set when flush comes against actual solid player

villain is dogg11 who from my understanding and my short time playing with him is a very solid reg, who's a pretty big winner but doesn't seem to do anything out of the ordinary (but probably makes some good bluffs).

Anyways, this may be standard but man im like never bluffing here if i bet and that cards makes a lot hands stronger than mine. Can i possibly c/c?


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($1266)
UTG ($1225.50)
MP ($1015)
CO ($1596)
Button ($1132)
Hero (SB) ($1815)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7, 7
1 fold, MP bets $30, 2 folds, Hero calls $25, 1 fold

Flop: ($70) K, 7, 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $50, Hero raises to $160, MP calls $110

Turn: ($390) J (2 players)
[color=#CC3333]

Are you not continuing with a bluff here because while the Jh hits your range it also improves his range so much that firing a bluff isn't worth it? ie. 2h >>> Jh in terms of a turn card to continue a bluff on?

The big issue I see with c/c is that on rivers you don't fill up on he can basically fire his whole range at you if you check. It's going to be a nasty spot.

I would bet half pot with pretty much my whole range here (b/f bottom set). Makes pot $800, leaves $600 behind. In this case I would c/f heart river, c/c non heart river and shove if I improve.

Any thoughts about this strategy?

This is a really shitty spot.

You could go c/c, c/c. Then he'll likely vbet worse or possibly even bluff. That may be the best line. The thing is if we bet I really want to b/f but with a set it makes this a lot more difficult.

Can someone explain the balance/range/frequency implications of leading the flop vs this player? Thanks

leading this flop hu is not great with any hand

:Jh: is definitly the worst card in the deck as it completes T8, QT, flushes.

Either way, I don't expect him to shove turned two pairs or stuff like pair with a heart, would he?

What do you mean you're never bluffing here?

I don't like c/c at all b/c he can value town you with a straight and also take a free card with a pair + draw. I'd probably just bet and c/f river unimproved.

Originally Posted by Alexos

What do you mean you're never bluffing here?

Well basically all my semibluffs hit and all his floats hit, The only hands i could think of bluffing with are QJ and JT (which i think are actually decent bluffs, i block some J's and straights and if my read is really that he's going to fold hands like 97 its going to work a lot). But i'd have to bluff by overshoving or betting pot really.

I think betting half pot is bad cause a lot of times he's going to just continue with his A of hearts and pair. It will get most stronger hands to shove over you but KJ probably will shove too, and you do still have odds against a flush so can you really fold? And even if you can you just set yourself up to have a just slightly -EV call.

I thought about this more and i think just betting somewhere close to pot is best. 77 is just a little too strong.

This hand is really really interesting if i have KJ though!

Man if you had KJ I think its easier, I'd just bet/fold.

Given how drawy the flop is, I feel like if villain had a set he probably would just 3bet fairly often to get it in.

Assuming that, then KJ and 77 are pretty much the same here. (other than the fact that he has KJ a lot less often.. which I'm not sure is THAT relevant really).

Either way, I like betting this turn and throw up if jammed on. c/c sets us up for some bad problems I think.

77 has 10 outs against a flush or straight. KJ has 4.

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

77 has 10 outs against a flush or straight. KJ has 4.

doesn't make thaaat much difference equity wise vs their range

wtf yes it does

Originally Posted by sauce123

wtf yes it does

Well it's like 7% diff in the range i put... guess its significant

Originally Posted by Alexos

Originally Posted by sauce123

wtf yes it does

Well it's like 7% diff in the range i put... guess its significant

I agree that it makes a numerical difference, but I feel like it changes the situation from "really owned" to "less really owned'...

I'm not sure it shifts any of our decision from a fold to a clear call or vice versa.

If you're bet/calling 777 here, you should probably be b/calling KJ for the same reasons imo.

