Squeezed pot; fold river to villain repping 3 combos?

New years resolutions:

1) Post hands on FTR.
2) Stop being laggy on early streets then nitty on the river...

Villain's only been at the table a couple of orbits, this is the second hand I've seen him play. How often is this not AJ? How's my line?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($107.80)
BB ($52.05)
UTG ($123.85)
MP ($49.75)
CO ($50)
Hero (Button) ($50.75)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, Q
1 fold, MP bets $1.75, CO calls $1.75, Hero raises to $7, 2 folds, MP calls $5.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($16.50) A, 6, A (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $6.50, MP calls $6.50

Turn: ($29.50) 8 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $11, MP calls $11

River: ($51.50) J (2 players)
MP bets $25.25 (All-In), Hero ???

He can be so wide here, and def shoving for what he perceives as value but that we beat.

I'm never folding to a half a pot donk shove with AQ on this board, to this action (small flop+turn bets).

given that he's a random and we are getting 3:1 here I think you should call especially the way you sized flop+turn because now his range can just be really wide on the river.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see Td9d once and awhile.

sorry to go in, but couldnt he also be on AK, 66,JJ besides AJ?

I think this is closer than people think, especially at these stakes. Your bet sizing is so small though (which i think is fine/good here) that it's possible he's value owning himself with QQ or getting out of line with 99 so it's still probably a crying call.

meh, I wouldn't expect to be good that often here, but probably often enough to call for that price

Originally Posted by Ravageur

I think this is closer than people think, especially at these stakes. Your bet sizing is so small though (which i think is fine/good here) that it's possible he's value owning himself with QQ or getting out of line with 99 so it's still probably a crying call.

Totally agree

if villain had $0.25 more in his stack pref-lop and made it less than pot I'd consider folding.

what was his flop timing? it's pretty relevant.

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

if villain had $0.25 more in his stack pref-lop and made it less than pot I'd consider folding.

what was his flop timing? it's pretty relevant.

Flop was an insta-call and turn was also very quick. He hesitated for a bit before shoving river.

Originally Posted by Ravageur

I think this is closer than people think, especially at these stakes. Your bet sizing is so small though (which i think is fine/good here) that it's possible he's value owning himself with QQ or getting out of line with 99 so it's still probably a crying call.

I agree, it sucks if he shows JJ but the reason you bet so small was to keep those hands in right?

AK JJ 66 88 AJ A8 A6... Pretty close but I'd have to call with the odds.