

A3 was my first thought. I'm flat calling the turn raise and checking the river.

pot flop, pot turn, get it allin......you have a set! i would only consider folding if he was 31/10/.5 maybe

Originally Posted by swiggidy

Also bet more on the flop. Limped pot is always pot sized bet on flop IMO.

Thanks again for all the replies.

yah I agree, its a doable fold, but can't complain too much about going broke with a set.

-Raise PF, pot the flop, and slow down after the turn raise, sounds good to me!

Though, I think in the heat of the moment, with a set, Gabe's line is the one that always shines through.

Gabe,

Reading over a lot of your replies over the last while, you definitely seem to be more on the aggressive side of the responses, in comparison to a lot of other FTR'ers.

I was just curious if this aggression is a product of the aggressiveness in the stakes you play now? Or were you equally just as aggressive back in the day when you were actually playing $100NL etc?