Originally Posted by Alexos

Originally Posted by sauce123

wtf yes it does

Well it's like 7% diff in the range i put... guess its significant

Well the only thing that matters is shoving range right? Lots more flushes than KK/JJ/99's right? QT and T8 also. Seems more like a 12-13% equity difference? Not to be picky but if we're specifying 7% as big than another 5-6% seems important as well.

having a set is important because check/calling is much more viable when he bets all his nutted hands/some floats/KJ on the turn- tons of rivers will go check/check vs KJ or freeze up the floats and we have some legit implied odds on a river C/R

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Originally Posted by Alexos

Originally Posted by sauce123

wtf yes it does

Well it's like 7% diff in the range i put... guess its significant

Well the only thing that matters is shoving range right? Lots more flushes than KK/JJ/99's right? QT and T8 also. Seems more like a 12-13% equity difference? Not to be picky but if we're specifying 7% as big than another 5-6% seems important as well.

yeah 7% against his shoving range, think i put straights, flushes, some set combos and some 2 pair...

Originally Posted by sauce123

having a set is important because check/calling is much more viable when he bets all his nutted hands/some floats/KJ on the turn- tons of rivers will go check/check vs KJ or freeze up the floats and we have some legit implied odds on a river C/R

i agree.. but how would you play KJ differently then?

Originally Posted by sauce123

having a set is important because check/calling is much more viable when he bets all his nutted hands/some floats/KJ on the turn- tons of rivers will go check/check vs KJ or freeze up the floats and we have some legit implied odds on a river C/R

So wait you like a c/c?

i mean sure, if its like 270 or something, if he pots it i muck

Originally Posted by Alexos

:Jh: is definitly the worst card in the deck as it completes T8, QT, flushes.

that is a good observation...

damn really gross spot... I dont think id be betting, probably c/c and chk/puke riv

b/f just seem pretty marginal in general

Oh well anyways, i bet like 350, he shoved i called and he had AA one heart. i held.

if i were him, and you bet $350 into 390, i wouldnt think you were bluffing that much

Originally Posted by gabe

if i were him, and you bet $350 into 390, i wouldnt think you were bluffing that much

He probably isnt going to be thinking your bluffing at all so wouldnt it be better to rep the weaker parts of your value range?

Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan

Originally Posted by gabe

if i were him, and you bet $350 into 390, i wouldnt think you were bluffing that much

He probably isnt going to be thinking your bluffing at all so wouldnt it be better to rep the weaker parts of your value range?

I feel like i can't do anything else, its such an awkward spot with 100bb stacks if i decide to c/r. And i dont feel i can c/r smaller or decide to bet this turn smaller, so what are my options?

Which, again, is why i like checking a lot.

His shove seems pretty bad, he's basically hoping you have QhJx or KxQh to ever get it in good here? If that's the case, Probably bet/calling your whole value range is good vs him since 77 is practically at the bottom of it?

Or did I get double leveled here? I can't figure out why he would think AAh would ever be good? Is your c/r pure bluff range that wide? ... This turn card improves everything you could possibly hold.

I dont think his play was good, although its a tough fold. My read was a little off it seems

can i get anybody method on how to play pocket 2/2's. should i raise preflop, and what is the percentage of pocket 2 vs a/q or a/k.thnks

this thread just took an interesting turn for the better

tariq I've been poring over your question but haven't come up with an appropriate answer yet.

I'll get back to you sometime in August after conferring with my expert friends who are good at poker.

Originally Posted by tariq06

can i get anybody method on how to play pocket 2/2's. should i raise preflop, and what is the percentage of pocket 2 vs a/q or a/k.thnks

only practice makes perfect. so for now don't worry about it. just keep depositing and playing 1000NL til you get it all figured out

Hi everyone,im new here but created this account to specifically ask why check folding to a big bet or check calling with implied odds and boating up on river/missing and reevaluating (yet probably almost always folding when missing boat) isnt the best line? So many draws hit on the turn and it doesnt make logical sense for opp to cbet flop and then call our check raise with a monster hand (2 pair,bigger set).Its also a really bad flop to float without some sort of draw (which he would have just hit,unless its a gutshot which is gonna hate life if we check raise him all in) and if hes calling with a pair (which is doubtful on this ever increasingly dangerous board) hes calling for pot control aka scared so theres a good chance hes not gonna turn his hand into a bluff especially when alot of our hands in his eyes arent going to fold to a turn bet after we check raise flop.I just dont understand why we would bet turn, nothing better really folds and if were raised were almost certainly beat and hating life cuz we cant boat up.

Just wanted to add that I did know hero won with set vs aces while writing this, and I dont know what the hell villain was thinking. but that even though hero won this seemingly one in a million hero call. Hero's play just looks so -ev and even bigger -ev play by villian